The Africa Report, which is published by the Jeune Afrique Media Group, ran on 25 July 2019 an analysis titled "The US Must Pay Attention to New Chinese Capital Flows to Africa" by Aubrey Hruby.
The author argues that the strategic threat to future US competitiveness in African markets are not Chinese government-to-government loans to finance infrastructure, but rather the growing Chinese footprint in areas of traditional US investment strengths, such as foreign direct investment, private equity, and venture capital.
Friday, July 26, 2019
The Gulf's Growing Role in Africa
The Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore just published a short report titled "The Gulf's Growing Role in Africa."
The focus of the report is Gulf State investment in Africa, especially in infrastructure and the agricultural sector. The Gulf States import an estimated 80 percent to 90 percent of their food and are looking for ways to guarantee food security.
The focus of the report is Gulf State investment in Africa, especially in infrastructure and the agricultural sector. The Gulf States import an estimated 80 percent to 90 percent of their food and are looking for ways to guarantee food security.
Thursday, July 25, 2019
Any Point in Dialogue with Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram?
The Institute for Security Studies published on 24 July 2019 a policy brief titled "How Viable Is Dialogue with Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram?" by Akinola Olojo.
The author notes that the campaign against terror groups in the Lake Chad Basin and Horn of Africa relies heavily on the use of force as a strategy. However, this approach is not providing a sustainable solution. Although dialogue with terror groups is a sensitive and complex undertaking, he argues it needs to be explored as a policy option that can complement existing counter-terrorism approaches.
The author notes that the campaign against terror groups in the Lake Chad Basin and Horn of Africa relies heavily on the use of force as a strategy. However, this approach is not providing a sustainable solution. Although dialogue with terror groups is a sensitive and complex undertaking, he argues it needs to be explored as a policy option that can complement existing counter-terrorism approaches.
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Musing on Ethiopian Politics
Ethiopia Insight posted on 24 July 2019 a long commentary titled "Election in End Times" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, a specialist in constitutional law and political theory.
The author argues better that Ethiopia hold a sham election in 2020 than no election at all. The choice is between civil war and peace.
The author argues better that Ethiopia hold a sham election in 2020 than no election at all. The choice is between civil war and peace.
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
China-Africa Peace and Security Forum
Ventures published on 22 July 2019 an article titled "China-Africa Peace and Security Forum: A New Partnership for Old Problems" by Ovigwe Eguegu.
The author asks if the newly created China-Africa Peace and Security Forum will produce peace in Africa or just papers for Africa and receipts for China.
The author asks if the newly created China-Africa Peace and Security Forum will produce peace in Africa or just papers for Africa and receipts for China.
Gulf State Conflicts Play Out in Somalia
The New York Times published on 22 July 2019 an article titled "With Guns, Cash and Terrorism, Gulf States Vie for Power in Somalia" by Ronen Bergman and David D. Kirkpatrick.
The article describes in detail a recent episode in Bosaso, a port city located in the Puntland region of Somalia, where conflict between Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is playing out.
The article describes in detail a recent episode in Bosaso, a port city located in the Puntland region of Somalia, where conflict between Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is playing out.
Monday, July 22, 2019
Outcome in Sudan May Determine Future of Horn of Africa
Foreign Affairs published on 19 July 2019 a commentary titled "What Happens in Sudan Doesn't Stay in Sudan" by Michael Woldemariam, Boston University, and Alden Young, UCLA.
The authors argue that the historic transition underway in Sudan will likely determine the future of the Horn of Africa for the next decade or more.
The authors argue that the historic transition underway in Sudan will likely determine the future of the Horn of Africa for the next decade or more.
Saturday, July 20, 2019
US Competes with China in Africa
China General Television Network America ran a half hour podcast on 18 July 2018 titled "The Heat: US Competes with China in Africa." The participants included Ken Gichinga, Mentoria Economics, Sanusha Naidu, Institute for Global Dialogue, Victor Gao, Center for China and Globalization, and myself.
The discussion focused on the new US strategy towards Africa as it competes with China. The focus was on trade, aid, investment and the different approaches towards Africa by the United States and China. I had hoped to respond to Victor Gao's claim that China provides more grant aid to Africa than the United States, which is inaccurate. Over the last decade, the United States has provided about $8 billion annually to Africa in OECD-equivalent aid, nearly all of it grant aid. While it is difficult to obtain reliable numbers for China's aid to Africa, most experts who have studied the matter put China's annual OECD-equivalent aid to Africa at about $2.5 billion.
The discussion focused on the new US strategy towards Africa as it competes with China. The focus was on trade, aid, investment and the different approaches towards Africa by the United States and China. I had hoped to respond to Victor Gao's claim that China provides more grant aid to Africa than the United States, which is inaccurate. Over the last decade, the United States has provided about $8 billion annually to Africa in OECD-equivalent aid, nearly all of it grant aid. While it is difficult to obtain reliable numbers for China's aid to Africa, most experts who have studied the matter put China's annual OECD-equivalent aid to Africa at about $2.5 billion.
Somalia: Shafting Power to Somalis
The Elephant, a Kenyan platform for dialogue, published on 18 July 2019 a commentary titled "Insecurity in Somalia: Is Mogadishu's 'Green Zone' Part of the Problem?" by Abukar Arman, a Somali-American foreign policy analyst.
The author argues that the heavily fortified area at the Mogadishu airport known as the "Green Zone," where much of the country's interaction with the international community takes place is part of Somalia's problem. He says that Somali leaders must radically change their practices and govern in ways that protect Somalia's national interest and resources. He seems to imply that it would be better if the African Union peacekeeping operation, AMISOM, left the country. He does not, however, make a convincing case that Somalia could protect itself from al-Shabaab without AMISOM.
The author argues that the heavily fortified area at the Mogadishu airport known as the "Green Zone," where much of the country's interaction with the international community takes place is part of Somalia's problem. He says that Somali leaders must radically change their practices and govern in ways that protect Somalia's national interest and resources. He seems to imply that it would be better if the African Union peacekeeping operation, AMISOM, left the country. He does not, however, make a convincing case that Somalia could protect itself from al-Shabaab without AMISOM.
Friday, July 19, 2019
Djibouti: Take the Money and Run?
The Globe and Mail published on 16 July 2019 an article titled "Djibouti's Debt-defying Stunt: Taking China's Money without Accepting China's Control" by Geoffrey York.
As a result of financing most of Djibouti's infrastructure projects, Chinese financial institutions hold the vast majority of Djibouti's external debt. Djibouti insists it is retaining a majority stake in each project. But when China finances the projects and holds a significant chunk of the equity, along with short-term contracts to manage and operate the railway and some of the ports, the Chinese influence can be massive.
As a result of financing most of Djibouti's infrastructure projects, Chinese financial institutions hold the vast majority of Djibouti's external debt. Djibouti insists it is retaining a majority stake in each project. But when China finances the projects and holds a significant chunk of the equity, along with short-term contracts to manage and operate the railway and some of the ports, the Chinese influence can be massive.
Kidnappings of Chinese Nationals in Nigeria
The Diplomat published on 12 July 2019 an article titled "Fresh Kidnappings of Chinese Nationals in Nigeria" by Eleanor Albert.
The Chinese community in Nigeria numbers an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 persons. As the size of the community grows, the more susceptible it becomes to attack. Two recent kidnappings underscore this point although the kidnappings have not stymied the growth of economic ties between China and Nigeria.
The Chinese community in Nigeria numbers an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 persons. As the size of the community grows, the more susceptible it becomes to attack. Two recent kidnappings underscore this point although the kidnappings have not stymied the growth of economic ties between China and Nigeria.
Ambassadors from 16 African States Support China's Treatment of Uyghurs
The New York Times published on 12 July 2019 an article titled "China's Retort Over Its Mass Detentions: Praise from Russia and Saudi Arabia" by Nick Cumming-Bruce.
Ambassadors of 37 states from Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America signed a letter to the president of the United Nations Human Rights Council praising China's "contribution to the internal human rights cause." Referring to China's "reeducation centers" in Xianjiang Province, the letter said security had returned to the region and the fundamental human rights of people of all ethnic groups there had been safeguarded. This followed a letter signed by 22 mainly European countries that urged China to halt arbitrary detention of Xinjiang's ethnic Muslim Uyghurs and other minority groups.
Ambassadors from 16 African countries signed the letter. They included Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, Nigeria, Togo, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Angola, and Zimbabwe.
This is surely a new low in hypocrisy for the signatories, especially those from Muslim countries and those with a large Muslim minority.
Ambassadors of 37 states from Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America signed a letter to the president of the United Nations Human Rights Council praising China's "contribution to the internal human rights cause." Referring to China's "reeducation centers" in Xianjiang Province, the letter said security had returned to the region and the fundamental human rights of people of all ethnic groups there had been safeguarded. This followed a letter signed by 22 mainly European countries that urged China to halt arbitrary detention of Xinjiang's ethnic Muslim Uyghurs and other minority groups.
Ambassadors from 16 African countries signed the letter. They included Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, Nigeria, Togo, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Angola, and Zimbabwe.
This is surely a new low in hypocrisy for the signatories, especially those from Muslim countries and those with a large Muslim minority.
Thursday, July 18, 2019
Background on January 2019 Al-Shabaab Attack in Nairobi
The CTC Sentinel published in July 2019 an article titled "East Africa's Terrorist Triple Helix: The Dusit Hotel Attack and the Historical Evolution of the Jihadi Threat" by Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra, both with the Sahan think tank in Nairobi.
The authors point out that the attack on 15 January 2019 of an office complex in Nairobi, Kenya, by al-Shabaab that killed 21 people and injured at least 28 involved Kenyan nationals of non-Somali descent. They conclude that al-Shabaab's longstanding ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a truly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing a new and dangerous phase in the group's evolution and the threat that it poses to the region.
The authors point out that the attack on 15 January 2019 of an office complex in Nairobi, Kenya, by al-Shabaab that killed 21 people and injured at least 28 involved Kenyan nationals of non-Somali descent. They conclude that al-Shabaab's longstanding ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a truly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing a new and dangerous phase in the group's evolution and the threat that it poses to the region.
Sudan: UN Security Council and African Union Fault Lines
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 17 July 2019 an analysis titled "Can the AU and UN Find Common Ground on Sudan?" by Priyal Singh, ISS Pretoria, and Daniel Forti, International Peace Institute.
Discord has developed between the security councils of the African Union and the United Nations in their efforts to stabilize Sudan. The African Union has taken a position opposed by two permanent members--China and Russia--of the UN Security Council because of their views on non-interference in member states' internal affairs. The three African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, and the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, support the position of the African Union. This sets up a potential unfortunate disconnect between the UN Security Council and the African Union.
Discord has developed between the security councils of the African Union and the United Nations in their efforts to stabilize Sudan. The African Union has taken a position opposed by two permanent members--China and Russia--of the UN Security Council because of their views on non-interference in member states' internal affairs. The three African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, and the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, support the position of the African Union. This sets up a potential unfortunate disconnect between the UN Security Council and the African Union.
Ethiopia's Power, Security and Democracy Dilemma
The Institute for Security Studies published on 15 July 2019 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Power, Security and Democracy Dilemma" by Semir Yusuf.
The author concluded that political change has come rapidly in Ethiopia, raising expectations that the country is finally on the road to democracy. The challenge is Ethiopia's legacy of a strong state that is currently perceived as fragile and unwilling to restore security and the rule of law.
The author concluded that political change has come rapidly in Ethiopia, raising expectations that the country is finally on the road to democracy. The challenge is Ethiopia's legacy of a strong state that is currently perceived as fragile and unwilling to restore security and the rule of law.
Putin's African Dream
Modern Diplomacy has just published a handbook titled "Putin's African Dream and the New Dawn: Challenges and Emerging Opportunities" by Kester Kenn Klomegah, an independent research writer and a policy consultant in the Russian Federation and Eurasian Union. Modern Diplomacy is a platform that publishes "international issues that are often outside the boundaries of mainstream Western media and academia." Partner organizations include the Russian International Affairs Council.
The handbook looks at Russia-Africa relations mostly through the eyes of Russian officials, business persons, and academics and its release is timed to precede the Russia-Africa Summit at Sochi in October 2019. It is a helpful guide in explaining how Russia currently views Africa and what it hopes to achieve at Sochi and afterwards. Russia has not been particularly active in Africa since the end of the Cold War. It remains to be seen if its relationship with Africa will become a "new dawn."
The handbook looks at Russia-Africa relations mostly through the eyes of Russian officials, business persons, and academics and its release is timed to precede the Russia-Africa Summit at Sochi in October 2019. It is a helpful guide in explaining how Russia currently views Africa and what it hopes to achieve at Sochi and afterwards. Russia has not been particularly active in Africa since the end of the Cold War. It remains to be seen if its relationship with Africa will become a "new dawn."
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Fixing US Diplomacy in Africa
World Politics Review published on 17 July 2019 a commentary titled "How to Fix America's Absentee Diplomacy in Africa" by Howard W. French, a career foreign correspondent.
The author suggests that the United States should pay more attention to Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, two of Africa's largest states that will determine the destiny of much of Africa. He also recommends a freezing of ties with African leaders who ignore term limits or otherwise remain in power for an excessive period of time.
The author suggests that the United States should pay more attention to Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, two of Africa's largest states that will determine the destiny of much of Africa. He also recommends a freezing of ties with African leaders who ignore term limits or otherwise remain in power for an excessive period of time.
Chinese Presence in African Technology Sector
The Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies posted a 23 minute podcast on 9 July 2019 titled "Tom Bayes on Chinese Presence in the African Tech Sector" with Tom Bayes, a China-Africa researcher.
This wide-ranging interview discusses some of China's latest interaction with Africa in the technology sector. Bayes said Chinese private and state-owned enterprises are interested in Africa because it is a large market and a place to make money. This engagement adds a mostly positive dimension to China's engagement in Africa. He discusses Huawei's lead in 5G technology and the huge market share captured by Transsion, a Chinese company that has focused on inexpensive mobile phones for Africans. He also comments on the 5-year practice by Chinese technical staff at the Chinese-built African Union headquarters to transfer secretly each evening all messages back to a facility in Shanghai. The African Union subsequently took steps to end the spying.
This wide-ranging interview discusses some of China's latest interaction with Africa in the technology sector. Bayes said Chinese private and state-owned enterprises are interested in Africa because it is a large market and a place to make money. This engagement adds a mostly positive dimension to China's engagement in Africa. He discusses Huawei's lead in 5G technology and the huge market share captured by Transsion, a Chinese company that has focused on inexpensive mobile phones for Africans. He also comments on the 5-year practice by Chinese technical staff at the Chinese-built African Union headquarters to transfer secretly each evening all messages back to a facility in Shanghai. The African Union subsequently took steps to end the spying.
India's Africa Policy
The German Institute for International and Security Affairs published in July 2019 a report titled "India's Africa Policy" by Christian Wagner.
India has become increasingly reliant on energy from Africa while Africa and its 54 countries are also relevant to India's global ambitions. India realizes that it does not have the means and instruments to compete with China in Africa. Nevertheless, China is influencing India's policy on the continent. India launched with Japan the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, which is designed to compete with China's economic engagement in Africa.
India has become increasingly reliant on energy from Africa while Africa and its 54 countries are also relevant to India's global ambitions. India realizes that it does not have the means and instruments to compete with China in Africa. Nevertheless, China is influencing India's policy on the continent. India launched with Japan the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, which is designed to compete with China's economic engagement in Africa.
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Trump's "Prosper Africa" Fixated on China
World Politics Review published on 16 July 2019 a commentary titled "Trump's 'Prosper Africa' Strategy Is Fixated on a Cold War-Like View of China" by Kimberly Ann Elliott, George Washington University.
The author points out that the $50 million proposed budget for Prosper Africa, the Trump administration's new Africa strategy, is a drop in the bucket compared to the administration's proposed 9 percent cut in overall aid to Africa. It is also a tiny fraction of financing offered by China.
The author points out that the $50 million proposed budget for Prosper Africa, the Trump administration's new Africa strategy, is a drop in the bucket compared to the administration's proposed 9 percent cut in overall aid to Africa. It is also a tiny fraction of financing offered by China.
Monday, July 15, 2019
Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution
The Journal of Democracy published in July 2019 an article titled "Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution" by Jon Temin and Yoseph Badwaza, both at Freedom House.
The authors concluded that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces major challenges before possible elections in 2020. He draws positive headlines around the globe, but is not always helped by his messaging at home. He and his government need to do more to lay out their vision of a comprehensive reform process with clear bench-marks and goals, and they need to set up mechanisms that can monitor progress and ensure accountability.
The authors concluded that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces major challenges before possible elections in 2020. He draws positive headlines around the globe, but is not always helped by his messaging at home. He and his government need to do more to lay out their vision of a comprehensive reform process with clear bench-marks and goals, and they need to set up mechanisms that can monitor progress and ensure accountability.
First China-Africa Peace and Security Forum
The First China Africa Peace and Security Forum opened in Beijing on 14 July 2019. Some 100 representatives from 50 African countries and the African Union are in attendance.
The text of the statement by ambassador Smail Chergui, AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, at the First China-Africa Peace and Security Forum spells out China's previous assistance to the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia and the African Standby Force.
The text of the statement by ambassador Smail Chergui, AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, at the First China-Africa Peace and Security Forum spells out China's previous assistance to the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia and the African Standby Force.
Saturday, July 13, 2019
Africa and the World Happiness Report 2019
The Sustainable Development Solutions Network published in March 2019 the 2019 edition of the "World Happiness Report" edited by John F. Helliwell, Richard Layard and Jeffrey D. Sachs. Factors considered in the rankings are GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity, and perception of corruption.
The 2019 report ranked 156 countries, 45 in Africa. The best ranked African countries were Mauritius (57), Libya (72), Nigeria (85), Algeria (88), and Morocco (89). The poorest ranked African countries were South Sudan (156), Central African Republic (155), Tanzania (153), Rwanda (152), and Malawi (150). Some of the rankings are counter intuitive. Who would have thought Libya is the second best rated African country or that Tanzania and Rwanda are near the bottom. It is important, however, to consider the factors used to construct the index.
The 2019 report ranked 156 countries, 45 in Africa. The best ranked African countries were Mauritius (57), Libya (72), Nigeria (85), Algeria (88), and Morocco (89). The poorest ranked African countries were South Sudan (156), Central African Republic (155), Tanzania (153), Rwanda (152), and Malawi (150). Some of the rankings are counter intuitive. Who would have thought Libya is the second best rated African country or that Tanzania and Rwanda are near the bottom. It is important, however, to consider the factors used to construct the index.
Friday, July 12, 2019
Ethiopia and Eritrea Rapprochement: The Bloom Is Off the Rose
The Conversation posted on 7 July 2019 a commentary titled "How Glow of the Historic Accord between Ethiopia and Eritrea Has Faded" by Martin Plaut, Institute of Commonwealth Studies.
The early optimism of the Ethiopia-Eritrea agreement is gone. Both countries are focused on other issues. The situation along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border is tense. The author suggests that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has returned to his unpredictable ways, making any predictions difficult.
The early optimism of the Ethiopia-Eritrea agreement is gone. Both countries are focused on other issues. The situation along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border is tense. The author suggests that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has returned to his unpredictable ways, making any predictions difficult.
South Africa Selects Chinese Huawei's 5G Network
The Standard Digital posted on 8 July 2019 an article titled "Cyril Ramaphosa: Huawei Is the Only Company that Can Bring 5G to South Africa."
In a rebuke to the United States, South Africa's president endorsed Huawei's 5G technology, adding that the China-US trade dispute should not adversely impact countries such as South Africa.
In a rebuke to the United States, South Africa's president endorsed Huawei's 5G technology, adding that the China-US trade dispute should not adversely impact countries such as South Africa.
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