AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 August 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Ellery White and Liam Karr.
The United States planned to hold peace talks in late July with the major external actors in the Sudan conflict Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Last minute disagreements between the UAE and Egypt resulted in a postponement of the talks until at least September.
Stimson published on 12 August 2025 an analysis titled "China Sends Houthis Dual-Use Technology to Boost Influence and Undercut the US" by Mohammad Salami, International Institute for Global Strategic Analysis.
China is providing the Houthis with dual-use technologies such as satellite imagery and drone components, complicating US maritime security efforts in the Red Sea. In return, China has secured safe passage for its vessels.
China's policy is to discredit US policies, emphasize neutrality, and appeal to Arab and Global South audiences.
The China Global South Project published on 26 July 2025 an article titled "Chinese, Iranian and Turkish Drones Fuel Africa's New Era of Low-cost Warfare" by Celia Lebur and Mathieu Rabechault.
Some 30 African governments have acquired drones, giving them access to more affordable air power. China, Turkey, and Iran sell them without any political conditionality. They are often used to defeat internal dissident movements.
The International Crisis Group posted on 24 July 2025 a 32-minute podcast titled "What Does Sudan's RSF Want?" with Alan Boswell and Sarra Majdoub, Sudan analyst.
Khartoum became a liability for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) where it lacked local support. Supply chains and recruiting became difficult and the RSF decided to pull out of the capital. Fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF has shifted to Kordofan and northern Darfur where the RSF is still a threat but does not have full control. The RSF is fighting to stay politically relevant.
The RSF is comprised of many different ethnic groups, which creates the possibility for internal divisions. It recently aligned with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North and may be preparing to establish a separate government in Western Sudan. This could lead to a permanent state or only serve as a way to bargain with the SAF.
The RSF conducted drone strikes on the SAF in Port Sudan and elsewhere because it lost Khartoum and wants to send the message that it can reach the SAF anywhere. The RSF's supply chain in Darfur is challenging but it receives requirements through Chad, southern Libya, and by air bridge to Nyala. The RSF connection with the UAE is well known but Abu Dhabi is probably not in a position to dictate the RSF's future. The RSF wants to be treated as an equal partner in Sudan.
The Wall Street Journal published on 10 July 2025 an article titled "Two Ships Desperately Tried to Fight Off Houthi Attacks. Help Never Arrived" by Benoit Faucon and Lara Seligman.
The article includes dramatic video coverage of two Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned ships that Houthi rebels sank this week in the Red Sea. These attacks came two months after the United States announced a ceasefire with the Houthis following airstrikes on their positions in Yemen.
A senior US Defense Department official said Washington still considers the ceasefire to be in place so long as the Houthis are not firing at American ships.
The Wall Street Journal posted on 10 July 2025 a three-minute video of two ships sinking in the Red Sea following drone and missile attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Both ships are Liberian-flagged and Greek-owned. Benoit Faucon narrates the video.
Military Africa published on 2 July 2025 an article titled "Egypt Confirms Acquisition of Chinese HQ-9B Long-range Air Defence System" by Darek Liam.
Egypt is buying from China a long-range surface-to-air missile system designed to counter fighter jets, cruise missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles. Frustrated by Western restrictions on arms sales, Cairo is turning increasingly to China, which is positioning itself as a reliable supplier of weapons to countries in the Middle East.
The International Crisis Group posted on 20 June 2025 an article titled "Capture of Tri-border Area Marks Another Twist in Sudan's Civil War" by Shewit Woldemichael.
Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have seized control of the strategic Sudan-Libya-Egypt border triangle, which marks a significant victory for the RSF following setbacks elsewhere in Sudan. This could mark the start of an offensive by the RSF into regions that have so far seen limited fighting, forcing the Sudan Armed Forces to redirect resources.
The Atlantic Council published on 6 June 2025 a study titled "Keeping China at Bay and Critical Minerals Stocked: The Case for US-Africa Defense Collaboration" by Alexsandra Gadzala Tirziu.
Africa holds one-third of the world's known mineral resources, including 80 percent of platinum and chromium, 47 percent of cobalt, and 21 percent of graphite. Of the 50 minerals designated as critical by the US Geological Service, 32 are found in Africa. China accounts for 85 percent of global mineral processing capacity.
The US should help African nations develop their own domestic mineral processing capabilities to build their own self-sufficiency and to diminish China's lock on processing capacity. This could contribute to a reliable supply source of critical minerals for the Unites States. It could also strengthen US security alliances with African countries.
AEI Critical Threats published on 22 May 2025 an analysis titled "SAF Advances across Sudan Despite RSF Drone Strikes" by Kathryn Tyson.
The Sudan Armed Forces have made incremental progress against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in spite of successful RSF drone strikes on Port Sudan.
Aljazeera published on 13 May 2025 an article titled "Drones, Gold, and Threats: Sudan's War Raises Regional Tensions" by Mat Nashed.
As Sudan's civil war enters its third year, drones are playing a larger role in the conflict. The Sudan Armed Forces relies on the relatively affordable Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces uses Chinese-made drones purchased and supplied by the UAE.
The New York Times published on 12 May 2025 an article titled "Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia" by Helene Cooper, Greg Jaffe, Jonathan Swan, Eric Schmitt, and Maggie Haberman.
The Trump administration, following an internal debate, concluded that after 30 days of extensive airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen, it was just another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region. The Houthis shot down 7 MQ-9 Reaper drones, two $67 million aircraft fell off an aircraft carrier, and the US burned through in one month about $1 billion worth of weapons and munitions that were becoming in short supply.
Although the operation disrupted and diminished Houthi capacity, it did not eliminate it or show signs of being able to do so. President Trump decided to declare victory, negotiate a ceasefire, and end the airstrikes.
Foreign Affairs published on 9 May 2025 an article titled "How the Houthis Outlasted America" by April Longley Alley, previously at the US Institute of Peace.
President Trump announced on 6 May that the US would end its airstrikes, which totaled more than 1,000, on Houthi targets in Yemen. The situation in the Red Sea today is essentially the same as it was before the administration's round of US airstrikes on the Houthis, although they are low on munitions and their leadership has been temporarily disrupted.
Trump said the Houthis "capitulated," but they retain their hold on power and called the ceasefire a "victory for Yemen." Although the US campaign put the Houthis under tremendous pressure, they were far from deterred, much less defeated, at the time of the ceasefire.
The East African published on 8 May 2025 an article titled "Drone Attacks Spread to Sudan's 'Safe Havens' as War Escalates" by Mawahib Abdallatif.
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has launched drone attacks on parts of Sudan under Sudan Armed Forces control where they have not occurred in the past two years. These attacks are adding to the humanitarian crisis in the country.
The Atlantic Council published on 5 May 2025 an analysis titled "How China Turned the Red Sea into a Strategic Trap for the US" by Fatima Abo Alasrar, Washington Center for Yemen Studies.
From the beginning, China made a deal with the Houthis to exempt Chinese-flagged and owned vessels from attack. Chinese companies subsequently strengthened Houthi capabilities by providing satellite targeting data. Beijing now portrays the crisis as revealing "United States' impotence" against "non-traditional opponents like the Houthis" while claiming US military intervention has "only triggered more resistance."
The Wall Street Journal published on 8 May 2025 an article titled "Shippers Are Skeptical of Trump's Truce with the Houthis" by Stephen Kalin, Costas Paris, and Benoit Faucon.
Major container-shipping companies have no immediate plans to return to the Suez Canal/Red Sea following President Trump's announcement of an agreement with the Houthis to end attacks on Red Sea shipping. As long as the war in Gaza continues, shipping companies believe the situation is too dangerous. Nor is it clear whether the ceasefire applies to all vessels or just those flying US and UK flags.
Aljazeera published on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Port Sudan Explosions: Lifeline for Aid Comes under Attack for Fourth Day."
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has launched drone attacks for the past 4 days on Port Sudan, the temporary capital for the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). Most aid for Sudan goes through Port Sudan on the Red Sea. The SAF has accused the United Arab Emirates of arming the RSF.
CNN posted on 5 May 2025 an article titled "Israel Strikes Houthi Targets in Yemen for the First Time in Months, A Day After Tel Aviv Airport Attack" by Jeremy Diamond and Dana Karni.
Israeli aircraft attacked Houthi targets in Yemen on 5 May following a strike by a Houthi missile on Tel Aviv airport. So far, US, UK, and Israeli airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen have failed to stop Houthi missile and drone attacks aimed at international shipping and US naval ships in the Red Sea and against Israel.
Newsweek published on 2 May 2025 an article titled "U.S. War on the Houthis: Five Things to Watch" by Amira El-Fekki.
US airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen is the first major military operation ordered by the current Trump administration. The article identifies five key issues to watch for going forward.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 29 April 2025 an analysis titled "Assessment of Somalia's Security Landscape and Prospects of Counterterrorism Efforts."
Somalia is likely to face a continuing back-and-forth conflict situation with al-Shabaab terrorists. This prospect decreases Somalia's ability to recover politically and economically. It also raises the possibility of "Afghanization" should the balance of power shift in favor of al-Shabaab.
