Horn of Africa in the news

I interviewed this morning with Joe DeCapua of the VOA about the Horn of Africa. My quotes in the story, "Horn of Africa Countries Very Much in the News in 2009," are in keeping with my argument that the Horn of Africa consistently has been the most conflicted corner of the world since the end of World War II.

Report on arms flows and holdings in Sudan

In Dec. 2009, the Small Arms Survey based in Geneva, Switzerland, released a good summary of arms flows to the Sudan government, Southern Sudanese government and armed groups that oppose the governments. Titled "Supply and Demand: Arms Flows and Holdings in Sudan," it indicates that all parties are building up their supplies of arms. China and Iran account for more than 90 percent of all of the northern government's imports of small arms and ammunition. Chad, Libya and Eritrea have been arming non-state groups in Darfur. You can access the report in PDF format here. Image: A graphic from the report.

Report on Oromo of Ethiopia

A report by the Christian Michelsen Institute (CMI) in Norway discusses issues of importance to the Oromo of Ethiopia. Edited by Siegfried Pausewang, it is titled "Exploring New Political Alternatives for the Oromo in Ethiopia." The sections of the report are based on presentations made at a workshop in Bergen in 2004. Comments I made at that workshop dealing with "Challenges and Prospects for the Oromo in Ethiopia" are included. You can access the entire report in PDF format here. Image: "Oromo" by Flickr user deepchi1, licensed by Creative Commons.

Blog mentions

This blog has been mentioned on several other sites over the past few days, including on a blog on Ethiopian politics and culture by Samuel Gebru, Nazret.com (the self-declared "most popular Ethiopian website") and ChicagoTalks, a site for community and citizen journalism.

Somalia's chaos spreading beyond its borders

I'm quoted in the article "Somalia’s chaos spreading far beyond its frontier and coastline" by Tristan McConnell of the Times of London. Here's the quote:

Imams in al-Shabaab territory have declared piracy unIslamic. Its continuation indicates the weakness of al-Shabaab’s grip on the Somali people. Far from garnering support for its extremist ideology, al-Shabaab “operates on the basis of intimidation and fear”, said David Shinn, a Horn of Africa specialist and former U.S. envoy in Africa.

Interview with German radio on Ethiopia

I did a radio interview with the official German radio Deutsch Wella Amharic service on US-Ethiopian relations on Dec. 15. I emphasized that U.S.-Ethiopian relations remain solid in spite of the fact that the U.S. has concerns about some human rights issues and the pace of democratization. The U.S. must balance these concerns, however, with Ethiopian support for African peacekeeping operations, cooperation with the U.S. on regional issues and a similar approach on countering terrorism. The U.S. has publicly criticized, for example, the jailing of political dissidents and the recent closure of the Amharic-language paper, Addis Neger. There are limits, however, to Washington’s criticisms. I would also point out that other important allies of Ethiopia such as China do not engage in this kind of criticism as a matter of policy. The U.S. has finally named a new ambassador, Don Booth, to Ethiopia. He is an excellent choice with significant previous African experience, including U.S. ambassador to Liberia and Zambia. He knows Africa and how to run an embassy. With luck, he will be able to arrive in Ethiopia before the national elections in May.

My remarks at Harvard's Kennedy School on piracy

Controlling Maritime Piracy

My remarks at the National Press Club 12/9 on "Al-Shabaab and the Future of Somalia"

Al-Shabaab and the Future of Somalia

Setback to Somaliland

Elections in Somaliland have been postponed five times and the National Electoral Commission has yet to set a sixth date. For those of us who wish Somaliland well, this is a setback to the democratic process that Somaliland has nurtured with such care since 1991. For a thorough analysis of the issue see the December 7, 2009, policy briefing titled “Somaliland: A Way Out of the Electoral Crisis” by the International Crisis Group. (Full PDF here.)

Aljazeera TV interview on suicide bombing at medical school graduation in Mogadishu

In an interview with Aljazeera TV news on December 3, I agreed with the AJ commentator that the bombing was most likely the action of al-Shabaab, which has a record of suicide bombings in Somalia. I emphasized that this is its way of intimidating Somalis. It is difficult for any government to prevent suicide bombings, but the weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia is especially poorly equipped to deal with these kinds of challenges. On the one hand, the international community has not provided the TFG with all the support that it has promised. More importantly, the TFG has not yet given most Somalis sufficient reason to believe that it deserves their support. The TFG must quickly develop its own loyal security force to counter the challenge of al-Shabaab. This effort is underway but it may not materialize before al-Shabaab seizes power through force and the support of foreigners. Even if al-Shabaab should manage to take power, however, I believe it will be short lived. Most Somalis are just not prepared to accept the al-Shabaab program and would eventually turn on the organization. The text of the AJ article, titled "Ministers killed in Somalia attack," can be accessed here.

"Assessing Somalia’s Terror Threat"

I'm quoted in Georg-Sebastian Holzer's article for ISN Security Watch. Here are the quotes:

Looking for a trigger In any case, the increased movements of young members of the Somali diaspora to fight in their country of origin have to be put into context. Most of the 20 Americans joined al-Shabaab in 2007 and 2008 when Somalia’s ‘Christian’ archenemy Ethiopia invaded and subsequently occupied the country with US encouragement and logistical help. Al-Shabaab was perceived as the only resistance force willing and able to confront the Ethiopian military, thereby developing a large domestic constituency as well as strong support from the diaspora. With the Ethiopian troop withdrawal, this polarizing effect of foreign occupation led to diminished grievances, making it ever more difficult for al-Shabaab to motivate members of the diaspora to join their fight. David H Shinn, former State Department coordinator for Somalia during the UNOSOM intervention and now professor at the George Washington University, told ISN Security Watch that he thinks “this recruitment activity may have peaked in the Somali diaspora of western countries.” Looking at the self-regulating power of the clans, Shinn points out that “the families of these young men now understand the threat to their children, and they are paying closer attention to the problem.”

Here's the full text of the interview: ISN Security Watch Questions on Somalia UPDATE 12/13: Quotes from my ISN Security Watch interview also appear in Global Policy Forum.