Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 25 April 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?" with Alan Boswell and Abdul Mohammed, long time follower of Sudanese issues. 

The war in Sudan is effectively eliminating the concept of a Sudanese state.  Sudan has been at war with itself since independence.  Western Sudan is becoming integrated into the Sahel region and eastern Sudan is part of the Horn of Africa. One cannot rule out partition of the country.

What is needed now is a full-time mediation effort led by the African Union with complete bilateral and multilateral support.  Sudan can be pieced together again because most Sudanese people want unity.

Ethiopia: Tigray's Political Transition

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 April 2025 a commentary titled "Strategic Pathways for Tigray's Political Transition" by an anonymous author with over 20 years of academic, non-profit, and government experience.  

The author believes Tigray Region is at a crossroads in its political history.  His comments suggest a pragmatic and strategic approach for Tigray's new leadership, focusing on resolving key issues such as power-sharing among factions, restoring territorial integrity, fostering diplomatic relations, and dealing with the complex socio-political dynamics in Tigray.  

China Focuses on Dialogue and Development to Reach Peace in the Horn of Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 28 January 2025 an article titled "China's Strategy for Peace in Horn of Africa Is Slow-going, But Will It Ever Reap Rewards?" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

Questions remain whether China's emphasis on dialogue and development will ever bring peace to the conflict prone Horn of Africa.

Ethiopian Egyptian Tension in the Horn of Africa

 African Arguments published on 6 October 2024 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Quest for a Seaport, Egypt and the Geopolitics of the Nile Basin" by Mohamed Kheir Omer.

This piece reviews the historical animosity between Ethiopia and Egypt, concluding that only renewed dialogue and mutual compromise can pave the way for lasting peace and stability in the region.

Debating the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 The Washington Post published on 8 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Controversial Quest for the Sea" by Ishaan Tharoor.  

The article looks at the arguments on various sides of the controversial topic without taking a strong position on any side.  

Egypt Says Talks over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Have Failed

 Reuters published on 20 December 2023 an article titled "Egypt Says Talks over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Have Failed - Statement."

Egypt issued a statement on 19 December that the latest talks with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have failed, adding it would monitor the process of filling and operating the dam.  Egypt said it reserves the right to defend its water and national security interests in case of any harm.

Ethiopia's Campaign to Obtain Access to the Red Sea

 The Ethiopia Observer published on 15 October 2023 an article titled "'Securing Red Sea Access Vital for Ethiopia's Survival,' Abiy Ahmed."

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed commented that Ethiopia is seeking access to the Red Sea through purchase, leasing, or any mutual arrangement.  He added that "if we don't find an alternative through dialogue, . . . it could be dangerous."

The Ethiopia Observer published on 16 October 2023 an article titled "Eritrea Says It Will Not Engage in Sea Access-related Issues."

The government of Eritrea responded that it is not interested in discussions about Ethiopia's desire for access to the sea.

BNE Intellinews published on 18 October 2023 an article titled "Somalia Rejects Ethiopia's Call for Negotiations on Red Sea Access" by Marco Cacciati.

The government of  Somalia responded that while it is committed to promoting peace and regional integration, it is not inclined to grant access to a strategically significant asset like a port.  

Somaliland.com posted on 22 October 2023 an article titled "Djibouti Rejects Ethiopia's Plea for Direct Sea Access, Joining Eritrea and Somalia" by Xamse.  

The government of Djibouti rejected, albeit gently, the idea that it has any interest in granting Ethiopia guaranteed access to the Red Sea.

Is China Ready to Mediate the Sudan Crisis?

 The South China Morning Post published on 24 April 2023 an article titled "Does China Have a Role to Play in Helping to End Sudan's Crisis?" by Zhao Ziwen.  

China is in a good position to mediate the crisis between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, but until now has not shown any intention to do so.  China has only called for an end to the fighting and a return to dialogue.  

Channel News Asia Podcast on China in Sudan and Africa

 Channel News Asia in Singapore posted on 19 April 2023 a 13 minute podcast titled "Will Beijing Step Up to Broker Peace in Sudan?" with me.

Although the focus is on China and Sudan, the podcast also covers China's loan policy in Africa and African public opinion towards China and the United States. 

Sudan's Conflict Is a Test for China's Peacemaking Skills

 The South China Morning Post published on 18 April 2023 an article titled "Violence in Sudan a Test for China's Ambitions in Africa: Analysts" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China has significant, albeit declining, economic interests in Sudan and stands with the rest of the international community to lose them.  While China has called for an end to the fighting and encouraged dialogue among the warring factions, it has otherwise been surprisingly quiet on the conflict.  

China Elaborates on Its Global Security Initiative

 President Xi Jinping announced on 21 April 2022 a new Global Security Initiative (GSI) at the Boao Forum for Asia's annual conference in China.  This nebulous initiative raised more questions than it answered about China's "new" security policy.  

On 21 February 2023, China issued "The Global Security Initiative Concept Paper" that provided additional details about the initiative.  Foreign Minister Qin Gang summarized the concept paper by noting it lays out 20 priorities of cooperation for "upholding the UN's role in security governance; promoting coordination and sound interactions among major countries [not identified], facilitating peaceful settlement of hotspot issues through dialogue; tackling traditional and non-traditional security challenges; and strengthening the system and capacity for global security governance."

Comment:  There is relatively little that is "new" in the GSI, although several themes have evolved in the Xi Jinping era.  It mostly brings together long-standing Chinese foreign policy principles such as support for state sovereignty, non-interference in internal affairs, multilateralism, dialogue, and opposition to sanctions.  The concept paper underscores the centrality of Xi Jinping's "community of shared security for mankind" and support for the UN and African Union's peacekeeping mandate, peaceful coexistence, arms control, ASEAN-centered regional security cooperation, Africa-led counter-terrorism operations, UN-led fight against global terrorism, international security governance on artificial intelligence and outer space, global food and energy security, the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, and cooperation to address climate change.

China's goal is clearly to place security issues in forums where China has more influence or has established mechanisms where it has control such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the China-Horn of Africa Peace, Governance and Development Conference.  

Tigray Conflict: Need for Dialogue Platform to Build Trust

 Eurasia Review published on 30 November 2022 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Needs a Peace Coalition To Underpin Its New Accord" by Tegbaru Yared, Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa.

The author urges the creation of a dialogue platform for stakeholders from Tigray, Amhara, and Afar Regions to build trust and inspire acceptance of the peace agreement.  

Webinar on Ethiopian Peace Agreement

 Samuel M. Gebru, a Tigrayan, organized an hour long webinar on 4 November 2022 titled "Understanding the Ethiopia-Tigray Peace Process" with Alex de Waal, World Peace Foundation, Susan Stigant, US Institute of Peace, and Joshua Meservey, Heritage Foundation.  

Some of the highlights of their remarks include that there is no perfect peace agreement.  The will to implement the agreement is more critical than the signing of the agreement.  There will likely be violations.  Some of the terms of the agreement appear to be unrealistic.  Eritrea was not part of the peace process and its intentions are not known; Eritrean forces were continuing military activity as of today. The agreement requires both sides to take into account the "situation on the ground," which implies that Eritrean forces must leave Ethiopia.  There was concern that all of the negotiators were male on both sides of the table.  Going forward, it is imperative in include females in the process.  

What is Behind South Africa's Policy on Putin's Invasion of Ukraine?

 The Mail & Guardian published on 2 March 2022 a commentary titled "Why Is South Africa Not Condemning Russia's Invasion of Ukraine?" by Richard Calland, University of Cape Town.

South Africa failed to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and is calling for dialogue to bring the conflict to a conclusion.  The author asks if South Africa's position is being determined by a "principled commitment to political dialogue" or policy contamination by Russian interference.  

Economic Community of West African States Condemns Russia's War on Ukraine

 The Economic Community of West African States based in Abuja, Nigeria issued a statement on 27 February 2022 concerning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Economic Community of West African States expressed great concern at the military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, strongly condemned the action and called on both parties to solve their differences through dialogue.  

Sudanese Pro-democracy Forces Split over UN-brokered Talks

 Aljazeera published on 16 January 2022 an article titled "Sudan Pro-democracy Faction Agrees to UN-brokered Talks."

The pro-democracy Forces of Freedom and Change agreed on 16 January to accept the offer by the UN mission to broker an end to the political deadlock with the military.  The pro-democracy Sudanese Professionals Association has rejected the UN offer.

ESAT Interview on Biden/Abiy Telephone Call

 ESAT TV posted on 13 January 2022 a 50-minute interview with me titled "Biden Calls to Abiy: Change in Approach or Policy?" moderated by Gizaw Legesse.

The focus of the interview was the significance of the telephone call between President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  It also dealt with issues related to Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia.  

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Civil War

 Fairplanet, a registered social enterprise founded in Berlin, published on 5 January 2022 a commentary titled "The Forgotten Victims of the Tigray War" by Olusegun Akinfenwa.

The author concludes it is time for all sides to negotiate and arrive at a progressive agreement for posterity's sake.

China's Position on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 Xinhua published on 8 July 2021 an article titled "Chinese Envoy Asks for Resumption of Talks Over Blue Nile Dam."

China has called for the resumption of negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan led by the African Union on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  China says the issue can be resolved only through dialogue and consultation.  

Ethiopia: Ethnic Issues Beyond Tigray

 The International Crisis Group broadcast on 4 December 2020 a 28 minute podcast titled "As Conflicts Mount, Where Does Ethiopia Go from Here?" with Adem Kassie Abebe, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

Numerous cases of ethnic violence continue in Ethiopia that extend well beyond Tigray Region.  The author believes the overriding issue in Ethiopia today is the conflict between ethnic federalism and pan-Ethiopianism.  Abiy Ahmed, he argues, is trying to occupy the  middle ground between these two philosophies although his opponents see him in the pan-Ethiopian camp.