Ethiopia Will Defend Somaliland

Speaking before the Ethiopian parliament on 18 May 2013, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said "We will spare no expense to defend and protect Somaliland."  The Prime Minister's unusually strong assurances seem to have been covered in most detail in a 19 May report in the Ethiopian Review titled "Breaking News: 'We Will Defend Somaliland,' Ethiopian PM Hailemariam Desalegn."  Tigraionline ran a briefer account of the prime minister's remarks titled "Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn Says We Will Defend Somaliland." 

African Civil Society Organizations Call for Action on Eritrea

Forty African civil society and human rights organizations petitioned the African Union (AU) on 21 May 2013 to address the human rights situation in Eritrea.  In a statement titled "African Civil Society Call for Action on Human Rights Situation in Eritrea," the organizations asked the AU and its member states to:

--Encourage Eritrea to ensure the effective implementation of the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights concerning Eritrea;
--Support the renewal of the mandate of the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Eritrea at the Human Rights Council in June 2013; and
--Ensure the protection of Eritrean refugees.

Continuing Conflict in Jonglei, South Sudan

The Refugees International blog site has two recent postings concerning ongoing conflict in Jonglei State of South Sudan precipitated by fighting between the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and the rebel group led by David Yau Yau.  The first commentary by Caelin Briggs on 14 May 2013 is titled "South Sudan Army Commits Atrocities in Jonglei as Aid Workers Flee."  The second one is by Dara McLeod dated 20 May 2013 and titled "S.Sudan Army Causing Atrocities, Humanitarian Emergency in Pibor." 

Somalia: Another Somali Commentary on Jubaland

Former Somali diplomat Abukar Arman offered on 19 May 2013 a highly cautionary view on Jubaland titled "Somalia and the Slippery Slope of Jubbaland."  Writing for Eurasia Review, he said that all options currently on the table are considered zero sum by one group or another and argued that something must change before things fall apart beyond repair. 

For other positions by Somali commentators on the formation of Jubaland, see postings below on 19 May by Abdighani Hirad and on 16 May by Mohamud M. Uluso. 

Somalia: Centralism, Federalism and Jubaland

The creation of the State of Jubaland within the Federal Republic of Somalia has resulted in Somali analysis, sometimes heated, pro and con.  See the negative posting below for 16 May by Muhamud M. Uluso on the subject.  Abdighani Hirad offered his positive views on 17 May 2013 in a piece titled "Jubaland State of Somalia: A Model State to Somalia." 

So long as this debate remains civil and peaceful and is undertaken by Somalis, who must live with the results, it is a good thing. 

Oil and Gas Development in East Africa and the Horn

LSI Solutions  published on 18 May 2013 an analysis of the oil and gas situation in East Africa and the Horn titled "The Rise of East African Hydrocarbons."  Written by Eray Basar, it notes that oil and gas discoveries in East Africa have made the region a top priority for exploration and development.  Mozambique could potentially surpass Algeria as the world's six largest natural gas exporter.  Other countries covered in the analysis include Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

Review of Our China and Africa Book

Adam Clayton Powell III, director of Washington Policy Initiatives for the University of Southern California, reviewed our book, China and Africa: A Century of Engagement, in the April 2013 edition of American Diplomacy.

Ethiopia Public Health Forum in Washington

The Ethiopian Global Initiative is hosting in Washington on 1 June 2013 an Ethiopia Public Health Forum.  This free event will take place from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. in the Kenney Auditorium of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies at 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.  The keynote speaker is Ethiopian Minister of Health Dr. Kesetebirhan Admasu.  

African Wellness Event in Washington

The District of Columbia Office on African Affairs is hosting a African Wellness Fete on 1 June 2013 from 12:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. at the Brightwood Education Campus (1300 Nichloson St., N.W.).  The goals of the event are to motivate positive health behavior within the African community and increase awareness of local health services and resources.  The event is free.

Ethiopia-Somalia Relations

The Inter Press Service News Agency published on 17 May 2013 a good update on the status of Ethiopian relations with neighboring Somalia.  Titled "Ethiopia Playing at Being Good Neighbors," the author is William Lloyd-George. 

Sudan Studies Association Annual Meeting

The Sudan Studies Association will hold its annual conference at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia on 24-26 May 2013.  The complete program for the event is now a available. 

Somalia: Federalism versus Central Control

The issue of federalism versus central control as a future governing structure for Somalia has resulted in heated debate among Somalis since the collapse of the Siad Barre government.  Writing for Pampazuka News on 16 May 2013, Mohamud M. Uluso addresses this subject in a piece titled "Somalia: IHS Jane's Spin on Jubbaland Trap." 

Kenya After the Elections

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 15 May 2013 a policy briefing titled "Kenya After the Elections."  Jubilee Coalition's Uhuru Kenyatta won 50.07 per cent of the vote in the 4 March 2013 elections.  It was just enough to pass the threshold for a first round victory.

The ICG argues that President Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, will have to restore confidence in the electoral process and show robust commitment to the implementation of the new constitution, in particular to political devolution, land reform, the fight against corruption and national reconciliation.  The focus will need to be on implementing the constitution, ensuring the smooth transition to devolved government and bringing justice to the victims of the 2007-2008 post-election violence.

With the first election under the 2010 constitution complete, Kenyans now anticipate the full force of reforms that aim to redress grievances against centralized governance and uneven economic development.  Through devolved government, the 47 newly created counties, with their own elected governors and assemblies, will seek to tackle socio-economic inequalities.  ICG believes, however, that faith in the central government's will and capacity to implement reforms has been weakened by the failures in the reformed electoral machinery. 

US, China and Africa: Trilateral Dialogue

The Washington-based think tank, Brookings, hosted on 13 May 2013 an all day conference titled "The U.S., China and Africa: Pursuing Trilateral Dialogue and Action."  You can hear a two hour podcast of the public session that included remarks by Ebrahim Rasool, South African ambassador to the U.S., Donald Teitelbaum, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs and Yang Guang, Director-General, Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).  Witney Schneidman of Brookings then moderated a panel discussion with Patricia Aidam, research fellow at the University of Ghana, Yun Sun, Brookings, and He Wenping, director of the African Studies Section at CASS. 

Africa Progress Report 2013

The Africa Progress Panel (APP) chaired by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan just released the 2013 edition of the 120 page Africa Progress Report 2013 in English and French.  The focus is on equity in extractives: stewarding Africa's natural resources for all. 

The ten-member APP also includes Michel Camdessus, Peter Eigen, Bob Geldof, Graca Machel, Strive Masiyiwa, Olusegun Obasanjo, Linah Mohohlo, Robert Rubin and Tidjane Thiam.  

Europe and Africa from a Polish Perspective

The Central and Eastern Europe Development (CEED) Institute in cooperation with the Polish Centre for African Studies just published a major study titled "Africa-Europe on the Global Chessboard: The New Opening."

The objectives of the study are threefold.  First, it seeks to critically discuss major economic, political and social trends in Sub-Saharan Africa.  Second, it examines an on-going shift in Africa's international relations with the outside world where Europe's clout is waning and South-South cooperation is on the rise.  Third, it seeks to better understand the business and political practices of developing countries in Africa and provide food for thought to the European Union, whose business presence in Africa has been alarmingly limited.

Sudan Studies Association Bulletin

The Spring 2013 issue of the Sudan Studies Association Bulletin is available online.  It contains articles by Gabriel Warburg on "South Sudan Reconsidered: 1899-2012," Christopher Zambaraki on "The Role of Women in the Nation and State Building Projects in South Sudan," and Richard Lobban on "Sudan: A Cartographic History."

Somali Diaspora Comments on Country's Future

Chatham House in London hosted on 18 April 2013 a consultation with 35 members of the largely UK-based Somali diaspora to facilitate an exchange of thoughts and encourage open debate around issues affecting the future of Somalia's state and governance structures.  The meeting addressed regional autonomy, decentralization and federalism. 

Chatham House published a summary of the deliberations under the title "Somalia's Future: Building a Unified Regional State."

Somalia, Somaliland and the Future

Edward Paice, director of the Africa Research Institute, an independent, non-partisan think tank in London, recently posted two commentaries on the future of Somalia and Somaliland.  One dated 8 May 2013 is titled "Negotiating Peace in Somalia--An Insight from Somaliland" and the other dated 9 May 2013 is titled "Why Elections Matter in Somaliland." 

Child Survival in East Africa and the Horn

Save the Children released in May 2013 a 88 page report titled "Surviving the First Day: State of the World's Mothers 2013." Pages 27-28 contain a summary of the situation in sub-Saharan Africa and pages 31-35 have the global birth day risk index.

Sub-Saharan Africa is by far the riskiest region to be born.  The 14 countries with the highest first-day risk rates are in sub-Saharan Africa.  As a region, sub-Saharan Africa's first-day mortality rate is 12 per 1,000 live births.  Poor health among African mothers contributes to high rates of first-day death for babies.  Serious maternal undernutrition is common in the region, where 10-20 percent of women are underweight.  Especially large numbers of underweight mothers are found in Ethiopia (24 percent), Madagascar (28 percent) and Eritrea (38 percent). 

Across the region, less than 16 percent of women use a modern method of contraception.  Contraceptive use is lowest in Somalia (1 percent) and Chad (2 percent).  Mothers in Malawi, Mali, Somalia and Zambia have six children on average.  Niger has the highest fertility rate in the world at nearly seven children per woman. 

On average, only half the women in the region received skilled health care during birth.  In Ethiopia, Niger and South Sudan, more than half of all women receive absolutely no skilled prenatal care.  The most severe shortages of health workers are found in Guinea, Niger, Sierra Leone and Somalia, where there are fewer than two skilled health workers for every 10,000 people.

The lowest ranked country globally for first-day mortality rate per 1,000 live births is Somalia at 18 followed by the DRC, Mali, and Sierra Leone at 17, Central African Republic at 16, Angola, Cote d'Ivoire, Chad, Burundi and Guinea-Bissau at 15. 

Other countries in East Africa and the Horn ranked as follows.  Djibouti had a first-day mortality rate of 12 per 1,000 live births.  Ethiopia and Sudan had 11.  Uganda had 10.  Tanzania and Kenya had 9 and Eritrea had 8.

China-India Rivalry in the Indian Ocean

Sunset over the Indian Ocean. Flickr/NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center

The Associated Press released an article by Lousie Watt on 8 May 2013 titled "China and India's Rivalry Extends to the Arctic." The article includes my comments on China-India rivalry in the western Indian Ocean. 

Somalia Conference 2013 in London

Somalia and the United Kingdom hosted a conference on Somalia in London on 7 May 2013.  The participants released a comprehensive communique at the end of the conference. 

While the conference was another positive step forward, what is important now for the Somali Federal Government is to spend more time building political support and federalism inside Somalia and less time at international conferences and travel to foreign capitals. 

Update on Somali Famine 2010-2012

Famine in Somalia. Flickr/United Nations

A new study estimates that famine and severe food insecurity in Somalia claimed the lives of about 258,000 people between October 2010 and April 2012, including 133,000 children under five.  The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia and the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) commissioned the study.

A two page summary of the study said a combination of events triggered the famine.  First, the eastern Horn of Africa experienced the driest period in 60 years.  Second, donors delivered a low amount of humanitarian aid in southern Somalia in 2010 and much of 2011.  In many areas, conflict and insecurity impeded humanitarian aid and access.  You can access the complete 87 page report titled "Mortality among populations of southern and central Somalia affected by severe food insecurity and famine during 2010-2012" by following the link in the summary. 

Comment on Somalia-Somaliland Dialogue

Yusuf M. Hasan of the Somaliland Sun asked me to comment on a series of questions dealing with the ongoing dialogue between Somalia and Somaliland.  The Somaliland Sun published the interview on 5 May 2013 under the heading "Somaliland: 'The Ankara Communique Is a Commitment for Continued Dialogue' Amb. Shinn." 

Interview with Somaliland Sun

Mahmud Walaleye of the Somaliland Sun asked me to respond to several questions concerning Somaliland.  The interview appeared in the 3 May 2013 edition under the title "Somaliland: Country Urged to Capitalize on the Flexibility of the UK and Danish Governments."