Ethiopia Insight published on 10 November 2025 an analysis titled "Pawn on the Red Sea: Ethiopia's Afar Gambit" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is turning to Afar nationalism as a ploy to gain access to the Red Sea. Landlocked Ethiopia is invoking Afar victimhood under Isaias Afwerki in Eritrea and positioning Addis Ababa as a patron of Afar self-determination. How this eventually achieves access to the sea for Ethiopia is not clear.
In the meantime, Eritrea is deploying military forces along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border and arming proxy groups inside Ethiopia. Abiy's ploy also raises concerns in Djibouti, which has a minority Afar population.