The Official Blog of Amb. David H. Shinn

Ethiopia, Lifestock and Food Security

2012-02-03T20:14:00.000-05:00

Brighter Green, a New York-based public policy action organization, used climate change as the point of entry to explore the effects of the expansion and intensification of the livestock sector in Ethiopia for food security, resource use, equity and sustainability. Titled Climate, Food Security, and Growth: Ethiopia's Complex Relationship with Livestock, the study appeared in 2011.

Brighter Green's research examines whether Ethiopia can industrialize its livestock sector, primarily to serve export markets, without forestalling or derailing development prospects for a population that is expected to reach 150-170 million by 2050. It also investigates whether such a path is viable when large numbers of Ethiopians already have difficulty gaining access to good soils, grazing land, and water. Food security is a huge national challenge and the effects of climate change are increasingly felt.

Brighter Green questions whether Ethiopia's expansion and intensification of its animal-agriculture sector is constraining its chances of coping effectively with drought and erratic weather. Africa will be among the most affected by global warming, even though it has contributed almost nothing to the problem. Africa's greenhouse gas emissions constitute less than 5 percent of the world's total, and Ethiopia's contribution is less than one-tenth of one percent.

Brighter Green recommends that the Ethiopian government adopt a long-term plan for achieving food security that emphasizes nutritious and sustainably produced foods for human consumption, reassess its heavy reliance on livestock, and end policies that encourage further industrialization of this sector, while working to expand domestic capacity to produce vegetables, fruits, pulses, and cereals for Ethiopians.

South Sudan and Secession in Africa

2012-02-01T21:21:00.000-05:00

The Brenthurst Foundation in South Africa published a report in January 2012 titled The First Crack in Africa's Map? Secession and Self-Determination after South Sudan. The author, Terence McNamee, is the Deputy Director of the Brenthurst Foundation.

The discussion paper draws on extensive discussions between senior policy makers and academics at a high-level workshop convened by the Brenthurst Foundation in collaboration with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in September 2011.

The paper concludes that while there is no evidence that South Sudan's secession has made independence more likely for other would-be states in Africa, such as Somaliland or Cabinda, the idea of self-determination is not on the wane in Africa. Nevertheless, the obstacles to independent statehood appear as formidable as ever.

U.S. Intelligence and Africa

2012-02-01T14:21:00.001-05:00

U.S. Director of National Intelligence, James R. Clapper, testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence 31 January 2012 on global issues. He also released an Unclassified Statement for the Record on the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community.

The unclassified document contains an analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa on pages 18-19 and North Africa on pages 14-15. The sections concerning Africa deal only with Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, the Great Lakes Region, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia.

China-South Africa Relations

2012-02-01T14:08:00.003-05:00

The Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University in South Africa published in December 2011 a paper on the growing partnership between South Africa and China. The author is Haibin Niu, a research fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, who was a visiting scholar at the Centre for Chinese Studies.

The paper, A Chinese Perspective on South Africa as an Emerging Power: Global, Regional and Bilateral Relations, emphasizes the regional and global importance of South Africa now that it has become a member of BRICS with Chinese support.

Somali Sub-national Entities

2012-01-31T13:00:00.000-05:00

In July 2011, Chatham House in London hosted a meeting for persons interested in the emergence of Somali sub-national entities such as Somaliland, Puntland and Galmudug. It published in December 2011 a summary of the results of that meeting titled Somalia's Transition: What Role for Sub-National Entities?

Persons attending the meeting concluded that the establishment of sub-national entities is not necessarily contrary to the prospects of establishing national government, but fitting the two processes together requires a nuanced reading of the transitional Charter. Emerging entities that can operate within a broad constitutional framework may well help towards building a viable federal government where authority is confirmed from established federal states and authorities.

Land Leases in the Horn of Africa

2012-01-31T12:22:00.001-05:00

Chatham House in London has added to the growing body of literature on land leasing, referred to by some as "land-grabbing" in the Horn of Africa. Jason Mosley authored a study titled Peace, Bread and Land: Agricultural Investments in Ethiopia and the Sudans dated January 2012.

The report concludes that those who suggest governments are the unwitting victims of "land-grabbing" is a misleading oversimplification. Although accurate information on many of these deals is extremely limited, the governments know what they are up to.

Interview with Somaliland Publications

2012-01-31T11:05:00.001-05:00

Somaliland reporter Mohamoud Ali Mohamed asked me to comment on issues related to Somaliland, Somalia and Ethiopia. The brief interview appeared in Somali in Geeska Afrika on 28 January 2012 and in English in The Horn on 30 January 2012. You can access the interviews in both languages by clicking the appropriate paper.

For information on the 23 February London Conference on Somalia, click here.

Sudan's Ties with Neighbors

2012-01-28T09:30:00.001-05:00

The Enough Project published in January 2012 a useful survey of Sudan and South Sudan's relations with their neighbors: Egypt, Libya, Chad, Eritrea, DRC, CAR, Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya. Written by Omer Ismail and Annette LaRocco, the brief report describes the state of relations between these two countries and the impact of neighbors on issues such as borders, oil and political stability.

You can read the report here.

Conflict in the Horn of Africa

2012-01-27T10:52:00.000-05:00

The Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington organized a group of people interested in the Horn of Africa and asked Paul D. Williams of George Washington University to prepare an analysis of conflict in the region and offer some recommendations to mitigate this conflict. Although the study is dated October 2011, the Woodrow Wilson Center published it in mid-January 2012. Titled Horn of Africa: Webs of Conflict & Pathways to Peace, a number of us contributed to the final product.

The study notes that the Horn of Africa has experienced more than 200 armed conflicts since 1990. The U.S. government has for too long looked at the Horn through lenses which have emphasized regime security, counterterrorism, religious fanaticism and tribalism. The focus on regime security, counterterrorism and extremism has clearly failed to produce either a stable or peaceful region.

The paper suggests that viewing the Horn through a conflict resolution and peacebuilding lens would focus policymakers' attention on an alternative agenda focused on issues of good governance, the rule of law, human security, and supporting local state-society complexes that work for their people.

The central purpose of the study is to to illuminate the complex political terrain in which policies to build peace and resolve conflict will have to take place and to make tentative suggestions as to what priorities should guide an alternative comprehensive and integrated approach to the Horn.

A companion document titled Pathways to Peace in the Horn of Africa: What Role for the United States? offers a set of recommendations for how the U.S. government might engage more constructively with the states and peoples in the Horn to build peace.

Radicalization of Kenyan Muslims

2012-01-27T10:24:00.000-05:00

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 25 January 2012 an excellent analysis titled Kenyan Somali Islamist Radicalisation that lays out the concerns for the Somali Muslim community in Kenya. There is also a significant Swahili Muslim community in Kenya, which is not the focus on this analysis.

ICG argues that the militant al-Shabaab movement has built a cross-border presence and a clandestine support network among Muslim populations in the northeast, Nairobi and along the Swahili coast. It is trying to radicalize and recruit youth from these communities, often capitalizing on long-standing grievances against the national government. This problem could grow more severe with the October 2011 intervention into Somalia by Kenyan military forces.

Radicalization is a grave threat to Kenya's security and stability. It would be a mistake, however, to respond to the challenge solely through a counterterrorism strategy.

The ICG proposes the following Kenyan government response:

--Recognize that a blanket or draconian crackdown on Kenyan Somalis, or Kenyan Muslims in general, would radicalize more individuals and add to the threat of domestic terrorism.
--Although there is a link between radicalization and terrorism,countertrerrorism tactics aimed only at stopping al-Shabaab and other militant groups should not become the only official response.
--Allocate additional developmental resources to North Eastern Province.
--Study madrases, perhaps through a local university, to learn which are most radical and influential, both to better understand the problem of radicalization and to moderate extremist teachings; create a Muslim Advisory Council of respected leaders, open to hardliners, but representing all Kenyan Muslims.
--Develop a process, with community input, for selection of a Grand Mufti in Kenya.

Al-Shabaab and Somalia

2012-01-26T20:33:00.003-05:00

The Navanti Group hosted a workshop in New York City 24-26 January 2012 for representatives of various U.S. government agencies and local law envforcement jurisdictions. I gave on 25 January a presentation on al-Shabaab and Somalia in the 21st century. I tried to cover the importance in Somalia of political Islam, some of the larger regional issues and the problems posed by forcing Somali hawalas out of business.

You can read my remarks here.

Seal Team 6 Saves Hostages

2012-01-26T11:56:00.002-05:00

BBC Radio asked me to comment on 25 January 2012 concerning the release of the American and Danish hostages from a location in Somalia by the U.S. Navy Seal Team Six, the same organization that attacked Osama bin Laden's compound in Pakistan last year. The Seals successfuly freed both hostages, who were working for a Danish non-governmental organization.

The BBC was interested if this effort was a "one off" event or the harbinger of more to come from the U.S. military. I responded that it was a "one off" event that occurred because of the failing health of the American hostage. While there have been other U.S. special forces activites in Somalia, notably the killing about two years ago of a senior al-Qaeda operative south of Mogadishu, and there may well be more such engagements in the future, this does not portend significant military action in Somalia by the United States.

In my view, there will not be a military solution to the situation in Somalia. At some point, the Somalis must achieve a political solution and that time does not seem to be close.

The hostage taking of the American and Dane underscores the confusing nature of insecurity in Somalia. They were kidnapped near Galkayo by Somalis linked to pirates in Puntland. Their captors periodically moved them around Puntland. Al-Shabaab was not involved in this kidnapping.

The event should also cause potential kidnappers in Somalia to think long and hard before they capture Americans. It may result in a shortened lifespan for the kidnappers.

China and Soft Power in Sub-Saharan Africa

2012-01-21T13:35:00.002-05:00

JoAnne Wagner, a career Foreign Service Officer now serving as the State Department's Deputy Director for Pakistan, published an article titled "Going Out": Is China's Skillful Use of Soft Power in Sub-Saharan Africa a Threat to U.S. Interests? It appeared in the 1st quarter 2012 edition of Joint Forces Quarterly.

She concludes, on balance, that the genuine possibility for jointly increasing African stability, while pursuing a more muscular enagement with China (and thus laying further groundwork for addressing more intractable problems such as climate change), argues for overcoming probable Chinese, African, and domestic reluctance and attempting a partnership.

Additionally, the reasons for pursuing cooperation are deeply pragmatic. While some may fear that a partnership-focused adaptation to Chinese facts-on-the-ground may make the United States appear weak, realistically speaking, China will--in fact, must--continue to pursue what are genuine domestic imperatives through its African ventures. Better, then, to try to help steer the Sino train than to attempt to derail it.

I have made essentially the same argument on this blog. See the writings in the right-hand column under China-Africa.

VOA Interview on Al-Shabaab

2012-01-20T22:41:00.002-05:00

VOA's Encounter program interviewed Peter Pham, Director of the Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington, and me on Boko Haram in Nigeria and al-Shabaab in Somalia. The program aired on January 21. Dr. Pham covered Boko Haram while I discussed al-Shabaab. You can listen to the program here.

In response to questions from Carol Castiel, who moderates Encounter, I suggested that while al-Shabaab has been weakened, it still remains strong enough to withstand the combined opposition of African Union forces (AMISOM) in Mogadishu, Kenyan forces in the southern most part of Somalia, Ethiopian troops who recently returned to the area around Beletweyne in central Somalia near the Ethiopian border and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces. Al-Shabaab is its own worst enemy and will eventually fail but has the capacity to hold substantial parts of south and central Somalia for several years. The TFG has not yet become a viable alternative.

The Kenyans have not articulated a coherent plan for countering al-Shabaab. Judging by public statements, their goals change from week to week. In any event, Kenyan forces cannot afford to remain indefinitely in Somalia. I doubt that Ethiopia plans to repeat its mistake of late 2006 by moving deeply into Somalia. It probably will secure the area around Beletweyne, turn it over to friendly Somali forces and then leave. AMISOM can hold Mogadishu but does not have and will not obtain the capacity to move much beyond Mogadishu. If this analysis is correct, the result is a stalemate although I believe al-Shabaab will continue to make serious tactical mistakes and become even weaker over time.

When asked about the role of American drones in the conflict, I noted that the United States operates drones from Arba Minch in Ethiopia, from the Seychelles where drones were established initially to counter Somali piracy and probably from Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa in Djibouti. Nearly all of the drone flights are used to collect intelligence, which is a perfectly legitimate use for them. They should not, however, become the default option for "removing people." While they are more precise than Cruise missiles, they also come with downsides and should only be used judiciously in Somalia.

I suggested there may be some lessons from Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco for those parts of Sub-Saharan Africa that are predominantly Muslim or have large Muslim minorities. While I do not believe organizations like Boko Haram, al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb are the wave of the future, political Islam (for lack of a better term) has reasserted itself in North Africa in free and fair elections and, if given the chance, would probably obtain a major following in certain other areas of Africa such as Somalia.

US View of China-Africa Relations

2012-01-17T20:29:00.001-05:00

The January 2012 issue no. 30 of Outre-Terre is a 440-page special edition in French devoted to China-Africa relations. It is edited by Michel Korinman and Thierry Pairault and contains forty-seven contributions by a wide variety of authors from around the world, including one by me. For a list of the articles visit here.

You can access an English translation of my contribution, which was written in January 2011, titled The United States Reassesses the China-Africa Relationship. Or see it embedded below.

China-Africa Relations - US Assessment - Outre Terre - Jan. 2011

Ethiopia's Villagization Program

2012-01-17T11:07:00.001-05:00

Human Rights Watch issued a highly critical press release on 16 January 2012 concerning Ethiopia's villagization program. It alleged that the government is forceably relocating about 70,000 people from western Gambella to new villages that lack adequate facilities. You can read the entire press release titled "Ethiopia: Forced Relocations Bring Hunger, Hardship".

The government of Ethiopia has denied the charges. A 17 July 2012 Reuters article by Aaron Maasho titled "Ethiopia Forcing Thousands Off Land--US Rights Group" quoted government spokesman Bereket Simon: "There is no evidence to back the claim. This programme is taking place with the full preparation and participation of regional authorities, the government and residents." The government added that the program is intended to lease land for purposes of technology transfer and to boost agricultural production.

Who Benefits from Somali Piracy Ransoms?

2012-01-12T17:15:00.000-05:00

Dr. Anja Shortland of Brunel University has prepared a fascinating study that analyzes who benefits from Somali piracy ransoms. Published in January 2012 by Chatham House, it concludes that about one-third of pirate ransoms are converted into Somali shillings, benefiting casual labor and pastoralists in Puntland. Pirates probably make a significant contribution to economic development in the provincial capitals of Garowe and Bosasso. Puntland's political elites are therefore unlikely to move decisively against piracy. Coastal villages have gained little from hosting pirates and may be open to a negotiated solution which offers a more attractive alternative.

Piracy has created employment and considerable multiplier effects in the Puntland economy, even if a significant proportion of the proceeds is invested in foreign goods or channeled to foreign financiers. The distribution of ransom money follows traditional patterns in Somalia, involving considerable redistribution and investment in urban centers rather than coastal villages. Piracy-related gains have been largely offset, however, by the rise in international food prices. The poor are no better off in absolute terms.

The total cost of piracy off the Horn of Africa (including the counter-piracy measures) was estimated to be in the region of $7 to $12 billion for 2010, while ransoms brought in about $250 million. Even if Somali communities received all of the ransom money, replacing this source of income with a combination of foreign-funded security forces and development aid would be considerably cheaper than continuing with the status quo.

The report is titled Treasure Mapped: Using Satellite Imagery to Track the Developmental Effects of Somali Piracy.

Somaliland Roundtable

2012-01-11T09:47:00.000-05:00

Chatham House in London held a small roundtable in July 2011 with Somaliland politiciains, civil society, diaspora and thinkers along with experts from key international partners. This discussion focused on Somaliland's place in the world and sought to encourage new thinking about Somaliland.

Chatham House published in December 2011 a summary of the session. One conclusion was that Somaliland could benefit from being part of a formal process that would offer a path to regularizing its position in the eyes of Somalia, the African Union and the wider international community.

To read the entire report, go to Somaliland's Place in the World.

Horn of Africa Food Security Conference

2012-01-10T14:12:00.000-05:00

The National Defense University in Washington is hosting a conference on Tuesday, March 8, titled "Horn of Africa Food Security Crisis: Implications for United States Africa Command".

The keynote speaker will be General Carter Ham, Commander, U.S. Africa Command. There will be five panels dealing with political and security issues in the Horn of Africa, environmental issues, open information sharing, NGO and IO roles in building local capacity and the U.S. Africa Command's approaches and way ahead.

Together with ambassador John Herbst, Center for Complex Operations, and assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Johnnie Carson, I will participate in the panel on political and security issues.

Go here to register for the conference.

Nuer-Murle Conflict in South Sudan

2012-01-06T16:14:00.000-05:00

Alhurra Television asked me to comment 6 January 2012 on the conflict in Jonglei State of South Sudan between the Lou Nuer and Murle people.

I explained that this conflict has deep roots related to cattle raiding and the cultural requirement that young men pay a bride price in cattle. The current round of cattle raiding apparently began last June when there was a small Lou Nuer raid against the Murle that resulted in some deaths. The Murle responded with a more serious attack in August against the Lou Nuer, killing a larger number of people.

The most recent attack that began in late December has resulted in as many as 3,000 deaths and threatens to disrupt stability throughout much of Jonglei State. So far, the government in Juba, represented by Vice President Riak Machar, has been unable to end the current fighting. This is an embarrassment for the new South Sudan government, although it is essentially a local issue that does not seriously threaten the South Sudan government.

Young Lou Nuer carried out the latest attack in the name of the Nuer White Army, a group that formed in the early 1990s with the help of Riak Machar and then was forced to disband after the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. For excellent background on the army, see The White Army: An Introduction and Overview by John Young published in 2007 by The Small Arms Survey.

Gender and statebuilding in South Sudan

2012-01-05T20:46:00.000-05:00

The United States Institute of Peace published in December 2011 a report titled Gender and Statebuilding in South Sudan. The author is Nada Mustafa Ali, a part-time faculty member in global studies at the New School in New York and a consultant and activist.

Ali concludes that the government of South Sudan, with the support of the international community and regional partners, should ensure a strong voice for and meaningful participation of women at all stages of statebuilding.

It should also create a conducive environment for women's participation, human rights, and gender equality by addressing women's immediate needs of access to quality health and education, and help them in their quest to live in a country free of all forms of violence.

Somali youth radicalization in the Diaspora

2012-01-03T14:37:00.004-05:00

The Canadian Friends of Somalia, a non-profit organization serving the Somali community of Canada, hosted a conference in Ottawa in December 2010 dealing with Somali youth radicalization and support for al-Shabaab. It subsequently released a report based on the conference titled Youth Radicalization: Somali Identity and Support for Al-Shabaab in the U.K., the U.S., and Canada. At the time of the report, an estimated 40 American-Somalis and 20 Canadian-Somalis were believed to have joined al-Shabaab. I participated in the conference.

You can request a copy of the 16-page report here.

Somali piracy

2012-01-02T14:32:00.005-05:00

Somali piracy is the most substantial non-state threat to the free and peaceful use of the sea since the Second World War according to Martin N. Murphy, senior resident fellow, Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington. Murphy said Somali piracy demands a response that matches its seriousness.

Murphy lays out a thoughtful analysis titled Somali Piracy: Why Should We Care? of the challenge in the December 2011 issue of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) for Defense and Security Studies Journal published in London.

He asserts there are six reasons why Somali piracy should concern us: political implications, wider geostrategic issues, naval performance, the privatization of naval force, human security consequences and economic costs.

Short to medium-term measures need to focus first on taking down the pirate leaders. Over the long-term, ending piracy calls for building on the antipathy to piracy within Somalia, which at the moment is concentrated in local communities, women's groups and among certain Imams. These groups and local business interests need to be enrolled in multiple, generally small-scale programs that work from the bottom-up to expand employment in existing industries,such as livestock raising, fishing and construction, and the creation of new opportunities in occupations as they are identified by local people.

Somalia remains worst humanitarian crisis

2011-12-21T20:47:00.001-05:00

William J. Garvelink, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former head of USAID's humanitarian assistance efforts in Somalia, and Farha Tahir, also of CSIS, gave an interview 16 December 2011 on the famine in Somalia.

They acknowledged that the number of Somalis at risk of starvation has dropped from 750,000 to 250,000 but emphasized it remains the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. They noted that Kenya's intervention into Somalia has been mismanaged and is causing more harm than good. They commented that remittances from the Somali diaspora have played a critical role in cushioning the impact of the crisis. They suggested the situation will become worse before it gets better. They argued that only broad cooperation among the African Union forces, the Kenyan intervention force, Somali Transitional Federal Government, United Nations and non-governmental organizations can prevent imminent starvation.

You can read the entire interview at http://csis.org/print/34174.

New book on China-Africa relations

2011-12-19T19:04:00.000-05:00

The University of Pennsylvania Press will publish in June 2012 a book titled China and Africa: A Century of Engagement by David Shinn and Joshua Eisenman. The book represents five years of research on this topic and is intended to be the most comprehensive book on China-Africa relations since the early 1970s.

Global Financial Integrity (GFI) identifies problem in Ethiopia

2011-12-18T00:43:00.000-05:00

The NGO Global Financial Integrity just released its most recent report on illicit financial flows from developing countries. The situation in Ethiopia clearly deteriorated in 2009 as noted in a Bloomberg article, in which I am quoted.

I am including, however, a more detailed analysis of a separate statement about Ethiopia by the co-author of the GFI report. While the 2009 numbers for Ethiopia are worrisome, when put in perspective of other African countries, it raises questions why Ethiopia was singled out for criticism by the co-author of the report. What is most important is what happened in 2010 and 2011. These figures are not yet available.

Ethiopia and 2011 Global Financial Integrity Report

Growing threat to Southern Sudan: displaced people

2011-12-17T18:25:00.003-05:00

The NGO Refugees International released a brief report on 15 December 2011 titled “South Sudan: Displacement Plagues World’s Newest Nation.”

It describes the problem South Sudan faces as tens of thousands of persons fled south following recent fighting in Sudan’s Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile States. Hundreds of thousands of additional people are displaced due to violence within South Sudan and there has been a large influx of southerners returning from northern cities. This crisis could overwhelm South Sudan.

Land deals in South Sudan

2011-12-17T18:23:00.000-05:00

The Oakland Institute, a policy-focused NGO, recently issued its South Sudan report on investment deals in the country. Based on research conducted between June and October 2011, it found that from the beginning of 2007 until the end of 2010, private interests sought or secured 5.15 million hectares of land in the agriculture, biofuels, forestry, carbon credit, and ecotourism sectors. This constitutes more than 8 percent of South Sudan’s total land area and, it argues, threatens to undermine the land rights of rural communities, increase food insecurity, entrench poverty, and skew development patterns in South Sudan. It looks at four case studies involving investment from the United States, Finland, UAE, and Egypt.

The report concludes that most of the land deals fail to give due weight to the land rights of community land owners. Opportunistic companies are taking advantage of unclear procedures for land allocation to secure favorable deals with power brokers at the local level. Large-scale land investments that are currently underway are not complying with domestic law. International financial institutions and donor countries may be compromising the sustainability of peace building efforts by encouraging the government of South Sudan to make land available to foreign companies for industrial agriculture. The report urges the government of South Sudan to place limits on land-based investment until it can put in place an appropriate regulatory framework.

U.S.-China Engagement in Africa

2011-12-14T22:50:00.000-05:00

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in November 2011 a report titled “China’s Emerging Global Health and Foreign Aid Engagement in Africa.” I contributed a paper titled “U.S.-China Collaboration on Health and Agriculture in Africa.” The monograph is a compilation of six papers that were written for the Conference on China’s Emerging Global Health and Foreign Aid Engagement sponsored by CSIS and the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing on 24 May 2011.

You can read the entire report in English here and in Chinese here.

Famine and Food Shortages Remain at Crisis Levels in Somalia

2011-12-14T22:44:00.001-05:00

Refugees International issued an excellent summary on 13 December 2011 of the ongoing food shortage and famine problem in the Horn of Africa. The main focus of the report is Somalia.

It notes that the situation grows more complicated with the onset of rains, which encourage the spread of disease in displacement camps, and fighting in southern Somalia. The most vulnerable populations are new Somali refugees in Kenya and Ethiopia, long-term refugees at Dadaab in Kenya, internally displaced Somalis in Mogadishu, and civilian populations throughout south and central Somalia.

The refugee population at Dabaab has reached 463,000, the refugees camps inside Ethiopia have 138,000 persons, IDPs in Mogadishu number at least 370,000, and the largest number of affected Somalis are in Al-Shabaab controlled territory in south and central Somalia where aid continues to be looted by Al-Shabaab and other armed actors on its way to distribution points.

Read the brief report here.

Al-Shabaab and the future of Somalia

2011-12-12T23:18:00.001-05:00

Carol Castiel's 30-minute Encounter program on the Voice of America on 11 December 2011 focused on combating al-Shabaab and the future of Somalia. I was one of two guests on the program. You can listen to the entire program here.

China’s agricultural investment in Africa

2011-12-12T23:12:00.004-05:00

The South African Institute of International Affairs published a good study in November 2011 by Helen Lei Sun titled “Understanding China’s Agricultural Investments in Africa.”

While it stays out of the “land grab” debate, where there is more myth than fact, it documents Chinese FDI in Africa’s agricultural sector.

The paper analyzes the driving factors behind China’s agricultural investment in Africa, particularly from the perspectives of economic development and market factors, and concerns about food security. It considers the implications of China’s experiences in terms of institutions, productivity and technology. Finally, the paper addresses the issues of green technology in the context of China’s agricultural investment in Africa.

The report acknowledges that it is hard to assess the impact of China’s investment in Africa. It is, nevertheless, important to understand why China has accelerated its agricultural investment in Africa, and the extent to which China’s investment has had an impact on African agricultural growth.

Somalia, U.S. policy and the famine

2011-12-08T21:57:00.001-05:00

Aljazeera English Fault Lines program produced a generally balanced half hour program on the situation in Somalia. Titled “Crisis in the Horn of Africa,” it is both critical of U.S. policy while, at the same time, allowing U.S. officials, past and present, to explain U.S. policy.

NGO report on South Sudan: excellent recommendations and glaring omission

2011-12-08T21:44:00.001-05:00

A report written by Rebecca Barber on behalf of 38 NGOs engaged in South Sudan proposes a series of excellent recommendations for providing assistance to the new government of South Sudan.

The 6 September 2011 report emphasizes that South Sudan is acutely vulnerable to recurring conflict and climatic shocks. The situation is exacerbated by a continuing influx of returnees, restricted movement across the northern border, high fuel prices, and regional shortages of food stocks. South Sudan challenges normal development paradigms and fits awkwardly in the humanitarian relief-recovery-post-conflict development continuum.

The paper highlights ten priority areas for action based on the experience of NGOs operating in South Sudan and lessons learned during the Comprehensive Peace Agreement period. A summary of the recommendations follows:

Balance development assistance with continued support for emergency humanitarian needs.
Understand conflict dynamics.
Involve communities and strengthen civil society.
Ensure an equitable distribution of assistance.
Prioritize the most vulnerable and ensure social protection.
Promote pro-poor, sustainable livelihoods.
Strengthen government capacity, from the bottom up.
Allow sufficient time for transition towards government management of international aid.
Provide timely, predictable funds.
Ensure integrated programming.

For all its value, the report has a glaring omission that casts doubt on its credibility. The overwhelming problem of corruption in South Sudan is talked around, but not met head-on. Unless you read carefully between the lines, you would not know corruption is a problem.

South Sudan has received between $8 and $10 billion in oil revenue. Other than pay salaries to a bloated military and civil service, there is very little to show for this staggering amount of money. This NGO report is essentially a plea for more donor aid, albeit aid administered more effectively. The report should first insist that the government of South Sudan explain what it has done with $8 to $10 billion before calling on the donor community to pump yet more money into the country.

At a minimum, it should highlight the problem of corruption and acknowledge there will be no serious development in South Sudan until corruption is brought under control.

War in Sudan’s Nuba Mountains

2011-12-07T21:52:00.000-05:00

Journalist Julie Flint, who has written extensively on Sudan, published a brief report on the Nuba Mountains under the auspices of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Dated 2 November 2011, and titled “Return to War in Sudan’s Nuba Mountains,” it looks at what is driving the fighting in the Nuba Mountains and is based on her most recent visit there in September.

She reports that the crisis will continue indefinitely without a political agreement that acknowledges the Nuba rebellion is self-sustaining and reflects wider malaise within the new Republic of Sudan.

An overview of China-Africa relations

2011-12-05T23:01:00.000-05:00

Update: Dec. 6, 2011: The text also appears in the Journal of Foreign Relations, and it was covered by the Brown Daily Herald.

I am attaching below my comments on China-Africa relations delivered at the Chinua Achebe Colloquium at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, on 4 December 2011. This two-day event hosted a distinguished group of Africanists who covered the Arab Spring as it applies to Africa, Darfur, South Sudan, Zimbabwe and China-Africa relations.

China - Africa Speech - Brown U. - Dec. 2011

China and the Horn of Africa

2011-12-05T22:37:00.002-05:00

You can access here remarks that I made on 2 December 2011 during a panel at the Middle East Studies Association.

China and the Horn of Africa - MESA - 2011

European Union and China compete for development of Ethiopia

2011-11-30T22:40:00.001-05:00

The Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University in South Africa published in November a paper titled “Competing for Development? The European Union and China in Ethiopia.”

Written by Christine Hackenesch, a researcher at the German Development Institute, it assesses the competitive pressure that China’s growing presence in Africa puts on EU development policy in Ethiopia.

For the EU, Ethiopia is the largest aid recipient in Africa. For China, Ethiopia is not so much an aid recipient as an important economic and political ally in its Africa policy.

The paper argues that Chinese financial flows to Ethiopia are largely complementary to European aid, providing the Ethiopian government with resources needed to implement its ambitious development strategy. China has emerged as an alternative partner to the Ethiopian government, providing a different development strategy and an alternative approach to economic and political reform.

Regional economic cooperation in the Horn of Africa

2011-11-29T22:44:00.010-05:00

Chatham House in London issued a report in November titled “Hostage to Conflict: Prospects for Building Regional Economic Cooperation in the Horn of Africa” by Sally Healy. It focuses on the eight members of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD).

The report emphasizes there are strong political and structural obstacles to regional economic integration.

On the other hand, informal trade relations offer the opportunity for integration. Healy urges that more attention be given to the development of transport corridors to sea ports, the management of shared water resources, common management of pastoral rangelands, and improved energy security.

She recommends more support for IGAD and less attention to a state-centric approach to regional integration.

Israel to help Kenya improve security

2011-11-29T22:00:00.002-05:00

The online World Politics Review ran an article dated 28 November 2011 by Brian Dabbs titled "Israel Targets East Africa with Kenya Security Pact."

Although the first two paragraphs appear here, the entire article in only available by subscription.

I am quoted in the article as pointing out that this new development will serve as a potential recruitment tool for al-Shabaab only if it involves Israeli support for Kenya's intervention in Somalia.

This does not appear to be the intent of the security arrangement; it seems to focus on helping to improve internal Kenyan security. If this is, in fact, the case, it will be very difficult for al-Shabaab to use the pact for propaganda purposes.

Here's my quote from the article: “If [homeland security] is the focus, I don’t see it as an advantage to al-Shabaab,” said David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso. “It will only be a recruitment tool if it involves Israelis in Somalia.”

HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia and Africa

2011-11-28T22:53:00.009-05:00

The Ethiopian non-governmental organization People to People, where I serve as an adviser, regularly publishes the Horn of Africa Journal of AIDS.

The most recent edition, vol. 6, issue 1, has just come out. It focuses retrospectively on the problem of HIV/AIDS in Africa.

I contributed a brief commentary on pages 9-10.

Food security: China and Africa

2011-11-25T00:24:00.008-05:00

Standard Bank of South Africa released an excellent report on 18 November, 2011, titled “China’s Food Security Challenge: What Role for Africa?”

Written by Simon Freemantle and Jeremy Stevens, it reviews China’s growing food security needs, emphasizing that most agricultural imports now come from Asia and the Western Hemisphere. In 2010, for example, the Americas accounted for 99 percent of all soybean exports to China. In 2009, the only agricultural imports from Africa that exceeded 10 percent of China’s total imports were wood, tobacco, oil seeds, and cocoa.

Looking to the future, however, China is expanding its agricultural cooperation with Africa. In 2009, China was conducting about 200 agricultural and 23 fishery projects in Africa.

Although China considered in 2008 a policy of acquiring significant amounts of land in Africa, it has backed away from that idea following criticism that it was seeking to grab African lands. Consequently, China is playing a minimal role today in efforts to lease land in Africa. On the other hand, China is seeking to expand collaboration with African countries in the production of cotton, soybeans, coffee, tea, rubber, wine, sisal, and tobacco.

Israeli arms transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa

2011-11-24T00:29:00.011-05:00

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published in October 2011 a carefully researched report on Israeli arms transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa covering the period 2006-2010.

The author is Siemon T. Wezeman, a senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. From 2006-2010, Israel accounted for less than 1 percent of transfers of major weapons to Sub-Saharan Africa. Deliveries consisted mainly of small numbers of artillery, unmanned aerial vehicles, armored vehicles, and patrol craft. Israel also delivered small arms and light weapons (SALW), military electronics, and training to several countries. Israel does not report its transfers of SALW.

The largest recipients of major weapons were Cameroon, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Nigeria, Rwanda, Seychelles, South Africa, and Uganda. There is no systematic information for the delivery of Israeli SALW. While Africa is a small market for Israeli weapons, Israel has been trying recently to expand its weapons sales.

In early 2010, Kenya expressed an interest in buying weapons from Israel to counter the al-Shabaab threat from Somalia. The commander of the Kenyan armed forces visited Israel to strengthen military cooperation. The Israeli minister for public security paid a return visit and referred to Kenya as a “critical ally” and promised “much more support on the war against terrorism,” particularly as it involved Somalia.

Here's the full text of the paper:
Israeli arms transfers to sub-Saharan Africa

Problems facing youth in South Sudan

2011-11-22T20:12:00.000-05:00

The U.S. Institute of Peace issued in November 2011 a good report on the role of youth in state building in South Sudan.

It focuses particularly on the problems caused by rising dowry or bride price. The authors are Marc Sommers, a visiting researcher at Boston University’s African Studies Center, and Stephanie Schwartz, a doctoral student at Columbia.

Study on aid from non-DAC donors

2011-11-22T19:55:00.001-05:00

The Center for Global Development in Washington released in November 2011 an interesting paper that discusses foreign aid offered by non-Development Assistance Countries (DAC) such as China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Venezuela, Turkey, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE.

The paper, written by Julie Walz and Vijaya Ramachandran, divides these donors into three categories of aid delivery: the DAC model, the Arab model, and the Southern model. The study laments the lack of transparency in the aid programs of most of these countries.

In a comparative table that provides a lower and upper estimate for the aid levels of several countries, including China, I believe the paper does a disservice by providing an upper limit estimate for China of $25 billion of aid in 2009.

The paper notes that the upper estimate comes from an NYU Wagner School study that includes pledges of aid, loans, and government-sponsored investment projects. This is unfortunate as most of this engagement does not qualify as aid. It is misleading to suggest that it does constitute aid by using the $25 billion figure as the upper estimate. The legitimate figure for China’s global aid is about $4 billion.

Bräutigam calculated that China’s annual aid to Africa is now about $2 billion. It is generally agreed that almost 50 percent of China’s aid goes to Africa. It is reasonable to estimate that the rest of the world receives another $2 billion, making a total of $4 billion.

Somalia and Jubaland

2011-11-22T11:30:00.003-05:00

Source: El Pais. Caption: "Un soldado monta guardia en una céntrica calle de Nairobi./EFE"

I was quoted in an article dealing with Somalia’s proposed Jubaland/Azania in the Spanish paper El Pais. You can read the Spanish-language piece here.

Here are the English responses I provided to the reporter on Nov. 4:

I believe it is a goal of Kenya to remove al-Shabaab from an area roughly coinciding with Jubaland and then, in the ideal world, turn it over to friendly Somali forces. The question is whether this is realistic. I believe the Kenyans can force al-Shabaab out of this region, but Kenya has neither the will nor the resources to hold the territory indefinitely. In fact, if Kenya stays long in Somalia it will lead to a new series of problems for the anti-Shabaab forces. I also question whether there are sufficient friendly Somali forces to hold Jubaland once Kenya has forced out al-Shabaab, but hope my doubts are wrong.

The U.S. would certainly support the defeat of al-Shabaab in this region and is probably giving intelligence and possibly other support to Kenya for this purpose. The U.S. would not recognize an independent Azania just as it does not recognize an independent Puntland and Somaliland. On the the other hand, if anti-Shabaab Somalis obtain wide support in Azania the U.S. would probably provide the same kind of support that it does for Somaliland and Puntland. I am not in a position to comment on the position of other Western countries.

I don't know enough about the personalities of the Somalis who claim to have a following in Azania. My fear is that no Somali is widely accepted throughout the Jubaland region. This will complicate all efforts to create a viable region free of al-Shabaab.

Al-Shabaab contacts with al-Qaeda and networks in the West

2011-11-21T10:30:00.010-05:00

Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) International Reports recently published a study titled “The Somali Shabaab Militias and Their Jihadist Networks in the West.”

The author, Dirk Baehr, is working on a Ph.D. on jihadism, processes of youth radicalization and strategies of de-radicalization. The study looks at al-Shabaab recruitment in the United States, Sweden, and Germany.

He argues that recruits from the Somali diaspora are today more useful for propaganda purposes and as suicide bombers. He expresses concern that al-Shabaab will develop into an international network.

"Eritrea set to avoid harsh sanctions, still mistrusted"

2011-11-19T20:15:00.001-05:00

I'm quoted in Aaron Maasho's Reuters story on Eritrea.

Here are the quotes:

David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia said China and Russia among others were likely to push for a watered-down resolution.

Both China and Russia typically oppose sanctions on African nations, a position that left China in particular in a bind.

"While it has cordial relations with Eritrea and opposes sanctions, it has much more important ties with Ethiopia," Shinn told Reuters.

"Something will probably come out of the United Nations Security Council, but I believe it will be fairly mild."

... "Eritrea is seen by African countries as a pariah state. The government of Isaias Afewerki wants to change this perception," said Shinn.

"Somalia, Kenya and Uganda pledge to defeat al-Shabaab rebels"

2011-11-17T21:53:00.000-05:00

Al-Shabaab Islamist rebels train near Mogadishu. Photo: Feisal Omar/Reuters

I'm quoted in Clar Ni Chonghaile's Guardian article on Somalia, Kenya and Uganda. Here are the quotes:

David Shinn, a former US ambassador to Ethiopia, says Kenya must pull out of Somalia soon, whether or not it takes Kismayo.

"The longer it remains, the greater al-Shabaab's argument will resonate with Somalis that a foreign force has invaded," he said.

And:

Whatever Kenya's motives, Shinn doubts the incursion can create a durable solution for Somalia, where the weak Transitional Federal Government has failed to extend its control beyond Mogadishu.

"Al-Shabaab will eventually fail because of its own mistakes such as the mishandling of the famine. Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, other regional players and the international community can make a difference on the margins if they choose smart policies. Ultimately, Somalis are going to determine the outcome."

Kenya seeks help of Arab League

2011-11-17T21:48:00.000-05:00

BBC World Service asked me to comment 17 November, 2011, on Kenya’s request to the Arab League, which is meeting in Morocco, to support its intervention in Somalia.

I responded that Kenya is not a member of the Arab League but Somalia, represented by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), is a member. I made the assumption that the TFG is in agreement with Kenya’s demarche to the Arab League. This is important, because the TFG president not long ago expressed concern about Kenya’s role in Somalia, while the TFG prime minister strongly supported it. If there is still disagreement within the TFG on the Kenyan intervention, I doubted that anything positive would come out of the Arab League meeting.

On the other hand, if the TFG and Kenya have coordinated their positions, it is possible the Arab League, which has been supportive of the TFG in the past, might issue a positive statement on Kenya’s involvement in Somalia. That said, the Arab League is not likely to offer any tangible support. A positive statement might, however, encourage one or more Arab League members on their own to offer tangible support.

Kenya has also offered, if asked, to provide a few battalions to the African Union force in Mogadishu (AMISOM). Djibouti and Sierra Leone have promised troops in the coming months to join the 9,700 Ugandan and Burundi troops already there. Even if Kenyan troops were to join this growing force, AMISOM is confined to Mogadishu and does not appear to have any intention of going any significant distance outside the capital.

Should Kenya succeed in removing al-Shabaab from a corridor along its border, including the key port town of Kismayu, and contribute troops to AMISOM in Mogadishu, this still leaves a huge piece of territory under the control of al-Shabaab between Mogadishu and whatever buffer zone the Kenyans are able to create along its border in southern Somalia.

Kenya may have a coherent long-term plan for countering al-Shabaab in Somalia. If that is the case, it is not apparent to me.

U.S. view of cooperation with China in Africa

2011-11-14T01:00:00.000-05:00

Following is the text of my remarks on advancing the diplomatic agenda with China in Africa. I made the remarks at a conference on Africa, the United States and China hosted by the Virginia Military Institute on 3-4 November, 2011.

United States and China in Africa: Advancing the Diplomatic Agenda

Quoted on Chinese Investment in Africa

2011-11-08T19:18:00.000-05:00

Xinhua quoted me on 1 November in an article dealing with Chinese investment in Africa. Taken from my testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the article not surprisingly focused on my positive statements about China and not those that raised concerns about Chinese activity in Africa.

"China Ignores Warning Bells"

2011-11-08T19:13:00.000-05:00

I am quoted in this Radio Free Asia piece by Parameswaran Ponnudurai. Here is my quote:

"African nations do not have the institutions to keep harmful and counterfeit products from entering, and China has either not figured out or is not interested in preventing these problems at the source," said David Shinn, an African expert at George Washington University.

Chinese firms have also been accused of engaging in corruption in Africa, for which China is the largest trading partner with total trade valued at U.S. $127 billion last year.

"[T]here are few indications that China is beginning to see corruption as a negative factor for doing business in Africa," said Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso.

Event listing: Horn of Africa panel, 11/8

2011-11-06T18:12:00.002-05:00

Tues., Nov. 8, 2011; 5:30 - 7:45 p.m.
Panel Discussion: Funger Hall, Room 108, 2201 G Street, NW
Reception: Kogan Plaza, H Street & 22nd Street, NW

Horn of Africa
Halima Barqadle, Volunteer Nurse, American Refugee Committee
John Prendergast, Co-Founder, Enough Project
Ambassador David Shinn, Adjunct Professor of International Affairs, GW

The panel will begin with a presentation on the humanitarian issues and be followed by a discussion of strategies for solutions to this and future food insecurity challenges in the region.

The panel will be followed by a reception in Kogan Plaza at 6:45 with a photographic projection images from the region and a live concert performance. Sponsored by GW Program Board, GW Career Center, FotoDC, Art Works Projects.

"U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa"

2011-11-02T22:28:00.000-04:00

My remarks on U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa, which I delivered on 30 September 2011 at Western Michigan University in Kalamazoo, Michigan, and blogged about here, also appear in the Journal of Foreign Relations.

Senate hearing on China-Africa relations

2011-11-02T21:24:00.007-04:00

I joined Debra Brautigam of American University and Steve Hayes, president of the Corporate Council on Africa, in a 1 November hearing held by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs that examined China’s growing role in Africa.

Chairman Chris Coons of Delaware organized and chaired the hearing. Other senators in attendance included Johnny Isakson of Georgia, Richard Durbin of Illinois, Richard Lugar of Indiana, Benjamin Cardin of Maryland, and Tim Udall of New Mexico.

You can read the text of my written testimony below. See also the Associated Press story, "Senators: US losing sway in Africa as China rises," which references my testimony, and C-SPAN's video coverage. And allAfrica.com has the transcript. China's Xinhua News Agency also quotes from the testimony.

China’s Growing Role in Africa: Implications for U.S. Policy

Remarks by president of Puntland

2011-10-31T22:07:00.000-04:00

Abdirahman Mohamud Farole, president of Puntland State of Somalia, spoke at Chatham House in London on 19 October 2011. He addressed relations with the TFG, the drought in Puntland, security challenges, and piracy. You can read the transcript here.

Interview on Ethiopia and Horn of Africa

2011-10-29T15:21:00.001-04:00

I taped on October 6 a 46 minute interview on developments in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa with ESAT Ethiopia Insight. It caters primarily to the Ethiopian diaspora.

PowerPoint presentation on South Sudan

2011-10-29T11:04:00.000-04:00

I have included a PowerPoint presentation that I gave in late October on the challenges facing South Sudan. While this is a fairly pessimistic outlook, it is a more positive presentation than I would deliver at the current time on the challenges facing the government in Khartoum.

Republic of South Sudan: Statehood and the Challenges Ahead

Somali Youth radicalization

2011-10-29T10:47:00.001-04:00

The most recent issue of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Gazette published an article in English and French that I wrote on Somali youth radicalization. You can access the French version here, and the English version is found here. Although the English-language printed version properly identifies me as the author, the web version does not.

"Kenya risks rallying support for Somali rebels"

2011-10-25T21:10:00.001-04:00

UPDATE: Nov. 2: Al Jazeera quoted from this interview in its piece, "Kenya's blundering mission in Somalia."

I'm quoted in Richard Lough's Reuters story on Kenya and Somalia. Here are the quotes:

"Kenya does not have the capacity to drive al Shabaab out (of southern Somalia) and keep them out," said David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia.

"The best it can do is remove al Shabaab from the border area, and possibly Kismayu, and then try to replace al Shabaab with Somali forces friendly to Kenya."

Analysis of Ethiopia’s economy

2011-10-21T21:59:00.002-04:00

Shimelse Ali, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, offered a brief analysis of Ethiopia’s economy on 20 October titled “Ethiopia’s Imperfect Growth Miracle.”

Ethiopia: Planting Avocado Trees in Katbare. July 2011. Flickr/Trees for the Future.

He stated that since 2004, Ethiopia’s economy has grown on average by an unprecedented 11 percent. Per capita income has more than doubled over the same period, albeit from a very low base. Although the economy remains heavily reliant on agriculture, the service sector has driven recent growth, accounting for nearly half of GDP since 2004.

He concluded that despite the country’s remarkable growth performance in recent years, its record in promoting socio-economic development is mixed. Ethiopia has made significant strides in reducing rural poverty, improving life expectancy, and raising education levels. But these gains have come with rising urban income inequality and surging inflation.

Interview with BBC World Have Your Say

2011-10-19T21:43:00.000-04:00

I joined on 19 October three Kenyans in Nairobi and BBC correspondent Mohammed Ali in London for an hour-long BBC call-in program “World Have Your Say” devoted to Kenya’s recent intervention in Somalia. You can listen to the entire program below.

Instability in South Sudan’s unity state

2011-10-19T21:33:00.000-04:00

The International Crisis Group published a solid report on 17 October 2011 titled “South Sudan: Compounding Instability in Unity State.” Situated along the North-South border and the source of much of the South’s known oil deposits, Unity is a strategic territory and primary source of South Sudan’s revenue. Politics in Unity are deeply polarized. Its people, land and social fabric were devastated by two decades of conflict that pitted national forces, border-area proxies, southern rebels and its own ethnic Nuer clans against one another.

Recent rebel militia activity has drawn considerable attention to Unity State, highlighting internal fractures and latent grievances. The fault lines in Unity run deeper than the rebellions. A governance crisis has polarized state politics and sown seeds of discontent. Territorial disputes, cross-border tensions, economic isolation, lack of development and a still tenuous North-South relationship also fuel instability.

You can read the entire report here.

The cost of failure in Somalia

2011-10-19T21:30:00.000-04:00

The Center for American Progress and One Earth Future Foundation issued a report dated September 2011 titled “Twenty Years of Collapse and Counting: The Cost of Failure in Somalia.”

Written by John Norris and Bronwyn Bruton, it estimates that the international community has spent more than $55 billion dealing with crises related to Somalia since 1991. It describes Somalia as “a tragic case study of the international community getting it wrong repeatedly.” It adds that “the United States in particular shows an almost willful disregard for sensible diplomacy or the kinds of patient, grassroots engagement that might have helped Somalia achieve a greater level of stability at different junctures.”

While I agree that the international community and the United States have made more than their share of mistakes in Somalia, I believe the report is excessively harsh on the role of the international community. It was the international community that ended the 1992-1993 famine and has continued to keep many Somalis alive with emergency food aid. In the final analysis, it is Somalis themselves who created this situation. Could the international community done much better? Yes.

Decide for yourself by reading the entire report.

Kenyan troops enter Somalia

2011-10-19T21:26:00.000-04:00

BBC radio and television asked me to comment 17 October on Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia. While acknowledging that Kenya had other options to pursue, including taking the matter to the United Nations, I suggested that the frustration of recent attacks inside Kenya against tourists and non-governmental organization personnel pushed the Kenyans to the limit. They decided they had to respond militarily. Obtaining some kind of UN sanction for the operation would have taken considerable time.

It is not clear whether al-Shabaab carried out the attacks inside Kenya, but it is clear that the perpetrators took the hostages to territory inside Somalia controlled by al-Shabaab, thus making al-Shabaab complicit in the attacks.

The objective of the Kenyan military operation and the length of time the Kenyan forces intend to remain inside Somalia remain unclear. The longer they remain, however, the greater will be the animosity of the average Somali against Kenya.

The Kenyan forces may intend to clear a buffer zone along the Kenya-Somali border and then install Somali forces who oppose al-Shabaab and are friendly with Kenya. Kenya may go as far as the important al-Shabaab port city of Kismayu and try to put friendly Somali forces in charge of the port so that al-Shabaab can no longer use it as a major source of revenue, including the transit of products that are smuggled into Kenya.

This action does raise the possibility of al-Shabaab terrorist attacks inside Kenya such as occurred in Kampala, Uganda, in July 2010. So far, al-Shabaab has avoided terrorist attacks in Kenya because, I believe, it benefits from the illegal trade into Kenya and receives financial support from sympathizers in the large Somali community in Nairobi. Al-Shabaab did not want to jeopardize this cozy relationship by attacking Kenya. It may now conclude that retaliation is more important than continuing the economic advantages that it had in Kenya.

Kenya almost certainly consulted key allies such as Ethiopia, the United States and United Kingdom on this operation but the decision to send troops into Somalia was, I believe, Kenya’s alone. The United States has in the past provided counterterrorism training and shared intelligence with key allies in the region, including Kenya. Although I doubt that the United States had a direct role in the intervention, there is no reason to believe that it objected to the operation.

"Somali rebels reinforce Afmadow, residents flee"

2011-10-19T21:18:00.005-04:00

I'm quoted in a Reuters story on Kenya and Somalia.

[Update: The Reuters interview is referenced in a Catholic News Agency story.]

Here's the full transcript of the responses I provided:

Kenya’s action is an expression of frustration as a result of bad developments coming from Somalia whether from al-Shabaab or some other group. I don’t believe Kenya’s action is a publicity stunt or an effort drive al-Shabaab out of southern Somalia. Kenya does not have the capacity to drive al-Shabaab out and keep them out. The best it can do is remove al-Shabaab from the border area and possibly Kismayu and then try to replace al-Shabaab with Somali forces friendly to Kenya such as the Transitional Federal Government, Ras Kamboni faction and/or others.

The Kenyans must understand that a long-term presence inside Somalia will become a rallying cry for al-Shabaab and result in more anti-Kenyan sentiment among many Somalis. It is questionable if pro-Kenyan Somalis would be able to hold this territory after the departure of the Kenyan forces.

In this sense, the Kenyans are creating a dilemma for themselves. On the other hand, they are fed up with the antics of al-Shabaab and some of these criminal Somali groups and felt that it had to take action. Kenya may have intelligence that al-Shabaab captured the French and British tourists and the two Spanish MSF volunteers.

I am not convinced al-Shabaab carried out these attacks. But the fact is that all four of these people returned to territory under the control of al-Shabaab, which makes al-Shabaab complicit whether it conducted the operations or not.

The Ethiopians are certainly in regular communication with the Kenyans on all matters concerning Somalia. While Ethiopia may take some actions in concert with the Kenyans along its border with Somalia, I doubt there will be any coordinated Kenyan/Ethiopian military action in this most recent Kenyan operation.

Kenya may well find itself more embroiled in Somalia than is advisable. At the same time, it could not permit these incidents emanating from Somalia to continue without a response. It had to do something. Whether this was the best response is debatable.

The impact of this action on providing assistance to famine victims in south and central Somalia is important. If this operation permits friendly Somalis to occupy the border area, it might make more famine relief available to some of those who have not yet been reached. If this is a quick in and out military action with no lasting change in the situation on the ground, it might complicate famine relief as aid agencies will be more reluctant than ever to try to operate in al-Shabaab held territory.

Kenya’s action also opens the door to al-Shabaab terrorist attacks inside Kenya. Al-Shabaab has avoided these attacks so far because it benefits too much from the illegal shipment of goods from Kismayu into Kenya and from financial supporters in the Somali community in Kenya. Al-Shabaab may conclude that the Kenyan action must be responded to, however, and the easiest way to do this is to carry out terrorist attacks inside Kenya. This would really ratchet up tension in the Horn.

"Kenya Gets Pro-Active on Somalia Militancy"

2011-10-17T20:22:00.000-04:00

I'm quoted in Nairobi-based reporter Brian Dabbs' World Politics Review piece on Kenya and Somalia. (The article requires a login.)

Kenyan military moves into Somalia

2011-10-17T20:18:00.000-04:00

Aljazeera English asked me to comment 16 October on the move into southern Somalia by Kenyan military forces following three separate attacks on foreigners inside Kenya by persons who escaped with hostages to al-Shabaab held territory in Somalia.

I replied that the attack seems to have been coordinated with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces although the Kenyan military clearly provided most of the firepower. The big question is how many Kenyans went into Somalia, what is their objective and how long they plan to stay.

Somalis oppose all foreign forces — Kenyans, Ethiopians and those with al-Shabaab. The longer the Kenyans remain in Somalia, the greater will be the animosity against them by average Somalis.

Kenyan forces do not have the capacity to occupy all of the territory held by al-Shabaab. They might have limited objectives along the border and perhaps intend to disrupt the ability of al-Shabaab to operate the port of Kismayu.

I have no knowledge of any U.S. role in the operation but would note that the United States routinely shares intelligence with Kenyans and has in recent years trained Kenyan counterterrorism forces.

See the video below (my quotes start about half a minute into the clip):

Somali Public Opinion

2011-10-15T23:06:00.000-04:00

The National Democratic Institute sponsored a second focus group study with Somalis that it conducted between February and June and published in September 2011. The information is based on 54 focus group discussions and 28 one-on-one interviews with 651 Somali participants in Puntland, South and Central Somalia and among Somali citizens in the diaspora in Kenya.

Key findings include:

A sense of utter fatigue and desperation about life in Somalia.
Deep concern over both western involvement in Somalia and foreign support for al-Shabaab.
Unhappiness about the harmful effect of foreign intervention in Somalia and rejection of the use of private security firms by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG).
A tendency to reject any future role in Somalia for the international community.
A belief that clanism has caused Somalia’s descent into lawlessness and the business community continues to profit from the conflict.
Futility with TFG efforts to end the chaos.
A belief that al-Shabaab has made a mockery of Islam.
Generally more unfavorable than favorable views of the international community, especially toward the United States and Ethiopia.
A strong desire for a unified Somalia but also growing support for a federal system.
Rejection of the 4.5 power-sharing formula based on clans.
A desire for political parties that are not based on clans.
Growing support for a new constitution.
Enthusiastic support for the public consultation process in preparing a new constitution.
A tendency to welcome the return of Somalis from the diaspora but concern that they are out of touch with current realities in Somalia.
A strong believe that political reconciliation must be Somali led.

You can access the entire report here.

Update on China-Africa bibliography

2011-10-13T21:54:00.000-04:00

I continue to maintain a bibliography on China-Africa materials. The initial bibliography appeared in issue 108 (2008) of African Research and Documentation (ARD), the journal of the Standing Conference on Library Materials on Africa. ARD just published an addendum to the original bibliography in issue 115 (2011). These materials are intended to assist researchers on China-Africa relations.

China-Africa Relations: Bibliography

U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa

2011-10-11T21:43:00.002-04:00

Following are remarks on U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa that I made on 30 September 2011 at Western Michigan University in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

U.S. Policy towards the Horn of Africa

Quoted in IPS Africa

2011-10-10T13:28:00.000-04:00

Earlier this month, I was quoted in an IPS Africa article. In the piece, titled, "SUDAN: China Could Oil the Peace Process," I am quoted on the U.S. role in easing tensions between South Sudan and Sudan:

"The U.S. doesn’t have much of a (diplomatic) muscle to flex any more," David Shinn, former United States ambassador to Ethiopia, told IPS back in June.

"The only thing it can do other than pontificate more vociferously than it has in the past is to threaten to slow down any aspects of the normalisation of relations."

"Drone Wars: Somalia becomes the latest front"

2011-10-10T13:05:00.000-04:00

I am quoted in Tristan McConnell's GlobalPost piece about drone wars in Somalia.

Here's an excerpt:

David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador in the Horn of Africa, was also skeptical.

“There’s a debate being had over the utility of drone attacks in Somalia,” he said. “They don’t get you that far, and the targets are not as valuable as in other areas, such as Pakistan.”

Suicide Bombing in Mogadishu

2011-10-05T12:38:00.000-04:00

The BBC World Service asked me to comment October 4 on the massive suicide truck bombing in Mogadishu carried out by al-Shabaab.

I suggested that any organization determined to carry out asymmetrical attacks such as suicide bombings has an advantage. Al-Shabaab can continue such attacks until the Transitional Federal Government and the African Union forces become more capable in countering them. Suicide bombings are, however, a sign of al-Shabaab’s desperation not its strength. In this case, many of the victims were Somali students applying at the Ministry of Education for scholarships offered by the government of Turkey.

This bombing was similar to al-Shabaab’s suicide attack in 2009 during a graduation ceremony in Mogadishu that killed a number of students. These suicide attacks that kill many innocent people outrage most Somalis and will result in decreasing support for al-Shabaab.

When the BBC correspondent countered that these tactics have not diminished al-Shabaab’s ability to recruit more young people to its cause, I disagreed, arguing there is evidence that al-Shabaab is now experiencing difficulty recruiting new followers. In response to a question, I did not believe the most recent suicide bombing would change U.S. policy in Somalia.

Mismanaging the Famine in Somalia

2011-10-03T22:40:00.001-04:00

Flickr/Internews Network

Matt Bryden, coordinator of the United Nations Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group, wrote in October 2011 a brief for the Enough Project on the criminality and mishandling of the famine in Somalia.

He excoriated the extremist group, al-Shabaab, for denying Somali famine victims the opportunity to migrate in search of food and for banning the most effective aid agencies from working in areas it controls. He also condemned the Transitional Federal Government for permitting gross corruption that prevents it from discharging its duties.

You can read the short paper here (pdf).

African Response to Chinese Engagement with Africa

2011-10-03T21:08:00.000-04:00

Elijah Nyaga Munyi, a PhD fellow at Aalborg University in Denmark, did a study released in September by the Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University dealing with African policy responses for engaging China and enhancing regional integration. He argues that the time has come for African countries to develop common policy measures to manage China-Africa relations.

His proposals include creation by China of a trust fund administered by the African Development Bank that would supplement the existing China-Africa Development Fund, which is designed primarily to serve the interests of Chinese firms. He also calls for Chinese FDI to play a greater role in employment creation and technology transfer.

More specifically, Munyi suggested African countries should take the following steps:

1. Set clear minimum requirements on equity joint ventures and cooperative joint ventures for Chinese companies investing in certain strategic target sectors for enhancement of technology transfer.

2. Enact strict limits on the number of foreign workers that each Chinese company can bring into African countries.

3. Push China to consider voluntary export restraints on a continental basis as it did for a period of time in the case of textiles to South Africa.

4. Take steps to ensure that Chinese loans do not contribute to intolerable debt.
While these are good suggestions, history indicates that it is extremely difficult for 54 independent African countries to act collectively as they engage with China or any other major partner.
You can read the entire report here (pdf).

Upcoming Panel: Eagle and Dragon in Africa

2011-09-29T13:56:00.001-04:00

I will participate in an upcoming discussion at the Virginia Military Institute on November 3 & 4. Here's some information about the event:

The United States and China are Africa’s most important bilateral partners; both have a vested interest in Africa’s success. Their respective interests are often framed as competitive over Africa's vast natural resources and emerging markets. This conference seeks to offer an objective look at the relationship among the U.S., China, and the countries of Africa.

This symposium will explore areas of common interests and goals while acknowledging the well worn argument that China and the U.S. compete in Africa. Finally, it will ask the simple question: how can the U.S. and China work individually and together to promote political stability and economic development in Africa?

More information is available here.

Conflict Spreading in Sudan

2011-09-29T13:25:00.000-04:00

The International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a statement on 26 September 2011 that growing war on multiple fronts (Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile, Abyei and Darfur) in Sudan poses serious dangers for the country, its future relationship with South Sudan and the stability of the region. It argued that National Congress Party (NCP) hardliners have opted for a military solution to continuing disputes with dissident groups residing just north of the border with South Sudan. This is pushing Sudan’s various rebel movements to form a united opposition front aimed at regime change that could result in a civil war for control of the country.

The ICG calls for a united international response to the crisis, a cessation of hostilities, an inclusive national dialogue that renegotiates the relationship between the center and the peripheries, agreement on redistribution of power leading to a new constitution and new elections. These steps put most of the pressure on the NCP to change its policies and will likely be resisted by hardliners in Sudan’s government. The situation in the Republic of Sudan is now more tenuous than the situation in South Sudan, but no one should underestimate the challenges in South Sudan.

Read the entire ICG statement here.

Five Former U.S. Assistant Secretaries of State for Africa Discuss U.S. Policy

2011-09-26T16:41:00.000-04:00

Chester Crocker (1981-1989), Herman J. Cohen 1989-1993), George Moose (1993-1997), Constance Berry Newman (2004-2007) and Jendayi Frazer (2005-2009) participated on 21 September in a unique event hosted by the Atlantic Council.

For more than two hours, they discussed frankly their experiences as the person in charge of Africa policy in the State Department. They also commented on key issues facing the Obama administration. The audio, video and a transcript of the remarks can be found here.

China’s Role in African Development

2011-09-25T18:16:00.000-04:00

Richard Schiere, an economist with the African Development Bank, prepared a study titled, “China and Africa: An Emerging Partnership for Development? – An Overview of Issues.” It is dated May 2011.

He concludes that China’s phenomenal growth offers an opportunity to increase development in Africa while benefitting China by providing access to natural resources. He argues, however, that African countries need to improve their bargaining position with China to ensure that the China-Africa relationship contributes to sustainable growth and poverty reduction. The goals of the paper are to summarize the analysis on the economic exchange between China and Africa and to suggest policy recommendations to improve the benefits to both parties.

You can access the report here.

"Expanding Network of Drone Bases To Hit Somalia, Yemen"

2011-09-25T17:59:00.000-04:00

I was recently quoted in Jim Lobe's Inter Press Service piece about the Obama administration's move to expand its network of bases to carry out drone attacks in Somalia and Yemen. Here's my quote:

"There could certainly be a lot of internal discussion before they would agree to authorise the use of a base (for armed drones)," said David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Addis Ababa. "They don't want to be seen as a pawn of anyone."

Shinn, who teaches at George Washington University, said the use of armed drones should be highly constrained and warned against its becoming "the default policy for dealing with Somalia".

"I don't see a problem with using an aerial strike with a couple of huge caveats," he told IPS. "First, that you have intelligence which is 95 percent accurate or better on a high value target - which is a pretty tough standard - and, second, that there's little or no likelihood of collateral damage. If you're using these things willy- nilly on the basis of not very good intelligence, then it will be counter-productive."

Enough Project Calls for Diplomatic Surge to Halt Somalia’s Famine

2011-09-25T17:19:00.000-04:00

Somalia expert Ken Menkhaus wrote a policy brief in September 2011 for the Enough Project titled “A Diplomatic Surge to Stop Somalia’s Famine.” Menkhaus noted that 70 percent of Somali famine victims reside in the countryside where al-Shabaab blocks most aid agencies and severely curtails the activities of the few that remain. Al-Shabaab’s leadership has denied that famine exists, views food aid as a western conspiracy to undermine Somali farmers and tries to block famine victims from fleeing to areas where food aid is available.

Flickr/IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation/TURKEY

He argues that both al-Shabaab and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) must be put under the most intense diplomatic pressure the world can muster, led by eminent global figures and politicians from the Islamic world, Africa, the West and beyond. It must include mobilization of Somali, Islamic and western civil society groups who can bring pressure to bear on their own governments to make this a top priority and, where appropriate, press the TFG and al-Shabaab. The strategy requires equal political pressure on the TFG and al-Shabaab. Menkhaus calls on the United States to take the lead in this initiative.

To my mind, this strategy has a major flaw. While there are many points of leverage for dealing with the TFG, which is not the primary problem, there are very few for dealing with al-Shabaab. I don’t know of any nation state that has any leverage over al-Shabaab. While there are a few Islamic NGOs that are engaging with al-Shabaab, none has any real influence with the extremist group. Individual Somali business persons do have some leverage and perhaps a small number of foreign Islamic religious figures and scholars could influence al-Shabaab, but the United States is in a weak position to organize these forces into a diplomatic surge and I doubt that these limited points of leverage constitute a surge in any event.

You may have a different reaction to the policy brief so I suggest you read Menhhaus’ full report.

Does China’s Economic Transformation Have Lessons for Africa?

2011-09-21T14:51:00.004-04:00

The China-DAC Study Group, which was established jointly by the International Poverty Reduction Center in China and OECD’s Development Assistance Committee, published in August a summary of its findings titled “Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction: How It Happened in China, Helping It Happen in Africa."

Flickr/Tine Steiss

The primary findings were:

(1) China’s experience shows that rapid economic and social development in poor countries can happen, in a context of globalization, when strong development-oriented leadership emerges, focused on development performance rather than on entrenched policies and interests. This requires the articulation of a national project for economic transformation within a generation that motivates people across the country in a new national consensus.

(2) As in the case of China’s economic transformation, international assistance can support and speed up Africa’s transformation and poverty reduction process when conceived and designed in this transformational framework.

The report also suggests what China can do further to enhance development in Africa, what OECD/DAC members can do and what Africans can learn from the Chinese experience.

The complete study is available here.

Yachting anywhere near Somalia is just "nosensical"

2011-09-15T12:33:00.002-04:00

I am quoted in Christina Ng's ABC News piece about the growing threat Somali pirates pose to tourists and corporate travelers. Here's an excerpt from the article along with my quote:

In the first eight-and-a-half months of 2011 alone, there have been 330 reported worldwide incidents of piracy. that's up from 293 attacks in all of 2008. More than 50 percent of these have been Somali-related and occurred along the coast of the Horn of Africa in the Indian Ocean.

...Most experts advise travelers to stay out of known danger zones. "The whole concept of yachting anywhere in the vicinity of Somalia is nonsensical. You'd have to have your head examined," said David Shinn, the former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso. "There's no protection against [pirates]. You can't outrun them and if they find you, you're just a goner."

Coming up: lecture on U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa

2011-09-15T12:07:00.001-04:00

Next Friday, I will give a presentation titled, "U.S. Policy Towards the Horn of Africa."

The lecture is scheduled for 3pm (Friday, Sept. 30) in room 2028 of Brown Hall. The lecture is hosted by WMU’s Center for African Development Policy Research and co-sponsored by WMU’s Timothy Light Center for Chinese Studies, Office of Diversity and Inclusion, Departments of Economics, Geography and Political Science and the Diether H. Haenicke Institute for Global Education.

For additional details, see this story on their website.

Upcoming event: Republicans on the Throne

2011-09-12T22:29:00.002-04:00

I will be speaking at a CSIS event on Wednesday. Here are the details:

Tekalign Gedamu

Author, Republicans on the Throne

Elias Wondimu

Publisher and Editorial Director, Tsehai Publishers

introductory remarks by

Ambassador David Shinn (ret.)

Adjunct Professor of International Affairs, George Washington University

moderated by

Richard Downie

Deputy Director and Fellow, CSIS Africa Program

Wednesday, September 14, 2011, 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Fourth Floor Conference Room, CSIS

1800 K St. NW, Washington, DC 20006

Republicans on the Throne is a memoir spanning the author’s youth and six-decade career in the United Nations, the government of Ethiopia, and the African Development Bank. It examines the fundamental forces behind the Ethiopian revolution and its failed attempts to improve the country’s economic and political fortunes, an assessment of the policies and practices of new rulers, and how the country is faring under their leadership. The book concludes that major challenges remain in the struggle for democracy, fundamental freedoms, national cohesion, and the fight against poverty.

Please RSVP to Sophie Boehm at africa@csis.org

Al-Shabaab and the famine in Somalia

2011-09-10T15:22:00.001-04:00

The American Enterprise Institute's Katherine Zimmerman testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Human Rights on the challenges facing humanitarian organizations in al-Shabaab held territory in Somalia.

The analysis, published on 8 September 2011 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, offers a sound analysis of the problem. The author makes the argument that successful humanitarian intervention in al-Shabaab controlled territory would require the introduction of accompanying military force. While she does not recommend such an intervention, she emphasized that any such undertaking must bear this risk in mind.

You can read her testimony here (pdf).

"Is the West losing out to China in Africa?"

2011-09-09T23:50:00.000-04:00

I'm quoted in Teo Kermeliotis' CNN article:

While Western countries are still important players in Africa's energy sector, the deepening engagement of China in Africa's infrastructure, mineral sector and telecommunications is creating "deep nervousness" in the West, says David Shinn, the former U.S. ambassador to Burkina Faso and Ethiopia.

Asian giants scent opportunity in Africa

The competition in these areas, he explains, usually pits big Chinese enterprises that are financially backed by Beijing's deep pockets against Western companies that often have shareholders to consider and are by-and-large acting independently of their governments' desires.

"If the Chinese government wants to encourage an engagement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, they can make it happen," says Shinn. "If the United States wants its companies to get involved in the DRC all they can do is say 'look, there's an opportunity there, why don't you go explore it' and if they want to explore it, they do and if they don't they don't."

According to Shinn, this different system of government "does create anxieties" because "the United States and the West see China filling all kinds of voids that it thought it would eventually fill."

...Shinn says that to the eyes of many African leaders China's capacity to move fast, coupled with its policy of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs, often makes Beijing a more attractive partner than the West, whose policy in the continent is usually linked to conditions about good governance and human-rights reforms.

"Introduction to African Security Issues"

2011-09-08T20:51:00.000-04:00

Below are my remarks on African security issues at "Emerging Powers in Africa" at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University in Fort McNair, Washington, D.C., on 8 September, 2011.

Emerging Powers in Africa

Dealing with conflict in the Horn of Africa

2011-09-08T20:39:00.000-04:00

The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Alliance for Peacebuilding and Institute for Horn of Africa Studies and Affairs held a half-day conference in Washington on 7 September, 2011 that focused on conflict resolution in the Horn of Africa.

Participants worked from a paper prepared by Paul D. Williams, professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, that described the history of conflicts in the Horn and urged a regional strategy to deal with them in the future.

The final version of his paper will appear on the blog. I include here my remarks at the conference.

A Proposed US Regional Strategy towards the Horn of Africa: Conflict Resolution at Local and Regional Levels

"The New Face of the War against Terrorism in Africa"

2011-09-08T20:29:00.001-04:00

I was interviewed on the Voice of America's Straight Talk program, which can be viewed below.

The full video is available here. Here's the full audio:

What does Africa need from the U.S. and China?

2011-09-04T12:33:00.001-04:00

The Virginia Military Institute in Lexington, Va., is hosting a conference on what Africa needs from the United States and China November 3-4, 2011. It is open to the public.

You can register on-line at www.vmi.edu/africa.

I have been asked to make a presentation on “U.S. and China in Africa: Advancing the Diplomatic Agenda” on November 4.

The Eagle & the Dragon in Africa: Stability and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
Thursday, 3 November & Friday, 4 November 2011

Virginia Military Institute - Center for Leadership and Ethics, Lexington, Va.

Thursday, 3 November

1 p.m. - Opening Session
· Welcoming Remarks - GEN J. H. Binford Peay III, U.S. Army (Ret.), VMI Superintendent
· Keynote - Ambassador Jendayi E. Frazer, Ph.D., Distinguished Public Service Professor and Director, Center for International Policy and Innovation, Carnegie Mellon University

2:25 p.m. - Africa’s Interest: What the U.S. and China mean for Africa’s Development
· Kwesi Aning, Ph. D., Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC) in Accra, Ghana
· Soji Adelaja, Ph. D., Professor, Land Policy, Director of the Land Policy Institute, Michigan State University

4 p.m. - U.S. and Chinese Interest in Africa: Competitors or Collaborators?
Chair: Charles Horner, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
· Raymond Gilpin, Ph. D., Associate Vice President, Sustainable Economies Centers of Innovation, United States Institute of Peace
· Howard Sanborn, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, International Studies and Political Science, VMI

5:30 p.m. - Reception - Festival of Sub-Saharan music and food

7:30 p.m. - Keynote Remarks (TBA)

Friday, 4 November

9 a.m. - U.S. Approaches to Sustainable Development in Africa
Chair: Paul Hebert, Ph. D., Winner of the VMI Jonathan M. Daniels Humanitarian Award, 2011
· Christopher LaMonica, Ph. D., Associate Professor of Comparative Politics at the U. S. Coast Guard Academy
· LTC Nancy Jean-Louis, U.S. Army, USAFRICOM Military Representative to USAID

10 a.m. - War & Peace in Africa
Chair: Ambassador Louis J. Nigro, Jr. (Retired), Former U.S. Ambassador to Chad
· Reuben Brigety, Ph. D., Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, U.S. Department of State
· COL James Hentz, Ph. D., Professor and Chair, Department of International Studies, Virginia Military Institute

11 a.m. - China and U.S. Strategic Relationships with Africa
· Ian Taylor, Ph.D., Professor, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, U.K.
· COL Tom Sheperd, USA, Director of African Studies, National Security & Strategy, U.S. Army War College

12 p.m. - Keynote Speaker - Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, State Department

1:30 p.m. - U.S. and China in Africa: Advancing the Diplomatic Agenda
· J. Peter Pham, Ph. D., Director, Michael S. Ansari Africa Center, Atlantic Council
· David Shinn, Ph.D., Adjunct Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University

2:45 p.m. - Chinese Approaches to Sustainable Development in Africa
Chair: Yoon Jung Park, Ph.D., Senior Research Associate, Rhodes University
· Deborah Bräutigam, Ph. D., author of The Dragon's Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa
· Joseph Riley, Jefferson Scholar, University of Virginia, Class of 2013

4:30 p.m. - Military Parade - VMI Corps of Cadets

Agenda as of 31 August 2011: www.vmi.edu/africa

China-Africa relations and public diplomacy

2011-09-01T20:22:00.000-04:00

The Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, in collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Duke University, hosted a conference in mid-August on China-Africa relations and public diplomacy.

Although much has been written in the past five years on China-Africa relations, this is an important topic that has been neglected.

The Embassy of the People’s Republic of China and China’s ZTE Corporation provided financial assistance. There was significant official and academic participation from China. All of the speakers on the African side appear to be from the academic community.

It would have been useful, at a minimum, to have a spokesperson from the African Union. Nevertheless, it is to the credit of Stellenbosch University that it undertook this initiative. You can find a summary of the proceedings here (PDF).

Meryl Burgess, Kgothatso Moloi-Siga and Matthew McDonald of the Centre for Chinese Studies prepared a brief analysis of the conference for the August 2011 issue of The China Monitor. You can read it on pages 12-14 here (PDF).

"More U.S. Businesses Encouraged to Look At Africa's Potential"

2011-08-24T10:20:00.000-04:00

Photo: VOA - N. Colombant

I'm quoted in Nico Colombant's Aug. 18 Voice of America story on U.S. investment in Africa:

Development experts say smaller companies which have something to offer for Africa's growing middle class and infrastructure needs should also take a close look. A former U.S. ambassador in Africa, David Shinn, says the U.S. government should do more to help nervous companies take their first steps.

"Part of it is cajoling the American private sector, having perhaps a major conference led by the Secretary of State or the Secretary of Commerce or the president even to bring in potential investors and encouraging them to go to Africa," said Shinn.

More on Somali piracy

2011-08-24T10:00:00.001-04:00

July 22, 2011 : Members of a visit, board, search, and seizure team from the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio (CG 68), in background, intercept a skiff containing a group of suspected pirates. Anzio is supporting Combined Task Force (CTF) 151, a multi-national, mission-based task force established by the Combined Maritime Forces in January 2009 to conduct counter-piracy operations in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Somali Basin and Arabian Sea. (Combined Maritime Forces photo/Released)

The Swedish Defense Research Agency released a report on piracy in July 2011 by Karl Sorenson titled "Wrong Hands on Deck? Combating Maritime Security in Eastern Africa" (PDF).

The report investigates the threat to maritime security in East Africa and the Horn, responses to deal with these threats and the prospect for building maritime security in the region.

The report argues that in addition to the economic security issue caused by piracy, it is important to consider other illegal activities, such as smuggling of weapons and drugs, illegal fishing, waste dumping and smuggling of humans.

Human rights policies of all groups in Somalia criticized

2011-08-18T12:13:00.000-04:00

In mid-August, Human Rights Watch issued a report on the human rights situation in Somalia titled "You Don't Know Who to Blame."

Although the report is more critical of al-Shabaab than any other group, it also identifies abuses by the Transitional Federal Government, the African Union troops in Mogadishu, and Somali militias supported by Kenya and Ethiopia.

Al-Shabaab, the international community and famine in Somalia

2011-08-14T22:16:00.000-04:00

I call to your attention an excellent interview with Rashid Abdi, Nairobi-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, published by the Council on Foreign Relations on 10 August, 2011.

Abdi emphasizes the factions in al-Shabaab and the negative impact they are having on providing food to needy Somalis. While it was slow to deal with the problem, I think Abdi is excessively critical of the response to the drought by the international community and its earlier failure to invest in agriculture in the Juba Valley.

How does the international community deliver food to areas where it is excluded by al-Shabaab and how does it invest in agriculture in the Juba Valley that is controlled by al-Shabaab?

"Withdrawal of al-Shabab Offers Hope to Somalia's Transitional Government"

2011-08-11T10:09:00.000-04:00

I'm quoted in Mariama Diallo's piece on Voice of America. Here's one of my quotes from the piece:

There are those who think more latitude ought to be given to Western aid agencies, there are those who don’t want Western aid in but they do allow the Islamic aid agencies. If I had to look at any mistake that al-Shabab has made in the last couple of years, this is by far the biggest: they’ve absolutely botched the relief effort and the Somali people don’t like it.

Here's the video:

Can Uganda avoid the Oil resource curse?

2011-08-09T14:05:00.000-04:00

The Center for Global Development in Washington published in July 2011 a study titled “Oil for Uganda – or Ugandans? Can Cash Transfers Prevent the Resource Curse?”

Tullow oil camp, Uganda. Flickr/Mark Jordahl

Written by Alan Gelb and Stephanie Majerowicz, the paper considers the tradeoffs and potential impact of alternative uses of the oil rent. It argues that alternative approaches towards absorbing rents should be judged from two perspectives — the direct impact on growth and living standards, and the indirect effect on governance.

The paper argues that Uganda’s deteriorating governance and mounting corruption raise questions about its capacity to wisely invest oil revenues. The paper urges distribution of oil rents to the population through cash transfers so as to give Ugandan citizens a stake in their own resource wealth. While an interesting idea, one wonders how this would reduce the potential for corruption.