The South China Morning Post published on 22 June 2025 an article titled "Routine or Rising Tensions? Chinese Ambassadors in Exodus from West African Nations" by Jevans Nyabiage.
Chinese ambassadors in Senegal, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger returned to Beijing at about the same time. It raises the question whether their return was coincidental or is intended to send some kind of subtle message to the region.
The South China Morning Post published on 16 May 2025 an article titled "Chinese Defence Firm Strikes Arms Deal with Nigeria, Deepening Ties with West Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.
A Chinese company, most likely Norinco, recently signed a deal with Nigeria for producing ammunition domestically. Norinco has been expanding its arms sales across Africa, taking advantage of Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine and a Western pull back from Africa.
The Associated Press published on 1 March 2025 an article titled "USAID Cuts Are Already Hitting Countries Around the World. Here Are 20 Projects that Have Closed" by Sam Mednick, Wilson McMakin, and Monika Pronczuk.
USAID terminated some 10,000 contracts on 26 February with non-governmental organizations around the world. This article lists 20 projects--half of them in Africa--that have closed already.
The Conversation published on 10 February 2025 a commentary titled "Power Vacuum in West Africa's Sahel: 3 Ways China Could Fill the Gap as West Exits" by Abdul-Gafar Tobi Oshodi, Lagos State University.
As France and the United States pull back or are forced out of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Senegal, and Cote d'Ivoire, Beijing could take advantage by expanding investment in critical minerals, resolving the internal crisis in ECOWAS, and increasing arms sales in the region.
The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 September 2024 a paper titled "The Complex Trends and Patterns in Arms Transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa" by Pieter Wezeman, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The 6 largest arms importers in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2019-23 were Nigeria, Angola, Senegal, Mali, Uganda, and Ethiopia. The major arms suppliers during this period were China (19 percent), Russia (17 percent), and France (11 percent). Imports of arms by countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have been declining in recent years.
World Politics Review published on 30 April 2024 a commentary titled "Geopolitical Competition Is Reshaping West Africa" by Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, Nigerian researcher.
As France and the United States lose influence and pull troops from Africa's Sahel region, several of these countries are pivoting increasingly to Russia and its Africa Corps for security assistance.
Comment: The biggest security threat in the region remains that from ISIS and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. So far, Russia's security commitments to the region are too small to have any significant impact on countering jihadi organizations. While Russia is gaining influence in the Sahel, it may soon find that it is not able to stem jihadi activity, leaving these governments in a more difficult position than previously.
Gallup published on 26 April 2024 an article titled "U.S. Loses Soft Power Edge in Africa" by Benedict Vigers.
Gallup just published the results for 2023 of approval ratings in 36 of Africa's 54 countries on leadership in the United States, China, Russia, and Germany. In 2023, China nudged ahead of the United States by two points compared with 2022. Both the United States and China remained well ahead of Russia, which did restore its position following a drop in the aftermath of its attack on Ukraine.
The view of U.S. leadership improved significantly in Ghana, Mauritania, Cote d'Ivoire, and Tunisia but declined sharply in Kenya, Gambia, and Uganda. China's position was much stronger in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Guinea, but fell sharply in Gambia and Uganda. The approval rating for the United States, China, and Russia is down significantly from where it was in 2011.
The Ghana-based Africa-China Centre for Policy & Advisory published in April 2024 a commentary titled "The Year of African Elections & Why China Should Not Lose Sight" by Hagan Sibiri.
In 2024, 25 African countries are scheduled for presidential, general, or local elections; 19 are presidential or general. The author warns that Chinese policymakers should not overlook growing dynamics in African domestic politics and the potential ramifications of African elections on future interaction with China.
Any perception held by Chinese policymakers that Africa constitutes a relatively cohesive coalition in its partnership with China should be reevaluated as it risks overlooking the growing concerns toward Chinese partnerships in numerous African countries. Given the rising manifestation of anti-Chinese sentiment across Africa, the outcomes of African elections should interest Chinese policymakers in terms of how they may shape China's relations with the continent moving forward.
Megatrends Afrika published in February 2024 a study titled "Climate Collaboration in Multipolar Times: The European Union and China as Energy Transition Partners to African Countries" by Cobus van Staden.
The study concludes that China is increasingly promoting its own environmental, social, and governance norms while trying to reshape the global regulatory environment to be friendlier towards Chinese companies. China's strongest tool in Africa remains less about any direct challenge to European influence, and more about its legacy as an alternative set of options that fractures Euro-American hegemony in African development. A more fundamental challenge for the EU is how willing it is to adapt its African engagement to growing global multipolarity.
Visual Capitalist published on 11 December 2023 a graphic titled "Developing Countries Receiving the Most Loans from China" by Marcus Lu, Bruno Venditti, and Bhabna Banerjee.
Fourteen of the fifteen Most Highly Indebted Countries (HIPC) with the largest amount of loans from China are in Africa. In order of most loans from China, the countries are Ghana, Guinea, Ethiopia, Tanzania, DRC, Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Sudan, Zambia, Bolivia, Chad, Senegal, Niger, Mali, and Cameroon.
Comment: This list of countries is receiving pushback in some quarters, citing the fact that Angola, which has more Chinese loans than any other African country, is absent from the list and the loan figure for Ghana appears to be excessively high. While the amount of money China has loaned to Ghana does look to be much too high, Angola is excluded because it is NOT a highly indebted poor country. It is oil rich and, so far, has been able to repay its loans.
The Diplomat published on 3 November 2023 a commentary titled "What Did the 3rd Belt and Road Forum Mean for Africa?" by Trevor Lwere, research consultant at Beijing-based Development Reimagined.
The author concluded that the 3rd Belt and Road Forum held in Beijing last month had three important outcomes for Africa. First, loan money will keep flowing but will become more targeted and green. Second, small and medium sized enterprises will be prioritized. Third, China agreed to fund several new infrastructure projects in Africa.
Comment: The author is putting the best possible face on China's new "smaller but smarter" approach to lending in Africa. The fact is that Chinese loans to Africa dropped from a peak of $28 billion in 2016 to about $1 billion in each of the last two years.
The Centre for International Governance Innovation published in October 2023 a study titled "Navigating Africa's Digital Partnerships in a Context of Global Rivalry" by Folashade Soule.
The study highlights how African governments are choosing their digital partners. Africa's choice of China as its preferred partner for digital infrastructure has more to do with China offering a suitable mix of financial and technological value and the lack of viable Western alternatives, than geopolitics.
The U.S. Naval War College posted early in 2023 a 48 minute podcast titled "Maritime Competition in African Waters" with Captain Kamal-Deen Ali (Ghana Navy retired) and questions by Isaac Kardon, U.S. Naval War College, and Naunihal Singh, National War College.
Captain Ali responded to a wide range of questions related to maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, including illegal fishing, piracy, food security, mining, and great power competition. He demonstrated a thorough understanding of all these issues.
Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in September 2023 a policy brief titled "A New State of Lending: Chinese Loans to Africa" by Oyintarelado Moses, Jyhjong Hwang, Lucas Engel, and Victoria Yvonne Bien-Aime.
China has significantly decreased its lending to Africa. In 2021, it signed seven loans with African countries totaling $1.22 billion and in 2022 nine loans amounting to $994 million. This compares with $28 billion signed in 2016. The decline is due to debt issues in Africa and Chinese domestic, global, and regional priorities. The Export-Import Bank of China continues to be the top Chinese lender in Africa.
Although the African energy sector has historically received the most Chinese loans, there were no sovereign loans for energy projects in 2021 and 2022. Senegal, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Angola, Uganda, Ghana, Rwanda, and the DRC were the largest borrowers in 2021-2022.
Doublethink Lab and the China in the World network have published a cross-regional ranking to measure China's overseas influence through comparable data titled "China Index 2022: Measuring PRC Influence Around the Globe." It looks at 82 countries, including 11 in Africa, evaluating the following 9 domains: academia, domestic politics, economy, foreign policy, law enforcement, media, military, society, and technology.
The African country ranked as having the highest amount of Chinese influence was South Africa, tied with Peru for position number 5. Other African countries had the following rankings: Nigeria (14), Egypt (17), Tanzania (18), Ghana (20), Kenya (22), Zambia (46), Sierra Leone (47), Gambia (50), Ethiopia (56), and Senegal (74). By comparison, the United States ranked number 21.
The South China Morning Post published on 21 August 2023 an article titled "Chinese Weapons Supplier Norinco Expands Influence in West Africa, Challenging Russia and France" by Jevans Nyabiage.
Chinese arms manufacturer Norinco is expanding operations in Africa by locating a sales office in Senegal. China is working hard to increase both the quantity and sophistication of its arms sales to Africa, increasingly at the expense of Russia and China.
The Washington Post published on 21 June 2023 an article titled "African Leaders Visited with a Peace Plan, Putin Showed Little Interest" by Robyn Dixon.
African leaders led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa presented a 10-point peace plan for ending the conflict in Ukraine to Presidents Putin and Zelensky. The delegation received little encouragement from either president but reportedly interpreted Putin's response as a huge snub.
The South China Morning Post published on 30 April 2023 an article titled "China Donates Patrol Boat to Sierra Leone to Tackle Illegal Fishing and Piracy off West Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.
China donated a patrol boat to Sierra Leone to deal with illegal fishing. This is part of a pattern of donations to countries in West Africa to combat both piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and illegal fishing in offshore waters. Much of the legal and illegal fishing is attributed to China's distant-water fishing fleet.
World Politics Review published on 17 March 2023 a commentary titled "With the Tigray War Over, the U.S. Moves to Mend Ties with Ethiopia" by Chris Olaoluwa Ogunmodede.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Ethiopia and Niger to reset relations with a key country in the Horn of Africa and solidify relations with an ally in the Sahel. The author argues that U.S. policy appears to be motivated by a desire to counter China and Russia in Africa.
Forbes published on 13 March 2023 an article titled "Energy Diplomacy Isn't Helping Russia in Africa" by Ariel Cohen, Atlantic Council.
African states mostly benefit from sanctions on Russia because of higher commodity prices for energy and fewer competitors. There has been an expansion of African energy exports to European Union countries.
