Podcast on Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict

 The International Crisis Group posted on 13 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On the Cusp of War" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is gaining control over larger parts of Tigray Region while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has faced reversals and appears to be moving towards asymmetric warfare.  The TPLF is more divided today that it was during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.

There are credible reports that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) have joined the TPLF in Tigray Region and it will now be difficult to convince the ENDF to stop pursuing both the TPLF and the EDF anywhere inside Ethiopia   It is less clear how extensive is the EDF incursion into Ethiopia.  Should this result in an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, geography and military capacity favor Ethiopia.  In the event of war, external support for both sides is problematic.  Eritrea might get some assistance from Egypt.

It is important for external powers to encourage both sides to deescalate the situation.  Eventually there needs to be dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The existence of external actors with separate agendas makes dialogue and a peaceful resolution of the dispute more difficult.  

Backgrounder on the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 8 October 2026 a background piece titled "Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea" by Diana Roy.

Each year, approximately 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade worth more than $1 trillion, including 30 percent of global container traffic transits the Red Sea.  This is an excellent summary of the threat posed by the Iran-backed and Yemen-based Houthis to international shipping through the Red Sea.

Are Ethiopia and Eritrea Close to All-Out War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?" with Richard Atwood and Alan Boswell.

Eritrean Defense Forces are aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front forces against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and an opposition Tigrayan contingent.  The war in Tigray Region is nearing the Ethiopia-Eritrea border as ENDF troops advance and raises the possibility of extending into Eritrea.

Landlocked Ethiopia remains committed to obtaining permanent access to the Red Sea, although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says he will seek maritime access through negotiation and not force. Does the war in Tigray change the equation? 

Analysis of Somaliland President's Visit to US

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 9 October 2026 an analysis titled "Visit of Somaliland's President to Washington: Testing Potential Shifts in US Policy and the Trajectory of Bilateral Ties."

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi visited the US in September in hopes of advancing the country's goal of diplomatic recognition.  A meeting with President Trump was not promised and it did not happen.

The analysis concludes that Washington is likely to adopt a policy of calculated openness toward Somaliland while stopping short of formal recognition.  Bilateral relations could gradually evolve into a strategic partnership, with the path toward recognition potentially accelerating should sufficient security, political, and regional drivers converge.

Egypt Forms Anti-Ethiopia Coalition

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 8 October 2026 an analysis titled "Egypt Forms Anti-Ethiopian Coalition" by Liam Karr.

Egypt hosted on 3 October a regional summit with the leaders of Eritrea, Somalia, and the head of Sudan's armed forces.  The four countries agreed to the el Alamein joint declaration which did not mention Ethiopia but stated positions in direct response to Ethiopia's perceived policies in the region.

The joint declaration emphasized respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries in the region.  It stated that governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of the littoral states and denounced any action on dam construction that negatively impacts downstream countries.

Attention Turns to Red Sea Conflicts

 World Politics Review posted on 8 October 2026 a commentary titled "The Red Sea Is the New Epicenter of Conflict in the Middle East" by Frida Ghitis.

While the Strait of Hormuz continues to be the focus of attention, the economically vital Red Sea with conflicts raging on both sides of the waterway could erupt into an out-of-control wildfire with global repercussions.

Account of Houthi Capture of Territory Near Entrance to Red Sea

 The New York Times published on 6 October 2026 an article titled "How the Houthis Triumphed on the Red Sea and Sparked a New War in Yemen" by Vivian Nereim, Saeed Al-Batiti, and Shuaib Almosawa. 

This is an account of the seizure by Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen of territory bordering Bab el-Mandeb, the southern choke point of the Red Sea.  Yemeni government forces that were holding the territory requested assistance from Saudi Arabia and the United States to prevent the Houthi offensive.  The United States provided intelligence support, but both Saudi Arabia and the United States failed to provide air support. 

The New Red Sea Wars

 Foreign Affairs published on 6 October 2026 an article titled "The New Red Sea Wars" by Alan Boswell.

Policymakers for too long treated the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula as separate strategic regions divided by the Red Sea.  That distinction is evaporating as wars on one side of the sea increasingly alter the military calculations on the other.  US policy rarely treated the two regions as linked.  

Ethiopian Leader Again Calls for Access to Red Sea

 Aljazeera published on 5 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopian PM Abiy Demands Red Sea Access as Tensions with Neighbors Rise." 

In a speech before Parliament, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed commented that "based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea."  The remark followed a meeting in Egypt by the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia who said governance of the Red Sea was the exclusive responsibility of its coastal states. 

Comment:  While underscoring once again the need for landlocked Ethiopia to have maritime access, Abiy carefully avoided suggesting this goal would be achieved by military means.  

Podcast Inside Sudan's War

 The International Crisis Group posted on 1 October 2026 a 58-minute podcast titled "Inside Sudan's War" with Alan Boswell and Sudanese national Yousra Elbagir, Sky News Africa correspondent.

The podcast draws on Yousra Elbagir's visits to Port Sudan, ransacked family home in Khartoum, road trip from Khartoum to El Obeid following a sustained aerial attack on the city, and other locations in Sudan.  Some of her insights involved the personal impact of the war on her reporting.  

Russia has long been rumored to have obtained agreement from Sudanese authorities to establish a naval base in Port Sudan.  During an escorted visit to the Sudan Navy's base in Port Sudan, she saw no evidence of a Russian presence but understood that Russian military personnel had been at the facility in recent years.  She also learned that Saudi Arabia strongly opposes any foreign naval base in the Red Sea, whether by Russia, Turkey, Iran or any other country.  Saudi Arabia has considerable influence over the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) that controls Port Sudan.  

There have been recent rumors of SAF cooperation with the rebel Houthis in Yemen.  She neither saw nor heard any evidence of such cooperation, which would also be strongly opposed by Saudi Arabia and is effectively at war with the Houthis.

When asked about an end to the war between the SAF and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), she commented that the RSF is eroding internally.  Consequently, it is possible the RSF may choose to negotiate with the SAF.  But the SAF has no plan to achieve a lasting peace.  Both sides increasingly realize that they cannot fight forever.  In the meantime, the Sudanese people see themselves as pawns at the mercy of the SAF and RSF. 

Iran and the Horn of Africa

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 5 August 2026 an analysis titled "Iran and the Horn of Africa: Evolving Interests Since the Current Conflict" by Eric Lob.

This study suggested the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen would open a second maritime front by disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea and that Teheran will try to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.  It will be constrained, however, by the geopolitical complications of its relations with the region and by its own economic challenges.

Iran and the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 2 October 2026 an analysis titled "Iran and the 'Straits Game' in Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb: Calculating the Impact and Consequences" by Mohammad Alzghool.  

The author concluded that Iran's strategy relies on the assumption that rising energy prices, market uncertainty and public pressure will increase the political costs borne by its adversaries.  In contrast, the United States and the Gulf countries are investing in alternative oil-export routes while preparing for countermeasures, including a potential counter blockade and military action aimed at neutralizing threats.

Iranian Weapons and Chinese Dual-Use Components Enable Houthi Victories

Iran International posted on 1 October 2026 an article titled "Iranian Weapons, Chinese Supplies Fuel Houthi Advance in Yemen--WSJ" drawing on a 29 September Wall Street Journal article (behind a paywall) by Andrew Barnett, Daniel Kiss, and Benoit Faucon.  

Iranian weapons and growing supplies of Chinese dual-use components helped Yemen's Houthis expand their territory and increase their ability to threaten shipping through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  The Houthis rely on Iranian-designed missiles, drones, sea mines, armed fast boats, and drone boats. They build weapons themselves.  Chinese companies supply dual-use goods that can serve civilian and military purposes.

Break in Ethiopia-Eritrea Ties Could Lead to Wider Conflict

 Aljazeera published on 2 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea Break Ties: Does the Conflict Risk Becoming Regional War?" by Stephen Quillen.

The severance of diplomatic ties by Ethiopia and Eritrea follows months of worsening relations, driven by landlocked Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea and allegations that Eritrea is backing the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia and Egypt have also engaged recently in tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats and continue to disagree on Nile water issues.  The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) are accusing Ethiopia of supporting the rival Rapid Support Forces in Sudan while Ethiopia accuses the SAF of supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia.

As the situation in the Horn of Africa moves increasingly out of control, the prospect for a wider regional conflict grows.  

Impacts of Houthi Red Sea Attacks on African Countries

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 22 September 2026 an analysis titled "Houthi Leverage over the Red Sea Escalates Threats for Africa."

Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on shipping in the red Sea and Gulf of Aden are intensifying pressure on global supply chains.  The attacks also have direct security and economic implications for many African countries, especially in the Horn of Africa.

There has been a resurgence in Somali piracy, growing cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab in Somalia, and rising prices for refined oil products, fertilizer, and imported manufactured goods that previously transited the Suez Canal.  

Fighting in Ethiopia Could Lead to Wider Conflict

 African Arguments posted on 26 September 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Foretold War Arrives" by Matthew de Waal.

Although the strength of Ethiopia's new anti-government alliance is questionable and the Tigray People's Liberation Front is divided, the current conflict in Ethiopia is occurring during a war in neighboring Sudan, Houthi attacks disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, and ongoing terrorist activity in Somalia.  The conflict in Ethiopia could metastasize into a regional conflagration.

Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Complicate Situation in Horn of Africa

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 23 September 2026 an analysis titled "The Impacts of the Houthis' Advance Could Extend Well Beyond Saudi Arabia" by Andrew Leber and Lesley Anne Warner. 

Connections between the Houthis in Yemen and terrorist organizations in Somalia, renewed conflict and insecurity in the Horn of Africa, and a revival of Somali piracy raise the question whether the worsening situation in the Red Sea region will lead to increased US engagement.

Houthi Alliance with Al-Shabaab in Somalia

 The American Security Project published on 23 September 2026 an article titled "Two Shores, One Chokepoint: The Houthi-al-Shabaab Nexus" by Joshua Perez.

The alliance between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and al-Shabaab in Somalia demonstrates that the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint at the south end of the Red Sea has two gatekeepers.

PLA Upgrades Communications and Intel Capability at Djibouti Military Base

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 17 September 2026 an article titled "Extended Range: China Upgrades Its Military Base in Djibouti" by Matthew Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Douglas Comstock.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has installed new equipment at its military base in Djibouti that will strengthen its internal communications capabilities and enable signals intelligence collection.

This new equipment allows the PLA to maintain redundant over-the-horizon communications with Chinese ships and aircraft operating in the region and provides secure communications channels with command headquarters in China.  It probably enables the PLA to monitor the activities of other military bases in Djibouti.

Yemen's Houthis Tighten Control Over Southern Entrance to Red Sea

AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 17 September 2026 an article titled "Houthis Threaten the Bab al Mandeb" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr. 

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have taken control of Bab el Mandeb, the southern entrance to the Red Sea.  The Houthis are threatening Saudi Arabia and advancing an effort to disrupt global energy markets, although they are only prohibiting Saudi shipping through the Bab el Mandeb Strait.  

Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the only Red Sea littoral countries with a navy that can counter the Houthis.  Egypt has been reluctant so far to pursue military action against the Houthis.