Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia

Foreign Policy posted on 15 January 2019 a commentary titled "Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia" by Florian Bieber, University of Graz in Austria, and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu, Addis Ababa University.

Similar to the former Yugoslavia, Ethiopia is a federal state with nine units organized along ethnic lines. Empowering ethnic groups through territorial autonomy has been a double-edged sword. While allowing self-government has reduced tensions stemming from the dominance of a particular group, it places ethnic belonging at the center of politics, links it to territory, and therefore risks an eventual increase in ethnic tensions. The Yugoslav scenario offers a cautionary tale.

Another Voice on Ethiopia Federalism

Ethiopia Insight published on 10 January 2019 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Federation Needs Reviving, Not Reconfiguring" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, PhD candidate at Georgetown University.

The author argues that the problem with Ethiopia's federalism is not its ethnic character but the need to democratize the federation.

Ethiopia: Parties Struggle to Gain Political Advantage

Ethiopia Insight posted on 9 January 2018 a commentary titled "TPLF Hegemony Has Ended, But EPRDF Power Struggle Is Just Beginning" by Mastewal Dessalew, a US-based software engineer.

The author argues that the ruling EPRDF parties have lost a unifying political ideology. In the meantime, the author says the EPRDF "is a collection of factions engaged in medieval-like political intrigue in order to become the country's dominant force."

Ethiopia: Challenges Facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

World Politics Review posted on 3 January 2019 a commentary titled "In a Bold Experiment, Ethiopia's Abiy Aims to Put Citizenship Over Ethnicity" by Frida Ghitis, world affairs columnist.

The author concludes that the challenge for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his reformist allies is to strengthen Ethiopians' bonds to the state, develop credible national institutions, and craft a credible mechanism for resolving inflamed ethnic disputes while fostering a commitment to his democratic program.

Ethiopia: Ethnic Conflict in Amhara Region

Ethiopia Insight published on 16 December 2018 an article titled "Violent Qemant Dispute Fueling Explosive Amhara-Tigray Divide" by William Davison, Solomon Yimer, Kibreab Beraki.

The status of the Qemant people, a group of less than 200,000 in Amhara region, has become one of the most recent areas for ethnic conflict. The violence is tied to the deteriorating relations and territorial disputes between the Amhara and Tigray governments.

Struggle for Ethiopia's Future

Ethiopia Insight posted on 3 December 2018 a commentary titled "Can Team Lemma Bridge Ethiopia's Political Chasm?" by Nyikaw Ochalla, an indigenous people's rights activist.

The author discusses the current struggle in Ethiopia between the ethnic nationalists and the patriotic unionists.

Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism under Pressure

Ethiopia Insight posted on 28 November 2018 an analysis titled "As Southern Nations Break Free Pressure Mounts on EPRDF" by William Davison and Kulle Kursha.

The authors look at the fragmentation taking place in Ethiopia's Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' State and speculate what this means for Ethiopia's policy of ethnic federalism.

Ethiopia: Military Conglomerate Under Fire

Ethiopia Insight posted on 22 November 2018 an analysis titled "MetEC's Wasteful Blunders Should End Ethiopia's Fling with Military Business" by Zekarias Beshah Abebe.

Ethiopia's Metals and Engineering Corporation (MetEC), a conglomerate linked to the military, has been accused of corruption. The author argues it should be subject to the same oversight mechanisms as other public enterprises.

Debate on Ethiopia's Reform Program

Rene Lefort recently published in Ethiopia Insight a commentary on political developments in Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (see the posting for 21 October below). In a long rejoinder in the 25 October 2018 Ethiopia Observer, Messay Kebede, University of Dayton in Ohio, took issue with many of Lefort's conclusions. Lefort responded on 29 October 2018 in a piece published by Ethiopia Insight.

Readers can judge for themselves.

Ethnic Issues Expand to Northern Ethiopia

Ethiopia Insight posted on 28 October 2018 an article titled "After Eritrea Thaw, Tigray's Southern Border with Amhara Heats Up" by Solomon Yimer, freelance journalist, and Kibreab Beraki, based in Mekele.

The article analyzes territorial disputes along the border of Tigray and Amhara states, suggesting that ethnic conflicts are spreading to northern Ethiopia.

Ethiopia Faces Political Uncertainty

Ethiopia Insight published on 21 October 2018 an analysis titled "Ethiopia: Climbing Mount Uncertainty" by Rene Lefort, who has written on African issues since the 1970s.

The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made three huge strategic errors as he announced his reform program. There are now four future scenarios, all of which are steep and tortuous as Ethiopia faces a mountain of uncertainty.

Ethiopia: A Look at the State of Political Parties

Ethiopia Insight posted on 19 October 2018 a commentary titled "Rising Allies May Breach Frontier Despite EPRDF Stalling on Expansion" by Elias Gebreselassie, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

The author suggests the the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition may face more significant competition from smaller ethnic-based political parties in future elections.

Can Ethiopia's EPRDF Be Saved?

Ethiopia Insight published on 3 October 2018 a commentary titled "The Old EPRDF Is Dead, Can Its System Be Saved? Five Steps To Save the Federation" by Mehari Taddele Maru, consultant to IGAD, AU and UN.

The author explains why the EPRDF federal system is in danger and suggests a way to avoid a drift towards majoritarian rule and worsening instability.

Ethnic Violence Challenges Ethiopia

The Conversation posted on 1 October 2018 a commentary titled "How Ethnic Violence Is Destabilizing Ethiopia's Reform Gains" by Yohannes Gedamu, George Gwinnett College.

Ethnic conflict is breaking out in a number of Ethiopian regions. The author argues that as long as the Abiy Ahmed government remains fixated on a group rights agenda these problems will continue. This approach privileges division over national unity.

Ethnic Violence in Ethiopia

Ethiopia Insight published on 26 September 2018 an analysis titled "Mob Killings Split Ethiopians As Political Fault Lines Test Abiy's Big Tent" by Nizar Manek, Addis Ababa correspondent for Bloomberg News, and Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

This is an account of the recent ethnic violence in various parts of Ethiopia and the threat that it poses to the unity of the country.

Is the Ethiopia-Eritrea Peace Permanent?

The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 13 September 2018 a commentary titled "Eritrea and Ethiopia Embrace, But for How Long?" by Michael Jones.

The author concludes that while peace remains subject to the whims of Eritrea's president, structural and regional changes help to ensure that peace is in the interest of both parties.

Can Ethiopia's Reforms Succeed?

Foreign Policy posted on 10 September 2018 an analysis titled "Can Ethiopia's Reforms Succeed? What Abiy's Plans Mean for the Country and the Region" by Michael Woldemariam, Boston University.

The author concludes that it is not yet clear whether Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will succeed, and progress so far has been mixed. But if he does, Ethiopia will have a chance not only to reinvent itself but also to bring a wave of reform and perhaps even democratization to the wider region.

Harmonious Ethnic Relations Remain Key to Ethiopia's Success

The Washington Post published on 25 August 2018 an article titled "Ethiopia's Reforming Prime Minister Runs into a Roadblock of Ethnic Unrest" by Paul Schemm.

The article underscores the fragility of ethnic relations in Ethiopia and how the accelerated reform program of the new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, may be contributing to those tensions.

Ethiopia: Oromo Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 14 August 2018 a commentary titled "Oromo Political Victory Masks Volatile Region As Liberation Front Presses Claim" by Ermias Tesfaye, an analyst based in Burayu.

This is an insiders analysis of the current state of the rapidly changing political situation in Oromia Region of Ethiopia.

Resolving the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Conflict

African Arguments posted on 18 June 2018 a commentary titled "Resolving the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border: What Actually Needs To Be Done?" by Martin Plaut.

The author argues that the road to resolution of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute requires the immediate support and involvement of the UN and the rest of the international community.