Analysis of transition of South Sudan

Southern Sudan Referendum. Jan. 9, 2011. Source: Flickr/Christopher Stephens.

On April 4, 2011, the International Crisis Group published a good, if pessimistic, analysis of the current transition taking place in South Sudan.

A new transitional government will preside over a fixed term from July 9, 2011, during which a broadly consultative review process should produce a permanent constitution.

Two factors may shape the transition period:

1. The degree to which the South’s ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) allows opposition political parties to participate in a multi-party system, and
2. The will to undertake democratic reform within the SPLM, as intraparty politics continue to dominate the political arena.

Long-simmering political disputes are re-surfacing in South Sudan. A series of armed insurgencies, recent militia activity and army defections highlight internal fault lines and latent grievances within the security sector.

Jockeying has intensified between the SPLM and southern opposition parties over the composition and powers of a transitional government and duration of the transitional period. At the same time, Southern opposition parties are weak and their resources, membership and structures are thin.