The Pan African Review published on 21 November 2024 a commentary titled "What Somaliland's 2024 Elections Mean for the China-Taiwan Rivalry in the Horn" by Peter Kagwanja, Africa Policy Institute and former advisor to the government of Kenya.
Somaliland's drive for international recognition and its MOU with Ethiopia that traded Ethiopian diplomatic recognition for a military facility in Somaliland, contributed to the recent electoral defeat of President Muse Bihi Abdi and the Kulmiye party and the victory of opposition candidate Abdirahmin Mohamed Abdullahi and his Waddani party. President Abdi's close ties with Taiwan and Taipei's financial support for his reelection campaign added to the electoral backlash.
China has criticized the Somaliland-Taiwan relationship from the beginning and emphasized acceptance of the one China principle. In turn, it adopted a one Somalia policy and accused Taiwan of undermining Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The election of President Abdullahi in Somaliland tilts the balance of power in the Horn of Africa in favor of China. An added complication to this development is the predilection of the incoming Trump administration to favor diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.