International Journal of Ethiopian Studies

The 2013 issue of the International Journal of Ethiopian Studies is now available.  It contains the following articles:

• The Dichotomy between Reality and Rhetoric in African Politics: Placing Ethiopia in the 'Continental' Pan-African Movement by Belete Belachew Yihun.
• Critical Reflections on an Oromo Aphorism and Emancipation by Maimire Mennasemay.
• The Politics of the Imposed and Negotiation of the Emerging Nile Basin Regime by Aaron Tesfaye.
• The Quest for Equitable Resolution of the Nile Waters Dispute: Wandering in the Wilderness? by Dereje Zeleke Mekonnen.
• Politics and Religion in Haile Selassie's Ethiopia: Apogee and Crisis of a Confessional African State (1916-1974) by Paolo Borruso.

You can order a copy for $25 by going to the Tsehai Publishers website at www.ijes.tsehaipublishers.comwww.ijes.tsehaipublishers.com.

Grand Renaissance Dam Back on Egypt's Agenda

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa published on 28 November 2013 a commentary titled "Egypt's Transitional Government Prepares for Battle over Ethiopia's Giant Dam on the Nile" by Peter Fabricius, foreign editor of Independent Newspapers.  He believes that Egypt's transitional government is taking a softer approach to the dispute than the Morsi government.

Waters of the Nile--Dispute Simmers but Armed Conflict Unlikely

The Washington-based Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) published on 27 November 2013 a brief analysis titled "Waters of the Nile--Dispute Simmers but Armed Conflict Unlikely" by George F. Ward, an IDA research staff member and former US ambassador to Namibia.  Ward concludes that a way out of this dispute may be through regional water and hydropower sharing cooperation.

Paper on Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam

Global Dialogue published in its Summer/Autumn 2013 edition a paper titled "The Human Security Dimensions of Dam Development: the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" by Jennifer C. Veilleux, Oregon State University geography PhD student.  The paper is based on research done at the location of the Renaissance Dam and emphasizes issues of human security. 

Continung Tension along Sudan and South Sudan Border

Foreign Affairs published on 8 October 2013 a letter from Jerome Tubiana, Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group titled "Sudan and South Sudan Inch Toward War."  While the letter contains useful on the ground coverage of the situation along the Sudan-South Sudan border, the title of the letter is unfortunate.  It implies that South Sudan and Sudan are edging toward another war.  Localized border conflict continues to be a problem and could worsen, but neither Sudan nor South Sudan is interested in pursuing another devastating war. 

Egypt Loses Momentum on Nile Issues

The Voice of America ran a useful update on 15 July 2013 by David Arnold on the Nile water issue titled "Nile Power Shifts Away from Egypt."  The thrust of the article is that Egypt has been losing influence over Nile water issues while upstream countries have been gaining influence.

Turkish View of Nile Water Issues

Traditional reed boat on Blue Nile river. Flickr/Marta Semu

Turkey's Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies published on 7 June 2013 a brief analysis titled "Egypt, Ethiopia and Blue Nile." The author is Seyfi Kilic, a research specialist in the Water Research Program.  Although some of the English is a bit odd, it offers a useful analysis from a Turkish perspective.

AP Story on Nile Water and Renaissance Dam

AP published on 2 July 2013 an article by Kirubel Tadesse titled "The Big Story: Ethiopia's Big Nile Dam Is Compared to Hoover Dam."  The article notes that Ethiopia will start filling the reservoir behind the dam in 2014, a process that will take five to six years.  This is the most sensitive issue as concerns Egypt because it will hold back some water from reaching the Aswan Dam until the reservoir is full and the Blue Nile flows normally again.  The volume of water flowing down the Blue Nile varies from year to year.  Consequently, it seems to me this factor will have to be taken into account during the filling of the reservoir so as not to cause unnecessary harm to downstream Sudanese and Egyptian interests.  High water volume in the Blue Nile could speed up the filling process; low water volume could slow it down. 

The article quotes my views on the prospect of future conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt over construction of the Renaissance Day. 

Nile Water Discussion

Press TV in the United Kingdom asked me to join a discussion on Nile water issues.  The program titled "Is the Water War between Egypt and Ethiopia Getting Out of Control?" aired on 3 July 2013.  The moderator of the Africa Today program was Henry Bonsu.  The other panelists on the 25 minute program were Assefa Seifu, former commander in the Ethiopian army, and Wafik Mustapha, president of the Egyptian community association in the UK.

Hydropower Politics: The Struggle for Control of the Nile

The July 2013 issue of Africa in Fact: The Journal of Good Governance Africa has a useful analysis titled "Hydropower Politics: The Struggle for Control of the World's Longest River" by Elissa Jobson, a freelance journalist based in Ethiopia.

Whose Nile Is It?

Writing for Frontline on 26 June 2013, John Cherian offers a useful and generally accurate summary of the Nile water issue titled "Whose Nile is It?"

Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, Blue Nile Water Flow and Impact on Egypt

Writing for the Christian Science Monitor on 25 June 2013, William Davison produced an excellent analysis on the impact of filling the reservoir behind Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, which is now under construction.

Rendition of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam/Wikipedia

Titled "Will Ethiopia's 'Grand' New Dam Steal Nile Waters from Egypt?" the article addresses the critical issue that impacts Egypt:  how long will it take to fill the reservoir behind the Renaissance Dam and how much water will this process siphon off annually until the reservoir is filled.

Once the reservoir is filled, the Blue Nile flows as before with only an adjustment for evaporation from the reservoir.  But this could be an advantage because the rate of evaporation will be lower than if the water is stored in the much hotter area behind the Aswan High Dam.

For those of you interested in the technical aspects of this hugely important issue, I recommend a 2008 study titled "Sediment in the Nile River System" by Abdalla Abdelsalam Ahmed and Usama Hamid A.E. Ismail and a 2010 article in the Nile Basin Water Science and Engineering Journal titled "Investigation of Step Trends of the Nile River Flow Time Series" by Ageel I. Bushara and Tagreed Abdelrahim.  All of these authors are Sudanese.  They explain the importance of the variable flow of all Nile tributaries from one year to another and the timing of the high and low flows of the rivers.  

Heat Over the Nile

Solomon Ayele Dersso, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, provided on 18 June 2013 a balanced commentary titled "Heat over the Nile" on the issues surrounding the Renaissance Dam.

Engineering and Environmental Aspects of the Renaissance Dam

Asfaw Beyene, professor of mechanical engineering and director of the Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency at San Diego State University, published on 14 June 2013 an informative commentary titled "Reflections on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."  The focus is on the engineering and environmental aspects of the dam. 

Bloomberg Article on Nile Water

Bloomberg published on 17 June 2013 an extensive article titled "Egypt's Nile Threats Weaken to Secure Water Case: Shinn."  The authors are William Davison and Salma El Wardany. 

William Davison did a followup article on 18 June 2013 titled "Ethiopia Agrees with Egypt, Sudan to Study Nile-Dam Impact."

Interview on Nile Water

EthiopiaFirst.com asked me to respond to several questions concerning the Nile water issue.  The website published the interview on 14 June 2013 titled "Discussion with Amb. David H. Shinn on the Issue of Nile Water."

Why There Won't Be a Nile Water War

Harry Verhoeven, who teaches African politics at the University of Oxford, wrote a piece on 13 June 2013 for Aljazeera titled "Why a 'Water War' Over the Nile River Won't Happen."  It is a balanced piece that emphasizes the need for regional integration. 

In June 2011, he wrote a detailed report for Chatham House titled "Black Gold for Blue Gold? Sudan's Oil, Ethiopia's Water and Regional Integration."  I ran it on the blog in 2011; it is worth revisiting.   The focus is on the Ethiopia-Sudan relationship, but it is relevant to Ethiopia's relations with Egypt.  It contains a complete listing of actual and proposed hydropower projects in Sudan and Ethiopia. 

Egyptian and Ethiopian Views on Renaissance Dam and Nile Waters

There seems to be no end to the war of words over construction of the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia and related Nile water issues.  I have selected three recent articles that represent the Egyptian position, Ethiopian position and one that looks at both sides.

1. The first is a Bloomberg article published on 10 June 2013 titled "Egypt Urges Cooperation on Ethiopia's Nile River Hydropower Dam" that quotes Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil.  The headline is misleading in that the article opens by noting that Qandil said his government opposes Ethiopia's construction of a dam on the [Blue] Nile River.
2. The second is a piece that appeared on 12 June 2013 in Pambazuka News titled "Reasonable Discussion of Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam" by Fasil Amdetsion, senior policy and international legal advisor in Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  Although measured, it looks at the issue from the perspective of Ethiopian interests.
3. The third is an article titled "Ethiopia 'Frustrated' by Egyptian Statements on GERD" in the 12 June 2013 Daily News, Egypt's only daily independent newspaper in English.  It tries to look at both the Egyptian and Ethiopian arguments. 

More Fiction Than Fact Being Reported on Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam

Much of the reporting in the past week on Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, under construction on the Blue Nile, has been inflammatory and misinformed.  The following two items struck me as balanced  reporting: Ziad Khalifeh's 6 June 2013 piece in the Arabian Gazette titled "Nile Dams--Egypt, Ethiopia, Look for Safe Ground" and an Associated Press piece dated 3 June 2013 titled "Panel Report: Nile Dam Won't Affect Egypt."

Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nile Water

The Egyptian private daily newspaper, Youm 7, asked me to respond to a series of questions concerning Egypt's relations with Ethiopia and the impact of Ethiopia's new Renaissance Dam on Egypt.  I submitted my responses on 1 June 2013, before the Egyptian public relations debacle on this issue noted in a posting below dated 5 June 2013.  Youm 7 published the interview translated into Arabic on 6 June 2013.  You can also read the original English version titled "Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nile Water."