China-Africa Trade First Half 2026

 Thierry Pairault just posted a paper titled "The Tariff Exemption Saga and the Results for the First Half of 2026."

China's zero tariff policy for all countries in Africa except Eswatini took effect on 1 May.  During the first half of 2026 Africa's trade deficit with China widened from $44.7 billion to $57.9 billion as of the end of the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025.  Chinese exports to Africa rose by 21.8 percent and imports from Africa by 16.3 percent compared with the same period in 2025.

Eight African countries (South Africa, DRC, Zambia, South Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Algeria, and Zimbabwe) accounted for about 94 percent of the increase in Chinese imports from Africa during this period.  Almost the entire increase in the value of African exports to China was due to the shock in world commodity prices, largely independent of the zero-tariff policy.  

China's New Gold Strategy Runs Through Africa

 TrendsNAfrica published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "China's New Gold Strategy Runs Through Africa:  How Beijing Is Rewriting the Global Bullion Market."

Beijing is quietly reshaping the mechanics of the international gold trade.  Its strategy involves dismantling speculative domestic paper-gold trading while building an international ecosystem centered on physical bullion, yuan-based settlements, and African mineral wealth.

About 40 percent of the world's remaining underground gold reserves are located in Africa.  China is reducing its holdings of US Treasury securities and replacing them with gold purchases, especially in Africa.  

Zimbabwe Shuts Down Chinese Lithium Company for Fraud

 Discovery Alert published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "San Ding Lithium Shutdown: Zimbabwe's $3.65M Mining Fraud Exposed" by Muflih Hidayat.  

Zimbabwe holds Africa's largest lithium reserves and Chinese companies have invested more than $2 billion in the lithium sector.  China's San Ding Lithium operated through the fabrication of receipts and invoices to disguise fund diversions.  Zimbabwe charged two San Ding Lithium officials with two charges of fraud and shut down the company.

Zambia's Reasons for Cancelling Major Human Rights Summit

 Just Security published on 2 June 2026 a commentary titled "In Addition to Chinese Pressure, a Backsliding Democracy May Explain Zambia's Decision to Cancel a Major Human Rights Summit" by Jane Munga and Steve Feldstein.

Days before 2,600 human rights defenders, technologists, and policymakers were expected in Lusaka, Zambia, on April 30, the Zambian government called off RightsCon, the world's largest conference on digital rights.  

According to the summit organizers, the cancellation was due to foreign interference from China "because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person."  But a closer look reveals a more complicated picture linked to Zambia's democratic decline and more repressive policies.  

Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in June 2026 a paper titled "Development Quid Pro Quo: Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa" by Congyi Dai.

The paper explores whether China's development finance agenda is motivated by its global quest for natural resources, facilitating mine acquisitions in Africa.  It uses four data sources to examine whether Chinese development finance is tied to the pursuit of critical minerals.

The paper concludes that minerals needed for clean energy technologies such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and platinum group metals are associated with Chinese loan commitments to recipient countries.  Specifically, uranium is the mineral most strongly linked to Chinese development projects, particularly those including a substantial grant component and highly concessional repayment terms.

China, US, EU Competition for Critical Minerals in Africa and Latin America

Modern Diplomacy published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Geology Meets Geopolitics: The Global Race for Critical Minerals in the Climate Transition" by Marta Rehnman, Trinity College Dublin.

China dominates the processing of critical minerals in Africa and Latin America.  Beijing has mining partnerships with 44 African countries.  But the United States and European Union are stepping up competition for unexploited mineral reserves in both Africa and Latin America.  

How African Countries Can Get Better Value from Chinese-Supported Power Projects

 Energy for Growth Hub published on 18 May 2026 an article titled "Four Ways African Countries Can Secure Better Outcomes from Chinese-supported Power Projects" by Naa Adjekai Adjei.

Ghana's experience with Chinese-supported power projects demonstrates that it is possible to achieve better results with cost benchmarking, competitive procurement, stronger finance negotiation, and project oversight expertise.

Likely Impact of China's Zero Tariff Policy on African Imports (in French)

 GeopoWeb posted on 18 May 2026 an analysis titled "Africa, China, and Zero Tariffs: A Diplomatic Gesture Put to the Test by the Data" by Thierry Pairault.  

Effective on May 1, China began a policy of zero tariffs on imports from all African countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  Six African countries (South Africa, DRC, Angola, Guinea, Zambia, and Congo Brazzaville) now supply three quarters of China's imports from Africa.  Most of these imports consist of minerals, metals, and crude oil, which already enter China duty free.

A modest quantity of African agricultural products will benefit from the zero-tariff policy.  Landlocked African countries, which tend to be among the poorest, will receive little or no benefit from the zero-tariff policy because of transportation constraints.  In addition, non-tariff barriers such as sanitary standards remain in effect.  Thierry identifies several other barriers to increased African exports to China that will limit the impact of the zero-tariff policy.  He also compares the impact of EU and Chinese imports from Africa.

Thierry concludes the zero-tariff policy has less to do with rebalancing trade between China and Africa than it is an effective diplomatic tool at little cost to China but also limited in its economic impact.  

Mozambique Considers Converting Dollar Debt for Chinese Yuan

 Bloomberg published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "Mozambique Weighs Swapping Dollar Debt for Yuan in China Talks" by Tavares Cebola.

Mozambique is considering converting the $1.4 billion it owes China into yuan loans as part of a debt restructuring with its biggest bilateral creditor.  

How Russia Lures Africans to Fight in Ukraine

 The New York Times published on 4 May 2026 an article titled "'The Death Zone': How Russia Is Luring Africans to Ukraine" by Matthew Mpoke Bigg, John Eligon, and Zimasa Matiwane.

An estimated 1,000 Kenyans went to Russia and ended up in the war against Ukraine.  Only 30 have returned to Kenya alive.  In addition, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Botswana, Mali, and Cameroon have reported men being falsely recruited into the Russian army.  

Taiwan's President Finally Makes It to Eswatini

 The Associated Press published on 2 May 2026 an article titled "Taiwan's President Lands in Eswatini, under China's Shadow."

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te finally made it to Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taipei, on 2 May.  He had to reschedule his original visit when three African countries, reportedly under pressure from Beijing, cancelled overflight permission for his aircraft.  

China's Role in Cancellation of International Conference in Zambia

 Skift, a digital media company and travel website, posted on 1 May 2026 an article titled "China Quietly Cancels a Digital Rights Summit in Africa" by Miguel Neves.  

Evidence is mounting that Beijing was behind Zambia's decision to cancel at the last minute RightsCon 2026 involving an estimated 2,000 international participants from over 150 countries.  RightsCon bills itself as the "world's leading summit on human rights in the digital age."

Beijing's concern was apparently attendance by civil society representatives from Taiwan.  The conference was scheduled to be held at the Mulungushi International Conference Center in Lusaka.  China granted Zambia $30 million in 2022 to expand the facility, giving it considerable leverage to influence the cancellation of the summit by the government of Zambia.  

Zambia Censors International Conference on Censorship: China's Influence?

 The Zambian Observer published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "President Hichilema Cancels World's Largest Digital Rights Conference."

Zambia cancelled at the last minute the world's largest conference (2,000 delegates) on human rights in the digital age organized by Access Now, RightsCon scheduled for May 5-8 in Lusaka.  A Zambian official said the "postponement" of the conference was "essential to ensure full alignment with Zambia's national values, policy priorities, and broader public interest considerations."

News Diggers published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Govt Cancels RightsCon Summit Citing Security Concerns on Some Delegates" by Mwenya Mofya.

In 2025, the conference took place in Taiwan.  The News Diggers account reported that the conference was cancelled because the program included Taiwanese delegates who could potentially speak ill of China at a venue donated by the Chinese government.  

China Steps Up Aid to Africa but It Falls Well Short of Filling Gap Left by US

 The South China Morning Post published on 19 April 2026 an article titled "China Steps Up Aid to Africa but Huge Funding Gap Left by Trump's Cuts Remains" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Large cuts in aid to Africa by the Trump administration (and other donors) have left major gaps in funding of essential programs.  China has increased its health diplomacy and donations of food aid but has hardly made a dent in the gap left by Washington and several other donor countries.  

Competing Transport Corridors for Africa's Critical Minerals

 Africa at LSE published on 15 April 2026 a paper titled "Critical Mineral Transport Infrastructure Is the Latest Theater of Geopolitical Competition in Africa" by Stephen Nduvi.  

Rehabilitation of the Chinese-funded Tanzania-Zambia railway is competing with the Western-funded Lobito Corridor (Angola, DRC and Zambia) infrastructure project to transport critical minerals to ports on the Atlantic or Indian Oceans.  The big challenge for African countries is converting corridor competition into sustainable development outcomes.

Great Power Competition for DRC Critical Minerals

 Bankable posted on 7 April 2026 a commentary titled "Zijin, CMOC Back Competing Alternative to Lobito Corridor" by Pierre Mukoko.

China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and four Chinese companies are financing a $1.4 billion project to rehabilitate the Tanzania-Zambia railway that will transport critical minerals from the DRC to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam.

The Tanzania-Zambia railway will compete with the American and European Lobito Corridor project that will transport critical minerals from the DRC to an Atlantic Ocean port in Angola.  

Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Africa Leave No Role for Local Urban Planners

 The Conversation published on 30 March 2026 a commentary titled "China Is Helping Build Africa's Cities, but Its Approach Sidelines Local Urban Planners and Residents" by Ding Fei, Cornell University.

Chinese-financed infrastructure projects are transforming skylines and daily life across Africa.  While China delivers an impressive volume of infrastructure, it risks reinforcing Africa's national government dominance in decision-making on urban infrastructure development.  African local governments and residents are excluded from the project planning and negotiating process.  

Impact of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 March 2026 an analysis titled "Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and Market Capture in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

China has the largest state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector in the world, accounting for about 20 percent of China's GDP.  African economic sectors such as mining, railways, and power generation can become dominated by large Chinese SOEs.  They can then out compete African companies and other investors, create supply chain dependence on Chinese firms, and reduce the bargaining power of African governments.  

Chinese Artificial Intelligence Surveillance in 11 African Countries

 The Institute of Development Studies published in March 2026 a major study titled "Smart City Surveillance in Africa: Mapping Chinese AI Surveillance Across 11 Countries" edited by Wairagala Wakabi and Tony Roberts.

The report provides a comprehensive account of smart city surveillance in Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  China is by far the largest supplier of AI surveillance technologies to African governments, including to all 11 covered in this study.  

The rapid expansion of smart city surveillance is having a chilling effect on ordinary citizens and journalists.  The scale and invasive nature of mass surveillance is often not legal, necessary, or proportionate.  There is little evidence that the expansion of digital surveillance reduces overall crime.

Africa's New Approach to Critical Minerals: Implications for China and the West

 Skillings Mining Review published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "The Indaba 2026 Legacy: Inside the New African Critical Minerals Framework" by Charles Pitts.

The most recent Cape Town conference on mining (Indaba 2026) demonstrated that three major African sources of critical minerals (DRC, Zambia, and South Africa) acted in a coordinated way to ensure that its raw mineral wealth is not just exported but more of it is refined in Africa for value added benefits.  For example, the DRC produces about 70 percent of the world's cobalt but now refines less than 10 percent of it.  The DRC intends to change that ratio.

The West's Lobito Corridor project for Angola, Zambia, and the DRC fits this new African narrative reasonably well, China's focus on importing raw material not so much.