Reforming the Sudan People's Liberation Movement

The Institute for Security Studies published in August 2014 an analysis titled "Reforming the SPLM: A Requisite for Peace and Nation Building" by Paula Cristina Roque, a specialist on South Sudan and Angola.

The author concludes that transforming the SPLM entails ensuring that politics become demilitarized; party structures reach the grassroots; and decision-making rules and leadership succession processes are established.  The SPLM must neutralize the military legacy of being structured according to Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) seniority, demobilize private militias, and allow the SPLA to become a professional, depoliticized national army.  It also requires more political consultation.

South Sudan Crisis: Is There Hope for a Durable Solution?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Nairobi published on 28 July 2014 commentary titled "South Sudan Crisis: Is There Hope for a Durable Solution?" by Sebastian Gatimu, ISS Nairobi.  He concluded that the peace process now taking place in Addis Ababa could end as a quick fix political solution without solving the underlying and deeply entrenched basic problems. 

Civil Society and the South Sudan Crisis

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 14 July 2014 a commentary titled "Civil Society and the South Sudan Crisis" by Jerome Tubiana, ICG's senior analyst for Sudan.  The analysis draws heavily on the author's experience with the crisis in Darfur and concludes that civil society representatives must provide substantive input to the mediation's outputs--from the basic framework agreement to a new constitution.

Local Peace Processes in Sudan and South Sudan

The US Institute of Peace (USIP) published on 6 May 2014 a report titled "Local Peace Processes in Sudan and South Sudan" by Jacqueline H. Wilson, a senior program officer at USIP's Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding.

The author notes that local and intercommunal violence continues unabated.  Local conflicts related to cattle raids and grazing rights and persistent national conflicts are inextricably linked in Sudan and South Sudan, complicating efforts to reduce violence and build sustainable peace.  She argues that smaller, more regular meetings focused on a limited number of agenda items are likely to have greater effect than large conferences addressing many topics.

South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 10 April 2014 a comprehensive analysis titled "South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name." 

Although the dispute within the SPLM that led to the conflict was primarily political, ethnic targeting, communal mobilization and spiraling violence quickly led to appalling levels of brutality against civilians, including deliberate killings inside churches and hospitals.

ICG argues that propping up the government in Juba and polishing its legitimacy with a dose of political dialogue and a dash of power sharing will not end the conflict.  New constituencies have to be admitted to a national dialogue and their perspectives respected, including armed groups and disaffected communities that go beyond the contending forces within the SPLM/A, as well as women and civil society more generally.

South Sudan: No Power-Sharing without Political Reform

The Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA) reprinted a two-part analysis from Uganda's New Vision titled "South Sudan: No Power-sharing without Political Reform" by Mahmood Mamdani, director of the Makerere Institute of Social Research.

Mamdani emphasizes that power-sharing alone likely means a return to the status quo ante.  The solution is to combine meaningful political reform with reconciliation and power-sharing.  Reconciliation without political reform would be no more than window dressing. 

Ending South Sudan's Devastating Conflict

The Juba-based Sudd Institute published on 24 February 2014 a policy brief titled "A Search for Lasting Peace: Ending South Sudan's Devastating Conflict" by Nhial Tiitmamer and Abraham Awolich, both with the Sudd Institute.  The brief analyzes the problem and recommends solutions to end the conflict and prevent future conflicts.

Which Way to Peace in South Sudan?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa published two brief commentaries on the situation in South Sudan. 

One dated 10 February 2014 and titled "South Sudan: What Is Really Standing in the Way of Lasting Peace?" by Sibongile Gida, intern, and Amanda Lucey, senior researcher at ISS, emphasizes that the provision of basic services is not as important as how they are distributed and to whom.

The second dated 11 February 2014 and titled "Talks in Addis Ababa Should Focus on a Political Solution for South Sudan" by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS consultant, argues there will be no peace until the dispute within the ruling elite is addressed.

South Sudan: Is Peace Possible?

The Rift Valley Institute in Nairobi hosted on 10 January 2014 a discussion of the situation in South Sudan with civil society representatives.  A summary of the discussion has been published as "South Sudan: Is Peace Possible?" 

Analysis of Crisis in South Sudan

The Juba-based independent think tank, The Sudd Institute, published on 4 January 2014 an analysis titled "South Sudan and the Prospects for Peace Amidst Violent Political Wrangling" by Jok Madut Jok, cofounder of the Institute. 

This informative analysis suggests that ethnic politics has been overplayed in analyzing the recent crisis in South Sudan.  The real question is the degree to which ethnic identity is employed by the politicians who are vying to control the state.  Jok also warns that any attempt by the South Sudan government to punish rebel leader Riek Machar will only prolong the conflict. 

Sudan, South Sudan and Abyei

The Sudd Institute, an independent research organization based in Juba, published on 29 October 2013 an analysis titled "Abyei Final Status: A Mismanaged and Unyielding Stalemate" by Zacharia Diing Akol, director of training at the Sudd Institute. 

The analysis concludes that the only way to break the deadlock over Abyei is for the African Union and especially the AU Peace and Security Council to endorse the proposal of the AU High Level Implementation Panel, which is under the chairmanship of former South African president Thabo Mbeki.  This proposal called for the long-delayed referendum on the future of Abyei to take place in October 2013. 

Sudan's Approach to Darfur

Amin Hassan Omer, Sudan's Minister of State for Darfur, and Al Tijani Seisi, chairman of the Darfur Regional Authority and leader of the Liberation and Justice Movement, made a presentation at Chatham House in London on 8 May 2013.  A summary of their remarks appeared under the title "Sudan's Approach to Darfur: Resolving a Decade of Conflict." 

They spoke about the government of Sudan's approach to Darfur after ten years of conflict and the displacement of more than two million Darfuris.  The speakers described Sudan's plans for an effective and inclusive political process, and the role of the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur as a basis for achieving a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Sudan-South Sudan Border and Grazing Conflict

The border between Sudan and South Sudan is not fully delimited or demarcated.  It is highly militarized by numerous armed groups.  All along the border there is confusion about which administrative levels should control grazing routes.  Joshua Craze, PhD candidate at UC Berkeley, just released a paper titled "Dividing Lines: Grazing and Conflict along the Sudan-South Sudan Border" that looks at the issue through the lens of the 2011-2012 grazing season, the first since South Sudan's independence.  Seasonal pastoralist movements through the border regions are one of the central reasons for tension between the two states.

Conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 18 June 2013 an extensive report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (II): War in Blue Nile."  It covers all aspects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State.

The ICG concludes that Blue Nile State has become a major battleground for the ideological competition between two opposed models: Khartoum's attempts at unifying and centralizing the country with a dominant Arab-Islamic identity, which South Sudan's separation is paradoxically reviving, versus the rebel SPLM/A's and now Sudan Revolutionary Front's agenda for a more inclusive and devolved Sudan.  Attempts to resolve Blue Nile's past and current conflicts reflect Sudan's existential dilemma as to how best it should define itself.

South Sudan Dispute Resolution

The South Sudan Law Society (SSLS), a civil society organization based in Juba, published in March 2013 an extensive report titled "Challenges of Accountability: An Assessment of Dispute Resolution Processes in Rural South Sudan."  The author is David K. Deng.

The SSLS report concluded that South Sudan has not yet established a justice system that affords predictable and reliable legal protection for the poor and marginalized and meets the basic requirements for justice for its people.  To develop such a justice system, the government of South Sudan must overcome a number of challenges, including widespread impunity for inter-communal and politically motivated violence and pervasive injustices in the customary and statutory courts. 

Peace and Reconciliation in South Sudan

The Sudd Institute, an independent research organization based in Juba, published a report dated 7 June 2013 titled "Peace and Reconciliation in South Sudan: A Conversation for Justice and Stability."

The report concludes there must be a national dialogue aimed at repairing relations among South Sudanese communities.  The report explains why the dialogue is needed, what it means to South Sudan, how to conduct it, who participates and who should lead it.  The report argues that while the top political leadership of South Sudan must put its moral weight behind the project, it should not be in charge of the peace and reconciliation program.   

Report on Conflict in Sudan's South Kordofan

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released on 14 February 2013 a detailed report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (I): War in South Kordofan."  It points out that the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), which is based in the Nuba Mountains, is well armed and has an alliance with a Darfur rebel group, the Sudan Revolutionary Front.

ICG concludes that the conflict between the SPLM-N and the Sudan government forces have reached a strategic stalemate.  The SPLM-N has as many as 30,000 soldiers while the number of government troops in South Kordofan is estimated at between 40,000 and 70,000.  ICG states that "neither side is strong enough to win militarily."

Insecurity in South Sudan

The Juba-based Sudd Institute published a report on 12 January 2013 by Jok Madut Jok titled Mapping the Sources of Conflict and Insecurity in South Sudan.  The report reached the following conclusions:
 --Ethnic violence continues to plague rural communities across South Sudan.
--This violence, combined with rising urban crime, the actions of security forces, the targeting of foreign laborers, and the weakness of the justice system, means that South Sudan is a society living in fear.
--In the eyes of many South Sudanese, the state has consistently appeared weak or complacent in the face of these complex security challenges.
--In the absence of functioning law enforcement and judiciary systems to address the insecurity and violence in urban centers, the country is left in a climate of accusations and rumors.
--Many South Sudanese say all they have experienced so far is increased violence and disappointment.

Cooperation Agreements between Two Sudans

South Sudan. Flickr/BBC

Jok Madut Jok reviewed in a 5 December 2012 policy brief for the Sudd Institute, an independent research organization based in Juba, the nine agreements reached in September in Addis Ababa between Sudan and South Sudan.

The agreements deal with oil revenue sharing, trade, security, borders, citizenship, population movements and debt. He argues that South Sudan signed the agreements under the "duress" of international pressure and and the press of domestic economic and security challenges. He believes South Sudan received a bad deal on several of the economic agreements. Nevertheless, he urges South Sudan to move forward with their implementation.

Click here to read the analysis.

Analysis of Conflict in the Sudans

Marina Ottaway and Mai El-Sadany wrote an analysis titled Sudan: From Conflict to Conflict published in May 2012 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. It concludes that the failure of efforts to bring peace to greater Sudan, especially the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, does not bode well for the chances of avoiding new decades of conflict and the countries' continued impoverishment. All signs suggest that the transition from greater Sudan to the Republics of Sudan and South Sudan is not the end of a conflict but rather the beginning of multiple new ones.

Click here to read the analysis.