Americans Down; Russians Up in Niger

 The Financial Times published on 24 April 2024 an article titled "Russian Troop Arrival Spells End for US Military Presence in Niger" by Aanu Adeoye.

Following the arrival in Niger of 100 Russian troops with its Africa Corps, the United States announced that, at the request of the Nigerien military regime, it will remove its 1,000 military and civilian personnel from an airbase in the northern part of the country.  According to the article, Niger's main reason for embracing Moscow is "protecting the regime," particularly from France, which it accuses of plotting its demise.  In spite of the deteriorating Niger-US relationship, Washington is trying to maintain a presence and some limited influence in the country.

Niger: Russia and Iran Set to Replace France and US

 Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 March 2024 an analysis titled "Niger Cuts the United States for Russia and Iran" by Liam Karr.

Niger is unlikely to compromise on its efforts to expand ties with Russia and Iran to maintain its military partnership with the United States.  The military regime in Niger has apparently concluded that Russia and Iran are better positioned to help ensure regime security than the United States and France, which was pushed out earlier. 

Increasingly, it appears Russian troops or mercenaries with the Africa Corps, previously known as the Wagner Group, are headed to Niger like they recently deployed to Burkina Faso to protect the regime.  

Sudan Conflict Focuses on Omdurman

 The New York Times published on 11 July 2023 an article titled "Sudanese City Becomes Center of 'New Phase' of War" by Abdi Latif Dahir.

Omdurman, across the Nile River from Khartoum, has become the center for some of the most fierce fighting in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Efforts to mediate the conflict appear to be going nowhere.  

Criticism of US Policy in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 10 May 2023 a commentary titled "How the U.S. Fumbled Sudan's Hopes for Democracy" by Robbie Gramer.

This is a sharp criticism of U.S. policy towards Sudan during the events leading up to the outbreak of conflict on 15 April 2023 between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Comment:  While there probably were U.S. policy mistakes during the events leading up to the conflict, this analysis omits one important conclusion.  Most of the blame for the catastrophe in Sudan today lies squarely with the Sudan Armed Forces led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces.  

Top US Africa Diplomat Discusses Continent

 The International Crisis Group aired on 7 December 2022 a 40 minute podcast titled "A Conversation with Top U.S. Diplomat to Africa Molly Phee."

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, discusses US engagement throughout Africa but focuses on the situation in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, and South Sudan.  

Sudan: Talks Resume between Military and Civilian Faction

 Al-Monitor published on 16 June 2022 an article titled "US, Saudi Arabia Broker Talks to Break Sudan's Coup Deadlock" by Marc Espanol. 

Sudan's military and one civilian faction met on 10 June for talks designed to break the deadlock on transitioning Sudan to civilian government.  The United States and Saudi Arabia brokered the talks, which are ongoing.  The gap remains wide between the two sides (actually three sides as an important civilian faction is boycotting the talks).  

Sudan Negotiations Begin Inauspiciously

 The Associated Press published on 8 June 2022 an article titled "Talks to End Sudan Crisis Begin as Anti-coup Groups Boycott" by Samy Magdy.

Talks are underway in Sudan to end the differences between the military, which controls the government, and civilians, who are pressing for a transition to democratic, civilian rule.  Unfortunately, the Forces for Freedom and Change are boycotting the process.  

US Looking at New Sanctions on Sudan

 Dabanga, an independent Sudanese news broadcaster, published on 2 February 2022 an article titled "US Senators Seek Sudan Sanctions."

US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 1 February where she said the Biden administration is reviewing the tools to limit funding available to the Sudanese army and to isolate the companies controlled by the army.  Several senators pressed for stronger sanctions against the military government in Sudan.  

The Sudan Tribune published on 2 February 2022 the text of Molly Phee's statement on Sudan before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

US Continues Withholding Aid to Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 20 January 2022 an article titled "US Says It Will Not Resume Sudan Aid after Recent Violence."

US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, David Satterfield, and US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, recently visited Khartoum.  They explained the United States will continue withholding aid from Sudan until the country's military rulers stop the killing of civilian protesters and a civilian-led government takes power.  

Reuters covered that same topic on 20 January 2022 in an article titled "Sudan Council Agrees with U.S. on Amending Democracy Transition Document."

Is US Influence Waning in Sudan?

 Foreign Policy posted on 3 December 2021 an analysis titled "The Battle for Khartoum Exposes Waning U.S. Influence" by Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer.

The authors argue that the Sudan crisis offers a window into the messy and often convoluted nature of U.S. diplomacy as the United States' unipolar moment vanishes.  Sudan is a case study in how Washington's inattention to Africa over the decades has sown the seeds of waning U.S. influence across the continent, particularly on issues at the core of U.S. foreign policy, from the promotion of democracy and human rights to the war on terror.

Comment:  The U.S. unipolar moment vanished some time ago. While U.S. influence in Sudan may have experienced a decline in recent weeks, I don't see that anyone else has stepped in to replace it.