Russian and Chinese Warships Visit South Africa

 Military Africa published on 5 October 2024 an article titled "Russian and Chinese Warships to Attend SA Navy Festival" by Sarah Lesedi.

The Russian Navy's frigate Neustrashimy and replenishment ship Akademik Pashin arrived in Simon's Town for the South African Navy Festival from 4 to 6 October.  They were joined by the PLA Navy frigate CNS Xuchang.  

The Daily Maverick published on 3 October 2024 an article titled "Russian and Chinese Warships Make Political Waves in Simon's Town" by Peter Fabricius.  

The arrival of the two Russian ships raised concerns in the Democratic Alliance, part of South Africa's ruling coalition government, about South Africa's alleged non-partisan posture toward Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian community in South Africa expressed outrage at the presence of the Russian ships.  The Daily Maverick was unable to get an answer from the government to its question why only warships from Russia and China were participating in the South African Navy Festival.  

Can Africa and Europe Counter Markets Flooded with Chinese Products?

 The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 4 October 2024 an article titled "Value-added and Value Lost: The Macroeconomic Limits of China's Africa Strategy" by Theodore Murphy.

China's manufacturing overcapacity relies on exports to the rest of the world, including Africa, flooding international markets with both low end and high-end Chinese-made goods.  As African economies try to increase their low value manufactured products, they must compete with low-cost Chinese products.  European economies face a similar problem from China's high-end manufacturing.  

The author suggests European and African economic policy makers should counter Chinese overcapacity jointly while creating new areas for Africa-Europe economic cooperation.

An Analysis of the Houthis War on Red Sea Shipping

 West Point's Combating Terrorism Center's Sentinel published in October 2024 an analysis titled "A Draw Is a Win: The Houthis after One Year of War" by Michael Knights, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.  

Between February and August 2024, an average of 852 ships per month transited the Red Sea compared to pre-war levels of more than 2,100 ships per month.  The article provides an especially good analysis of the rationale the Houthis use to target ships passing through the Red Sea.

Of the ships that continue to transit the Red Sea, the Houthis are attacking less than 5 percent of them.  The Houthis claim they only attack ships with a connection to Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom.  But, in fact, the Houthis have attacked ships with a variety of connections, including those from China, Russia, and Iran.  

Ethiopia's External Debt Dilemma

 Reuters published on 1 October 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia Expects 'Tangible Progress' on Deal with Creditor Nations by December" by Duncan Miriri.

Ethiopia defaulted on its external debt in December 2023 and hopes to reach a deal with creditors by the end of this year.  Ethiopia's debt stands at about $29 billion with half of it owed to multilateral lenders like the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank.  Of the $12 billion owed to bilateral lenders, China accounts for more than $7 billion, Paris Club countries under $2 billion, and Saudi Arabia just over $1 billion.  

China's Relations with Africa: A New Era of Strategic Engagement

 The March 2024 issue of The Journal of Modern African Studies published a review by Padraig Carmody of our book, China's Relations with Africa: A New Era of Strategic Engagement.  

China's Railway Politics in Africa

 Global China Pulse published on 2 October 2024 a discussion titled "The Railpolitik: A Conversation with Yuan Wang" hosted by Hong Zhang, Indiana University.

The discussion deals with Yuan Wang's recent book on the political context in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Angola where Chinese funding and contractors have been involved in building high-profile railway projects promising to transform the local landscape.  She identifies as a key factor the instrumentalization of the infrastructure by local leaders for the sake of their political survival.  

Future of Russia's Wagner Group in Africa

 The Russia Program at George Washington University published in September 2024 a carefully researched study titled "After Prigozhin Does Wagner Group Have a Future?" by Antonio Giustozzi and David Lewis, Royal United Services Institute.

Following the assassination of Yevgeniy Prigozhin, his son Pavel, has been working to establish the Wagner business on more independent footing.  Th Russian government has accepted a compromise in the case of Mali and the Central African Republic and included the Wagner Group in its revised contracts.  Wagner proved irreplaceable as far as engaging in combat was concerned.  These African regimes showed a clear preference for trusting regime security to Wagner.  

After some months attempting to figure out how to move on from Wagner, the Russian Ministry of Defense accepted that there was no real alternative to Wagner in Mali and the CAR and that having Wagner take on the most controversial jobs might continue to serve Moscow's interests.  Pavel Prigozhin appears to have been exploring options for operating independently of the Ministry of Defense but, in the end, might not need to separate completely from it.

Efforts to Prevent Oil Spill Disaster in Red Sea

 The Royal United Services Institute published on 1 October 2024 an analysis titled "Sounion Attack Brings Red Sea Shipping Crisis Back to the Fore" by Stavros Karamperidis.

The Houthi attack in the Red Sea on a Greek-flagged oil tanker, the Sounion, with 922,000 barrels of Iraqi crude has revived concerns about an environmental disaster.  The Sounion, which is still on fire, has been towed to the Eritrean coast where efforts are underway to extinguish the fires.  The Houthis agreed to the salvage operation once they realized the damage the Sounion could do to Yemen's coast.  

qCaptain published on 2 October 2024 an article titled "M/T Sounion Continues to Burn as Houthi Attacks Resume in Red Sea" by Mike Schuler.

This article provides an updated account of the Sounion salvage operation and a Houthi attack on another oil tanker.  

Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan on US Efforts to Support Democracy

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in October 2024 a paper titled "U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan" by Brittany Gleixner-Hayat.  

The author concluded that while there are limits to what the U.S. government could have reasonably done to increase the likelihood of democratization in Ethiopia and Sudan, Washington missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and did harm by exacerbating conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies.

The United States does not bear the responsibility for the failure of Ethiopia and Sudan to transition from authoritarianism to democracy.  The likelihood of democratization in both cases was low and the contexts were conflict prone.  However, the United States was a prominent external actor in both situations with a stated policy of supporting the consolidation of the democratic openings, so examining lessons learned is critical for future opportunities.

Yemen's Houthi Rebels Target Greek Ships

 Reuters published on 3 October 2024 an article titled "Houthis' Email Alert to Red Sea Ships: Prepare for Attack, with Best Regards" by Renee Maltezou and Jonathan Saul. 

Yemen's Houthi rebels sent on 2 October to at least six Greek shipping companies an email warning that their ships travelling through the Red Sea are at risk of attack, as if they did not already know that.  The Houthis have conducted about 100 attacks on ships in the Red Sea, sunk two, and seized another.  Almost 30 percent of the attacks have been against Greek ships.  The Houthis claim they are only attacking ships with ties to Israel, the United States, and United Kingdom, although this is clearly not the case.  

The Associated Press published on 1 October 2024 an article titled "Yemen's Houthi Rebels Launch Drone Boat that Hits Ship in Red Sea as Missile Strikes Another" by Jon Gambrell.

The Houthis attacked and hit with a drone boat on 1 October a Panamanian-flagged vessel in the Red Sea and fired a missile at a Liberian-flagged ship.

US--UAE Talks and Sudan

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 26 September 2024 a commentary titled "Washington's Mixed Messages on Fueling the War in Sudan" by Michelle Gavin.  

Following a meeting between President Joe Biden and UAE Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the White House issued a statement that included positive language about working to end the conflict in Sudan.  It does not, however, account for the fact that the UAE has been supporting one of the antagonists--the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  

South Sudan: A Road to Recovery?

 The October 2024 issue of the Foreign Service Journal has an article titled "South Sudan at 13: Reflections on Crisis, Aid, and the Road to Recovery" by Julius Kaut.  

South Sudan remains in crisis and dependent on humanitarian aid.  The civil war in Sudan has interrupted the flow of oil and elections scheduled for December may not take place.  Yet, the author remains optimistic about South Sudan's future.  

PLA Navy Steps Up Port Calls in South Africa

 Defence Web published on 30 September 2024 an article titled "Indian, Brazilian, and Chinese Warships Heading to South Africa" by Guy Martin.

The PLA Navy is sending its frigate CNS Xuchang to participate in the annual Navy Festival in Simons Town, South Africa, from 4-6 October.  The PLA Navy hospital ship, Peace Ark, made a weeklong visit to Cape Town in August.

The Navy Festival will be followed from 7-16 October by Exercise IBSAMAR, which involves naval vessels from South Africa, India, and Brazil off the Western Cape.  Exercise IBSAMAR debuted in 2008 as an alliance of three countries with democratic values, commercial interests, and maritime cooperation.  India is sending the stealth frigate INS Talwar to Exercise IBSAMAR.

Comment:  The juxtaposition of PLA and Indian naval vessels in South Africa one after the other underscores the naval competition between India and China in the Indian Ocean.  

Russia-South Africa Relations: It's Complicated

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published on 19 September 2024 a commentary titled "Can Old Alliances Survive New Realities in Russia-South Africa Relations?" by Gustavo de Carvalho and Xiang Chen.  

Historically close ties between the Soviet Union and the anti-apartheid movement (now the government) in South Africa is encountering a younger generation of leaders who are less concerned with this legacy.  As a result, there is strategic ambiguity in South Africa's policy today vis-a-vis Russia.

China-Africa Security Relations

 The latest issue of Security & Defence contains an article titled "China's Security Relations with Africa in the 21st Century" by Monika Magdalena Krukowska.

The article analyses aspects of China's security engagement with African countries with special reference to South Africa, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.  It looks at China's participation in UN peacekeeping operations, small arms exports, and Beijing's sharing of technology.

Washington Post Editorial Urges Biden to Pressure UAE on Sudan

 The Washington Post posted an editorial on 28 September 2024 titled "Biden Needs to Pressure the UAE to Help End Sudan's Civil War."

The UAE is the main backer of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is responsible for some of the worst atrocities in Sudan's civil war.  The editorial calls on the Biden administration to pressure the UAE to end this support for the RSF.

China Steps Up Security Cooperation with Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 29 September 2024 an article titled "China Works to Keep the Peace in East Africa as Security Issues Threaten Investments" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China is increasing its police and military cooperation with African countries in an effort to improve security.  Part of the rationale for this cooperation is to help protect China's interests in Africa and its personnel living and working there.  

US Navy Ships Intercept Barrage of Houthi Missiles and Drones in Red Sea

 Stars & Stripes published on 27 September 2024 an article titled "Navy Ships Shoot Down 'Complex' Barrage of Houthi Missiles and Drones in Red Sea, Pentagon Says" by Caitlyn Burchett.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen aimed a barrage of missiles and drones, apparently at a US Navy carrier strike group transiting the Red Sea.  Although the Houthis claimed to have scored some hits, the US Navy said none of its ships were struck

Suggestions for Canada's Engagement in Africa in Shadow of China

 Canada's Institute for Research on Public Policy published on its digital Policy Options platform on 26 September 2024 a commentary titled "As China Courts Africa, Canada Must Rethink Its Africa Strategy" by Isaac Odoom, Carleton University.  

The expansion of China's engagement in Africa poses a challenge for Canada to find a path to work with Africa in a meaningful way.  The author says Canada should offer something distinct from Western paternalism and China's transactional partnerships.  He suggests that Canada leverage its African diaspora, capitalize on strength in green energy and digital innovation, invest in training African youth, and promote good governance.  

Turkey's Rising Influence in the Horn of Africa

 The UAE-based Future for Advanced Research & Studies published on 16 September 2024 an analysis titled "Analyzing the Challenges in Turkey's Rising Influence in the Horn of Africa" by Iman Al-Shaarawy.  

In efforts to increase its influence in the Horn of Africa, Turkey has signed defense cooperation agreements, acted as a mediator in regional disputes, and invested in the energy and oil sectors.  However, its engagement raises important questions about the extent and limitations of Turkey's role, its underlying motives, and Ankara's capacity to fulfill these commitments in the face of numerous regional and international challenges.

How the US Can Compete with China in Africa

 Foreign Policy published on 25 September 2024 an analysis titled "The U.S. Has a Better Offer for Africa than Debt" by Henry Tugendhat.  

The author argues that the United States should not even try to compete with China on the amount of loans it offers to the continent. Rather, it should expand popular trade agreements such as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act or the Generalized System of Preferences.  

Cold War Lessons for Current US Africa Policy

 War on the Rocks published on 26 September 2024 an analysis titled "Be Kennedy, Not Kissinger: What Cold War Competition in Guinea and Angola Can Teach Us about U.S. Influence in Western Africa" by Nathan Heath, National Security Innovations, Inc. 

Drawing on U.S. Cold War policy, the author argues that the Kennedy administration followed a successful strategy in Guinea while Henry Kissinger pursued an unsuccessful one in Angola.

His lessons for U.S. policy in Africa today are the importance of high-level personal engagement, the need to seize openings when adversaries make mistakes, a coherent strategy, and drawing on help from countries with regional influence.  

Somalia Condemns Ethiopian Shipment of Weapons to Puntland

 Foreign Policy published on 25 September 2024 an article titled "Somalia-Ethiopia Tensions Mount" by Nosmot Gbadamosi. 

The transfer of arms from Egypt to Somalia followed by a shipment of arms from Ethiopia to Puntland have further inflamed tension in the region.  Somalia has also asked the African Union to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers in the country with 5,000 Egyptian peacekeepers.  The assignment of Egyptian peacekeepers near the border with Ethiopia would further inflame the situation.  

Rising Somalia-Ethiopia Tensions

 Agence France Presse published on 26 September 2024 an article titled "Rising Somalia-Ethiopia Tensions Threaten Horn of Africa."

Egypt delivered this week a second shipment of arms to Somalia, causing Ethiopia to increase its concern about the Somali-Egyptian relationship. Ethiopian troops remain in Somalia as part of the African Union force to combat al-Shabaab.  If Ethiopia continues with plans to establish a naval base on the coast of Somaliland, Somalia will almost certainly demand that it withdraw its forces from the country, possibly leaving a vacuum for al-Shabaab to fill.

Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia

 The Atlantic Council published on 19 September 2024 an analysis titled "Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia" by Shahira Amin.

In August, Egypt sent two C-130 planes with weapons and ammunition to Mogadishu to improve relations with Somalia and send a message to Ethiopia.  Egypt has long opposed Addis Ababa's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  It grew increasingly concerned following Ethiopia's memorandum of understanding with Somaliland that includes a possible Ethiopian naval base on the Somaliland coast.