Sudan's 2019 Protests Bring Back Memories of 1985 Government Fall

The Washington Post published on 5 February 2019 a commentary titled "What Sudan's Uprisings Says about the Nation's Past--and the Arab World's Future" by David B. Ottaway, Woodrow Wilson Center.

Harking back to the overthrow in 1985 of President Jafaar Nimeri following street protests in Khartoum, the author says the circumstances surrounding his downfall and those threatening President Omar al-Bashir with the same fate are quite similar.

I was in Khartoum during the fall of Nimeri and agree that the circumstances today are surprisingly similar to those in 1985. There is, however, at least one important difference. Al-Bashir learned from the events in 1985 and has made a much greater effort to ensure the loyalty of the security services. Unless and until there are cracks in the security apparatus, he may be able to hold on.

Red Sea Rivalries

Foreign Affairs posted on 15 January 2019 an analysis titled "Red Sea Rivalries: The Gulf States Are Playing a Dangerous Game in the Horn of Africa" by Zach Vertin, Brookings Institution's Doha Center.

As the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey seek to expand their influence in the Horn of Africa, they are exporting Middle Eastern rivalries to a region that has plenty of its own. The increasingly militarized Red Sea region is likely to remain a dangerous battleground.

Brookings published in January 2019 a linked piece by Zach Vertin titled "Red Sea Rivalries: The Gulf, the Horn & the New Geopolitics of the Red Sea."

A Peaceful Transition in Sudan?

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 14 January 2019 an analysis titled "Improving Prospects for a Peaceful Transition in Sudan."

The ICG concludes that President Omar al-Bashir is running out of time. Unable to reverse the economic deterioration, he must rely on repression to contain a population increasingly enraged at worsening living conditions. But the harsher his repression, the more probable his relations with the West deteriorate again and the farther the funds necessary to turn around the economy slip from his reach. Bashir may well survive this round of protests. But if he does, it will almost certainly be at the cost of further economic decline, greater popular anger, more protests and even tougher crackdowns. At some point, his departure appears inevitable. Outside powers should do everything possible to prevent violence in the meantime, work for as smooth a transition as possible and find him an exit.

Complicated Politics of Red Sea Region

The US Institute for Peace published on 19 December 2018 an interview with me titled "In Red Sea Region, Competing Outside Powers Complicate U.S. Interests."

The focus of the interview is the role in the Red Sea region of the Gulf States, Turkey, China and Russia on relations with states in the Horn of Africa and the impact on U.S. interests in the region.

Horn of Africa, Gulf State Politics, US and China

The American Conservative posted on 3 December 2018 a commentary titled "What Is Saudi Arabia Up to in the Horn of Africa?" by James Jeffrey, freelance journalist.

The author argues that as Gulf State politics increasingly roil the situation in the Horn of Africa, the United States is focusing less on counterterrorism and more on political and economic challenges from China and Russia.

Horn of Africa-Gulf State Relations Become Increasingly Complex

The National Interest published on 28 November 2018 an article titled "Is Middle Eastern Rivalry Good for Africa?" by Seth J. Frantzman, a Jerusalem-based journalist.

Each passing week seems to bring more complexity to the relationship between the countries in the Horn of Africa and the Arab Gulf. Other key regional players are Turkey, Egypt, and Iran.

The United Arab Emirates in the Horn of Africa

The International Crisis Group published on 6 November 2018 an analysis titled "The United Arab Emirates in the Horn of Africa."

The UAE and Saudi Arabia played a useful role in pushing forward the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. But competition among Gulf States is posing serious problems for political stability in the Horn of Africa, especially Somalia, as their differences play out in the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and the Gulf States

World Politics Review published on 24 October 2018 an interview with Awet Weldemichael, Queens's University in Canada, titled "What Does the Thaw Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Mean for Somalia?"

The author assesses the recent normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea and its impact on the situation in Somalia. He emphasizes that the role of the Gulf States and Turkey in the Horn of Africa is complicating the ability of Somalia to resolve its internal political problems.

Ethiopia and the Gulf States

The Institute for Security Studies published on 27 September 2018 an analysis titled "Spotlight: Informing Ethiopia's Response to Middle East Interest in the Horn" by Roba Sharamo.

This piece discusses how Ethiopia must adapt its economic and political strategy to the foreign policy outlook of ambitious and wealthy Middle East nations.

South Sudan Conflict Challenges US Policy in Horn of Africa

The US Institute of Peace (USIP) published in September 2018 a report titled "South Sudan's Civil War and Conflict Dynamics in the Red Sea" by Payton Knopf, advisor to the Africa program at USIP.

As the United States' role as the dominant external actor in the Horn of Africa is increasingly challenged, the jostling for influence among other states has led to the militarization of the Red Sea region and has further fractured an already fragmented political and security landscape. The author argues that ending South Sudan's civil war and mitigating the region's other interstate hostilities and intrastate conflicts will require the US to break out of the geographic and thematic silos that currently constrain its strategic vision and action.

Eritrea's Foreign Policy Success May Inhibit Domestic Policy Reform

African Arguments posted on 12 September 2018 a commentary titled "Eritrea: Why Change Abroad Doesn't Mean Change at Home" by Salih Noor.

The author argues that Eritrea's improved relations with Gulf States may strengthen and embolden President Isaias Afwerki so that he avoids making needed domestic reforms.

Can Ethiopia's Reforms Succeed?

Foreign Policy posted on 10 September 2018 an analysis titled "Can Ethiopia's Reforms Succeed? What Abiy's Plans Mean for the Country and the Region" by Michael Woldemariam, Boston University.

The author concludes that it is not yet clear whether Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will succeed, and progress so far has been mixed. But if he does, Ethiopia will have a chance not only to reinvent itself but also to bring a wave of reform and perhaps even democratization to the wider region.

Where Is the US in Africa?

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in August 2018 a paper titled "The World Is Coming to Sub-Saharan Africa. Where Is the United States?" by Judd Devermont, director of the Africa program at CSIS.

The paper argues that the United States is stepping away from Sub-Saharan Africa while the rest of the world is increasing engagement. This shrinking posture not only forgoes opportunities for U.S. trade and investment, it also precludes the United States from shaping outcomes in the region and beyond.

Foreign Policy Agenda for Somalia

The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in August 2018 a policy brief titled "Somalia Needs a Cogent Foreign Policy Agenda."

It argues that Somalia must carefully craft a foreign policy agenda anchored around the following principles: do no harm, independence, trade, and consensus building.

Politics in the Horn of Africa: A Shuffled Deck

The Africa at LSE blog posted a commentary titled "Transformation Euphoria in the Horn of Africa" by Abukar Arman, a former Somali diplomat.

The author evaluates the new complexities of relationships in the Horn of Africa and the impact of Gulf State interests in the region. Increasingly, politics in the Horn of Africa is looking like a card game of 52 pick up.

Water Security and the Horn of Africa

Foreign Affairs published on 9 August 2018 an article titled "Water Wars on the Nile" by Daniel Benaim and Michael Wahid Hanna.

The article looks at the increasingly complicated water issues in the Horn of Africa concerning construction of Africa's largest dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and food security needs of both the Horn of Africa countries and the Gulf States. On top of this are security interests of Turkey, Egypt, and the Gulf States. The authors argue the US should be giving more high level attention to this potentially explosive mix.

US Challenges in the Red Sea Region

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published on 20 July 2018 a commentary titled "Blowing the Horn: How the United States Can Reclaim the Strategic Initiative in the Bab el Mandeb" by Alice Friend and Melissa Dalton, both at CSIS.

The commentary urges the United States to update its policy in the Horn of Africa to take into account all of the recent geopolitical changes involving the Gulf States, China, Ethiopia/Eritrea, and Turkey.

A New Political Order in the Red Sea Basin?

African Arguments posted on 11 July 2018 an analysis titled "Beyond the Red Sea: A New Driving Force in the Politics of the Horn" by Alex de Waal.

There is a chasm between the multilateralism of states in the Horn of Africa and the types of relationships cultivated by the Gulf States where politics are transactional and bilateral. A short-term "Pax Arabica" may emerge based on Gulf State money used to meet African leaders' urgent cash needs. But this is not a foundation for durable peace and security.

Gulf States Destabilize Somalia

World Politics Review published on 29 June 2018 a commentary titled "Gulf Rivalries Extend into the Horn of Africa, Further Destabilizing Somalia" by Ilya Gridneff, a Somalia analyst based in Kenya.

As Western influence wanes in the Horn of Africa, clashing visions of how to engage with the region, from rival Gulf states to Turkey, will only intensify, threatening the unity of Somalia most of all.

Gulf States Increase Tension in Somalia

The Institute for Security Studies published on 20 June 2018 a commentary titled "Somalia Must Look Inward To Defuse Its Tensions" by Omar S. Mahmood.

Somalia's federal member states have been upset with Mogadishu's foreign policy direction since last year. Somalia's government has sided with Qatar in the Gulf State disputes in opposition to federal member states' interests. While other Horn of Africa countries have been pressured to choose sides in this dispute, Somalia has suffered the worst consequences.