The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 8 July 2025 a survey titled "Mapping Gulf State Actors' Expanding Engagements in East Africa."
The Gulf States, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are becoming increasingly important sources of investment and capital in the Horn of Africa and East Africa.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 16 June 2025 a commentary titled "Stakes and Potential Consequences of the Growing Turkish Engagement in Somalia."
Turkiye has been steadily increasing its security, political, and economic engagement in Somalia. This has resulted in a debate among Somalis. Some view Turkiye's presence favorably, while others express concerns over its depth and implications.
The Africa Report published on 16 April 2025 an article titled "As Trump and China Disengage, Africa Turns to Gulf States, Says Carlos Lopes" by Carien du Plessis.
Carlos Lopes, former head of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, commented recently that the Trump administration has disrupted China's Belt and Road Initiative and ties with Africa by focusing on opening an Artic Sea route and taking steps such as dismantling USAID. Gulf States are beginning to fill the void in Africa. The UAE, for example, has replaced China as the continent's largest investor. But Lopes sees China as only pausing engagement and eventually returning in a major way.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 2 December 2024 a study titled "Russia in the Middle East and North Africa: Arms, Power Projection, and Nuclear Diplomacy" edited by Amr Hamzawy.
The study contains the following chapters:
Introduction - Russia in the Middle East and North Africa--Disrupting Washington's Influence and Redefining Moscow's Global Role by Amr Hamzawy.
1. The Soviet Roots of Putin's Foreign Policy Toward the Middle East by Mark N. Katz.
2. Russia's Balancing Act in the Levant by Maha Yahya and Mohanad Hage Ali.
3. Soviet and Russian Policies Toward Egypt: Two Snapshots by Amr Hamzawy and Rain Ji.
4. A Mixed Balance Sheet: Russia's Uneven Influence in the Maghreb by Frederic Wehrey.
5. Autocrats United: How Russia and Iran Defy the U.S.-led Global Order by Nicole Grajewski and Karim Sadjadpour.
6. China and Russia in the Gulf: A Cacophony of Influence and Interest by Robert Mogielnicki.
7, Turkiye and Russia: An Unequal Partnership by Sinan Ulgen.
8. Russia's Enduring Presence in the Middle East by Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss.
9. Russia's Great Energy Game in the Middle East by Sergey Vakulenko.
World Politics Review published on 31 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt's Future Increasingly Passes Through the Horn of Africa" by Francisco Serrano.
With both its water resources from upstream Nile River countries such as Ethiopia and Suez Canal revenue now dependent on events in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, this region has become a strategic focus for Egypt.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in October 2024 a paper titled "U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan" by Brittany Gleixner-Hayat.
The author concluded that while there are limits to what the U.S. government could have reasonably done to increase the likelihood of democratization in Ethiopia and Sudan, Washington missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and did harm by exacerbating conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies.
The United States does not bear the responsibility for the failure of Ethiopia and Sudan to transition from authoritarianism to democracy. The likelihood of democratization in both cases was low and the contexts were conflict prone. However, the United States was a prominent external actor in both situations with a stated policy of supporting the consolidation of the democratic openings, so examining lessons learned is critical for future opportunities.
Deutsche Welle posted on 30 August 2024 a 13-minute podcast titled "Can China Regain Its Foothold in Africa?" with me and narrated by Clifford Coonan.
As the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation approaches in early September, Deutsche Welle asked for my comments on China's Belt and Road program in Africa and especially the current status of Chinese foreign direct investment and loans to the continent.
Aljazeera posted on 13 July 2023 an article titled "Iran Signs Agreements with Zimbabwe as Raisi Wraps Up Africa Tour" and a 30 minute video with commentary by Ngala Chome, Sahan Research in Kenya, Ali Akbar Dareini, Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, and Eric Lob, Florida International University.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi just completed a visit to Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, the first Iranian presidential visit to Africa since 2013. Raisi signed numerous agreements with each country. The goal of the tour was to revive Iran's relations with African countries and to help mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.
World Politics Review published on 28 March 2023 a commentary titled "Somaliland's Case for International Recognition Is Getting Complicated" by Matthew Gordon, University of Marburg.
Conflict in the Las Anod region of Somaliland and geopolitics involving the United States, China, and the Gulf States has complicated Somaliland's quest for international recognition.
Project Syndicate published on 13 March 2023 a commentary titled "African Economies in a Multipolar World" by Anzetse Were.
The author concluded that China still has much to offer Africa by way of economic engagement, but there is also growing interest from older partners such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States as well as potential new players like India, Turkey, Brazil and certain Arab states.
The Peace Research Institute Oslo published on 16 January 2023 a commentary titled "Russia, China and New Power Dynamics in the Sahel Region" by Marie Sandnes and Ilaria Carrozza.
As France withdraws from the Sahel region, Russia, China, Turkey, and the Gulf States will likely fill the void.
The International Crisis Group aired on 7 December 2022 a 40 minute podcast titled "A Conversation with Top U.S. Diplomat to Africa Molly Phee."
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, discusses US engagement throughout Africa but focuses on the situation in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, and South Sudan.
The Horn of Africa Policy Center in Minneapolis broadcast an hour long podcast on Karamara TV on 10 July 2022 with Faisal Roble, an official with the city of Los Angeles, and me. Ismail Qodax moderated the discussion.
The focus of the discussion was on Somali internal political developments but included Somali relations with Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Gulf States, Turkey, and the West.
The Middle East Institute posted on 21 June 2022 an analysis titled "Building in Africa: Turkey's 'Third Way' in China's Shadow" by John Calabrese.
Turkish construction companies are active in Africa and, on occasion, have outbid Chinese companies, which account for most infrastructure construction on the continent.
The International Crisis Group posted on 2 June 2022 a half hour podcast titled "How Somalia's Election Reshapes the Region" with Abdi Aynte, former journalist and former Somali minister of planning and international cooperation from 2015 to 2017 during President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's first term.
The author offers a positive account of the prospects for Hassan Sheikh's presidency. He says Hassan Sheikh intends to repair relations with neighbors and pursue a pragmatic foreign policy. He discussed Hassan Sheikh's approach to relations with neighbors, the wider region, and the West.
Eurasia Review published on 9 February 2022 a commentary titled "The Horn of Africa States and Egypt" by Suleiman Walhad.
As the most important source of water for the Nile River and location of countries that form the west bank of the Red Sea south of the Suez Canal, the Horn of Africa is vitally important to Egypt. The author warns that Egypt, the Horn of Africa countries, and the Gulf States need to focus on achieving mutually good relations rather than undermining each other.
Just Security published on 18 January 2022 a commentary titled "For Sudan's Democratic Imperative the US and Others Must Intensify Support" by Dave Peterson, National Endowment for Democracy.
The author argues that the international community must get serious, impose punitive sanctions on military coup leaders, and decisively support the Sudanese people's struggle for freedom.
Aljazeera interviewed me on 3 January 2022 on the resignation of Sudan's Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the prospects for a return to civilian government.
The International Crisis Group posted on 23 December 2021 a 36-minute podcast titled "Putting the Horn of Africa Back Together" with Charles Onyango-Obbo, Ugandan journalist, Betty Kaari Murungi, Kenyan lawyer, and Harry Verhoeven, Columbia University.
The podcast asks if there is any way to reverse the political fragmentation in the Horn of Africa and to build a lasting order that can stem continuing conflict. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development seems to be totally ineffective in the current situation, and there is no indication that it can step forward to solve these security issues.
Istanbul-based TRT World asked me to comment on US policy in Africa on 18 November 2021. My brief remarks focused on Sudan and Ethiopia and US efforts to solve those conflicts.
