China's Effort to Replace the Western-led Liberal International Order

 The Pacific Review published in December 2023 a study titled "China's 'Do-as-I-Do' Paradigm: Practice-based Normative Diplomacy in the Global South" by Jeremy Garlick, Prague University of Economics and Business, and Fangxing Qin, Beijing Foreign Studies University.  

This study argues that China expects partner countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America to model their behavior and discourse on the example set by Beijing without significant disagreement.  Countries in the Global South have begun to alter their behavior (e.g. frequent reference to win-win cooperation) along the normative lines expected by Beijing rather than those enshrined in the Western-led liberal international order.  Nevertheless, there is still space for counter initiatives from the West.  

Comparing China's Approach to Africa and Latin America

 The Diplomat published on 21 October 2023 a commentary titled "Comparing China's Engagement in Africa and Latin America" by R. Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Center.  

There are far more commonalities than differences in China's approach to Africa and Latin America, but the differences demonstrate how China adapts its policies to different geographic regions.  

Japanese Prime Minister Visits Africa

 Quartz published on 1 May 2023 an article titled "Japan's Prime Minister Is Visiting Africa in an Attempt to Counter China's Influence" by Diego Lasarte.  

Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is visiting Egypt, Mozambique, Ghana, and Kenya, according to the article, to counter Chinese influence on the continent.   

The Japan Times published on 30 April 2023 an article titled "Kishida Starts African Tour Ahead of G7 Summit."

Although this article mentions the influence of China in Africa, the focus is more on Japan's concerns with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  

China, Africa, and Lithium Production

 Reuters published on 9 February 2023 an article titled "Africa Gears Up to Keep More of the Profits from Lithium Boom" by Clara Denina and Wendell Roelf.

Much of Africa's lithium is headed for China to support the production of batteries for electric vehicles.  These countries are increasingly trying to develop local processing and refining industries to capture more profit rather than export the ore.

Comment:  China has more than half of the world's capacity for refining lithium into specialized battery chemicals.  The largest known reserves of lithium are found in Latin America (Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile).  The United States, Australia, and China also have large reserves.  By comparison, the known reserves in Africa (DRC, Mali, Zimbabwe, Ghana, and Namibia) are modest.  But new reserves are being discovered each year and Africa could become a more important supplier of this highly sought after mineral. 

China's Belt and Road Initiative: Not What It Once Was

 Foreign Affairs published on 7 February 2023 an article titled "China Hasn't Given Up on the Belt and Road" by Matt Schrader and J. Michael Cole, both with the International Republican Institute.  

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure program became an important part of its foreign policy.  Major financing cutbacks are, however, changing the focus of the initiative.  While China is not giving up on it, the BRI has become "a less splashy, less expensive model of engagement predicated on cultivating ties more organically in fields such as trade, telecommunications, green energy, and academia."  The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the lowest funding to African governments since 2004, although the shift in focus of BRI had started even earlier.  

US-China-Russia Security Assistance Competition

 The RAND Corporation has just published a major report titled "Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition."  It looks at the current role of security cooperation as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the US, Russia, and China.  It contains chapters on China and Russia's global security activities.  While Africa does not loom large in the report, there is useful information on security cooperation with the continent.  

US-China Rivalry in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

 Merics published on 24 March 2022 a study titled "Growing US-China Rivalry in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia: Implications for EU" by Matt Ferchen.

The author concluded that of the three regions, Africa has provided the best fit for and been most receptive to China's development focused economic diplomacy.  In part this is because Chinese officials have worked assiduously to build on Mao-era legacies of post-colonial, Third World leadership and solidarity in the region.  

While China's comprehensive commercial and diplomatic presence in Africa has made it an important actor in the region and the United States has deepened its engagement there, Europe's position remains strong. 

How China Lends to Foreign Governments

 AIDDATA, a research lab at William and Mary, published in March 2021 a detailed study titled "How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments" by Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris, Brad Parks, and Christoph Trebesch.

The study provides a systematic analysis of the legal terms of China's foreign lending.  It analyzes 100 contracts between Chinese state-owned entities and government borrowers in 24 developing countries.  Government borrowers in Africa account for 47 percent of the 100 Chinese government contracts.

The major findings are:

1.  Chinese contracts contain unusual confidentiality clauses that bar borrowers from revealing the terms or even the existence of the debt.

2.  Chinese lenders use formal and informal collateral arrangements to maximize their repayment prospects.

3.  Chinese lenders seek advantage over other creditors, using collateral arrangements such as lender-controlled revenue accounts and promises to keep debt out of collective restructuring ("no Paris Club" clauses).

4.  Cancellation, acceleration, and stabilization clauses in Chinese contracts potentially allow the lenders to influence debtors' domestic and foreign policies.  

The authors conclude the contracts use creative design to manage credit risks and overcome enforcement hurdles, presenting China as a muscular and commercially-savvy lender to the developing world.  

China's Security Engagement in Latin America Looking More Like Its Engagement in Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published in November 2020 a paper titled "Chinese Security Engagement in Latin America" by R. Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College.

I am struck by how the themes in this paper mirror the earlier development of China's security engagement with African countries: arms sales, high level military visits, military training in China, military exercises, PLAN port calls, use of private security companies, and police cooperation.  

Africa Constitutes Miniscule Part of China's Mergers and Acquisitions

Ernst and Young posted on 13 February 2020 an article titled "Overview of China Outbound Investment in 2019."

In 2019, the value of China's overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&As) reached almost $69 billion, down 31 percent globally year-on-year, but up 26 percent in Africa. On the other hand, Africa accounted for less than a half billion dollars of the total, by far the smallest amount of any world region. Latin America accounted for more than $7 billion in Chinese M&As.

Great Decisions 2020 Topics

The Foreign Policy Association is now selling its Great Decisions 2020 publications and packages.

Great Decisions 2020 includes my contribution on Red Sea security and the following additional topics:

--Climate change and the global order;
--India and Pakistan;
--Modern slavery and human trafficking;
--U.S. relations with the Northern Triangle;
--China's Road into Latin America;
--The Philippines and the U.S.;
--Artificial intelligence and data.

China's Loans to Africa and Latin America

The New York Times published on 26 April 2019 an oped titled "Is China the World's Loan Shark?" by Deborah Brautigam, Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies.

Based on studies of loans to Africa and Latin America, the author concludes that the risks of Chinese loans are often overstated or wrongly characterized.

China's Future in Latin America

The Center for Strategic and International Studies published in November 2018 a study titled "The Future of Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Rise of China" by R. Evan Ellis.

This study examines possible scenarios for Latin America through 2050 with particular attention to how engagement with China will shape the region. It aims to advance thinking about what current trends may mean for the region and about appropriate responses from both the US perspective and for the governments of Latin America.

The study serves as a useful counterpoint to China's future in Africa. Although China-Africa relations have received more attention than China-Latin America relations, China's trade and foreign direct investment are much greater with Latin America than with Africa.

China-Latin America Engagement Follows China-Africa Model

Global Americans posted on 2 February 2018 an analysis titled "It's Time To Think Strategically about Countering Chinese Advances in Latin America" by Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

This analysis sets forth a pattern of Chinese engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean that is remarkably similar to China's pattern in Africa. The difference is that China took an earlier interest in Africa and pursued the continent more intensely than was the case in Latin America and the Caribbean. China-Latin America/Caribbean trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) now exceed China-Africa trade and FDI. According to IMF Direction of Trade Statistics for China in 2016, its trade with Latin America/Caribbean totaled $216 billion. In the case of Africa, it was only $151 billion in 2016. Ellis reports that Chinese companies have invested about $114 billion in Latin America and the Caribbean. The FDI figures for Africa vary, but they fall below Ellis' number for Latin America and the Caribbean. The most recent official Chinese figure for Africa is $34 billion. The US-based China Global Investment Tracker puts the total closer to $83 billion.

The fact that Latin America and the Caribbean are further along the development path than Africa probably accounts for China's higher trade and FDI engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean. But as Ellis notes, China is also stepping up its diplomacy and security interaction in the Western Hemisphere.

Chinese Environment Lawyer Urges Legal Requirements, Not Guidelines for Foreign Investment

ChinaDialogue published on 1 December 2017 an interview titled "China Needs Urgent Oversight of Investments" with Zhang Jingling, an environmental lawyer and visiting scholar at the Environmental Law Institute in Washington.

The author did research in Africa, Asia, and Latin America on the role of Chinese foreign investment. Noting that Chinese companies are not transparent, she concluded that China needs to establish legal requirements rather than voluntary guidelines for Chinese foreign investments. This recommendation is important for Africa, which has somewhere between $34 billion and $83 billion of Chinese FDI.

China's Economic Slowdown and Its Infrastructure Projects in Africa

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) published in September 2016 a study titled "China's African Infrastructure Projects: A Tool in Reshaping Global Norms" by Rudolf Du Plessis, research assistant at SAIIA.

The paper argues that China's infrastructure-based economic projects in Africa have shown and will continue to show resilience in the face of new economic realities in the China-Africa relationship, as these projects fit into China's broader goals of reshaping global norms.

How China's Economic Might Is Reshaping World Politics

The World Economic Forum published in January 2016 a series of short papers titled "Geo-economics with Chinese Characteristics: How China's Economic Might Is Reshaping World Politics."

It includes the following contributions:
--Introduction by Mark Leonard
--China's Geo-economic Power by Wu Xinbo
--China's Geo-economic Outlook: 2016-2020 by Bert Hofman
--The Geo-economic Implications of China's Changing Growth Strategy by Douglas Rediker, Elizabeth Economy, and Michael Levi
--China's Infrastructure Alliances by Parag Khanna
--China in Eurasia by Sergei Guriev
--China's Geo-economic Power and the USA by Ian Bremmer
--China's Geo-economic Role in South Asia by Hina Rabbani Khar
--China's Geo-economic Role in Latin America by Evan Ellis
--China's Geo-economic Policy in the Middle East by Mahmood Saiolghalam
--China's Geo-economic Power: Africa's Case by Linah Moholo
--China's Geo-economics in Europe by Mark Leonard, Angela Stanzel, and Agatha Kratz
--China's Role in Asia-Pacific by Kishore Mahbubani

China and the United States: The Battle for Influence in Africa and Latin America

The Pacific Council hosted on 9 July 2015 a half hour discussion titled "The Battle for Influence in Africa and Latin America" with ambassador Princeton Lyman, US Institute of Peace, and myself.  The focus of the discussion was the role of China and the United States in Africa and Latin America.  Most of the session focused on Africa. 

Social and Environmental Impacts of Chinese Overseas Investment

Yale's School of Forestry and the Environment has released a summary of the conference proceedings of the 2nd Yale Symposium on Chinese Overseas Investment and Its Environmental and Social Impacts that took place at Yale University on 3-4 April 2015. 

Perceptions of China from Africa, Latin America, and Europe

Brookings published on 27 May 2015 a brief analysis titled "Other Perceptions of China: Views from Africa, Latin America, and Europe" by Amadou Sy, Harold Trinkunas, Phillippe Le Corre, and Yun Sun. 

The article argues that as China continues to grow and expand its global and political outreach, it is critical for the United States to understand the origins of China's popularity and the lingering concerns of each region.  Each region's attitude is nuanced and subject to constant fluctuations stemming from Chinese policies and practices.