Sudan and US Sanctions

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 29 September 2017 a commentary titled "A New Roadmap to Make U.S. Sudan Sanctions Relief Work."

The United States will decide by October 12 whether to lift permanently economic and trade sanctions that the Obama administration suspended in January 2017. The ICG concludes that lifting the sanctions is the wiser course. If the US declines to lift sanctions, it risks losing considerable future leverage with Sudan and reinforces Khartoum's belief that Washington cannot be relied upon to honor its commitments.

Is US Planning to Lift Some Sudanese Sanctions?

The Washington Post published on 28 August 2017 an article titled "Director Green Visits Darfur as U.S. Considers Lifting Sanctions on Sudan" by Carol Morello.

The recent visit to Darfur by the director of the U.S. Agency for International Development is apparently linked to the on-going U.S. government review of long-standing sanctions against Sudan. The article suggests the possibility that some sanctions may be removed.

China's Policy in South Sudan

The International Crisis Group published on 10 July 2017 a study titled "China's Foreign Policy Experiment in South Sudan."

Because of its oil interests in South Sudan, China has advocated a more flexible interpretation of the non-interference policy and taken a more proactive approach to its exercise of diplomacy. China continues to draw a line at intruding on matters of domestic governance; opposes regime change or unilateral military intervention; and believes that showing respect, rather than exerting pressure or inflicting punishment, is how to elicit cooperation and improvement in governance. But its considerable economic and political influence inevitably bring leverage to the table that traditional mediation efforts sometimes lack.

Should US Continue Partial Removal of Sanctions on Sudan?

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 22 June 2017 a commentary titled "Time To Repeal U.S. Sanctions on Sudan?"

By 12 July 2017, the Trump administration must determine whether to permanently lift the economic and trade sanctions the Obama administration suspended in January. The ICG argues the US should repeal some sanctions and continue a process of conditional engagement.

Sudan-Egypt Ties: Not All Is Well

Al-Monitor posed on 31 March 2017 an article titled "Despite Talk of Good Relations, Security Concerns Darken Egypt-Sudan Ties" by Ayah Aman.

The article identifies a series of security issues that complicate Sudan-Egypt relations and suggests that Sudan is moving closer to the Gulf States and Ethiopia on several important regional matters such as countering terrorism and the Nile waters.

Protecting Civilians in African Union Peace Support Operations

The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) has just published a monograph titled "Protecting Civilians in African Union Peace Support Operations: Key Cases and Lessons Learned" edited by Jide Martyns Okeke, African Union Commission in Addis Ababa, and Paul D. Williams, George Washington University.

The entire document can be downloaded. It includes chapters on protecting civilians in Darfur from AMIS to UNAMID, the African Union Mission in Somalia, Mali, and the Central African Republic.

Sudan and the Peace Process

The Kampala, Uganda-based Sudan Democracy First Group (SDFG) posted on 17 February 2017 a commentary titled "Can a Peaceful Political Process in Sudan be Revitalized through the AUHIP? Challenges and Opportunities."

The SDFG suggests ways the African Union High-level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki can revitalize the Sudan peace process.

Is Sudan Coming in from the Cold?

World Politics Review published on 20 January 2017 an article titled "Is Sudan Coming in from the Cold?" by Andrew Green. The article reports on the recent easing of US sanctions against Khartoum and suggests this could be a prelude to eventual normalization of US-Sudan relations.

Qatar and the Horn of Africa

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in November 2016 a study titled "Qatar's Diplomatic Incursions into the Horn of Africa" by Berouk Mesfin, senior researcher at ISS.

The author concluded that Qatar punches above its weight diplomatically by acting as a mediator in conflicts in the Horn of Africa. The results have been mixed, with negotiations hampered by the centralization of foreign policy in the person of Qatar's emir. However, Qatar's successes have been impressive.

Sudan's Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons

The Institute for Security Studies published on 11 October 2016 a commentary titled "Think Again: Sudan Is the Exception that Proves the Rule on Chemical Warfare in Africa" by Simon Allison.

The commentary discusses the charge put forward by Amnesty International that Sudan has used chemical weapons in Darfur. It notes the Sudan government's denial of the charge but leaves the impression that chemical weapons were likely used.

Amnesty International Charges Sudan Uses Chemical Weapons in Darfur

Amnesty International issued a statement on 29 September 2016 titled "Sudan: Credible Evidence of the Use of Chemical Weapons to Kill and Maim Hundreds of Civilians Including Children in Darfur Revealed."

Amnesty's investigation that used satellite imagery and more than 200 interviews with survivors concluded that at least 30 likely chemical attacks have taken place in the Jebel Marra area of Darfur since January 2016. Sudan military forces launched in January 2016 a campaign in the Jebel Marra area against the Sudan Liberation Army/Abdul Wahid forces who they accuse of ambushing military convoys and attacking civilians.

Warming in US-Sudan Relations?

Gulf News published on 21 September 2016 an article titled "US Eyes Rapprochement with Sudan in Nod to Allies."

Quoting the State Department press spokesman's friendly comments about US-Sudan cooperation on countering terrorism, the article suggests the US "is now eyeing a rapprochement with Sudan." I would caution that the US has been down this road on several previous occasions with no appreciable improvement in bilateral relations.

Sudan over the Past Year

The Rift Valley Institute published on 25 May 2016 an overview titled "This Year in Sudan" by Douglas Johnson and Guma Kunda Komey. It summarizes key political and economic developments in Sudan over the past year.

Janjaweed Armed by Sudan to Fight Rebels

Foreign Policy published on 19 May 2016 an article titled "'The Shrapnel Finds Us Wherever We Hide': Sudan's Janjaweed Are Back. Only This Time They're Better Armed" by Tom Rhodes, managing editor of Nuba Reports, and Musa John, freelance journalist.

The authors report that the government of Sudan has armed the infamous Janjaweed from Darfur to fight SPLA-N rebels in the Nuba Mountains.

Failure of the Addis Ababa Talks on Sudan

The Sudan Democracy First Group published on 30 November 2015 a commentary titled "The Failure of the Addis Ababa Talks: Insistence on War, Prevention of Humanitarian Aid and Monopoly on Political Solutions." 

It discusses the suspension of negotiations between the government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement North, on the one side, and between the government of Sudan and the Justice and Equality Movement and Sudan Liberation Movement Minni Minnawi, on the other. 

Thaw in US Relations with Sudan?

The Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS) published on 5 November 2015 a commentary titled "Khartoum Shuffles in from the Western Cold" by Peter Fabricius, ISS consultant. 

The author reports a couple of small policy changes by the United States aimed at improving relations with Khartoum and suggests they may portend a more normal relationship with Sudan.  While these steps have angered human rights advocacy groups, they fall far short of putting Washington on a path of normalizing relations with Khartoum.

Horn of Africa Security Updates

The Institute for Security Studies published its September 2015 Peace and Security Council Report, which provides updates on key security issues in the Horn of Africa.

The report looks at Kenya's plans to relocate Dadaab, the world's largest refugee camp, on the grounds it is a hotbed of al-Shabaab activity.

A field mission to Darfur reports on continuing violence despite the presence of African Union and United Nations peacekeepers.

It is critical of efforts by President Barack Obama to end the civil war in South Sudan during his recent visit to the region.

The report covers the new AMISOM offensive in Somalia aimed at further degrading al-Shabaab.

Diversion of Arms from Peacekeepers in Sudan and South Sudan

The Small Arms Survey published in July 2015 a detailed report titled "Under Attack and Above Scrutiny? Arms and Ammunition Diversion from Peacekeepers in Sudan and South Sudan, 2002-14" by Eric G. Berman and Mihaela Racovita.  It is the first independent review of weapons lost in peacekeeper operations.

There were more than 100 attacks on peacekeepers in Sudan and South Sudan between 2005 and 2014.  At least half of them resulted in the loss of arms and ammunition, most of them in the Darfur region. 

Sudan and the Gulf States

The Enough Project published in June 2015 a report titled "The Many Faces of al-Bashir: Sudan's Persian Gulf Power Games" by Omer Ismail. 

The author argues that Sudan's inclusion in the Arab coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, the recent agreement on a framework for a nuclear deal with Iran, and the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Egypt on Nile waters all dramatically alter Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's views of his opportunities.  Sudan's growing economic dependence on the Gulf States means, however, that those countries now have more leverage to press the NCP to agree to the political reforms and the negotiated compromises with the opposition that are needed to forge a lasting peace.

Role of the Police in the AU-UN Peacekeeping Mission in Darfur

The Institute for Security Studies published on 2 April 2015 a study titled "The Role of the Police in UNAMID" by Marina Caparini, Festus Kofi Aubyn, Olivia Victoria Davies, Meressa K. Dessu, and Mateja Peter. 

It examines the role of the police component in the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID).  The report focuses on training of Sudanese government police and community policing volunteers in IDP camps and training of UNAMID personnel.  It identifies good practices and makes recommendations for the UNAMID police.