Chinese Investment and Construction in Sub-Saharan Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute published in November 2026 a study titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some Facts About Investing and Building" by Ian Jones and Derek Scissors.

This is an important study that concludes China's engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa has pivoted from building infrastructure in populous countries to buying assets in mineral-rich ones, with state-owned enterprises undertaking most of the activity in both cases.

Metals account for 75 percent of investment in 2023-2025 compared to 49 percent in 2005-2025.  State investors predominate, and in 2023-2025, Chinese investment was focused in the DRC, Zambia, Guinea, and Botswana.  Copper attracts the most money.  

African Countries Demand More Critical Mineral Processing in Africa, China Accepts

 The South China Morning Post published on 7 November 2026 an article titled "Why China Is Investing Heavily in African Push to Bring Mineral Processing Home" by Jevans Nyabiage.

More African countries are pressing customers for critical minerals to do more processing in Africa to add value rather than extract raw ore.  China says it will support efforts by African countries to increase the number of processing operations there.

What Does Russia Hope to Achieve in Africa?

 Deutsche Welle published on 28 October 2026 an article titled "Russia in Africa: What Does the Kremlin Hope to Achieve?" by Oleg Loginov.

Russia has important economic ties with Egypt but with few other African countries.  Moscow is preparing to compete in the critical minerals sector and Russian mercenaries support African regimes in several Sahel countries.  Russia remains a major supplier of arms to African countries and is an important source of fertilizer and grains.

Chinese Companies End Kenyan Rare Earth Competition with Western Companies

 Business Insider Africa published on 2 November 2026 an article titled "Two Chinese Mining Firms Pull Out of Kenya's Rare Earth and Niobium Extraction Race as Three American Companies Stand Their Ground among Five Remaining Bidders" by Olamilekan Okebiorun.

Two major Chinese companies have exited the bidding process for Kenya's Mrima Hill critical minerals deposit.  They did not give a reason for their decision.  Three of the five remaining contenders are US-linked, with the others being an Australian consortium and a Kenyan-British joint venture.  

Africa, China, and the Green Revolution

 The South African Institute for International Affairs published on 23 October 2026 an analysis titled "Africa's Industrial Moment: Strategic Agency, China and the Green Transition" by Roli Asthana.

This policy paper urges that African nations, rather than compete directly with China, should identify specific components of clean energy manufacturing where they can develop competitive capabilities and negotiate with Chinese firms and other external investors to locate manufacturing, assembly, supplier development, and associated capabilities within African countries.  

Solomonic Decision by Angola and Tanzania Skirts Great Power Competition

 West Africa Weekly published on 30 October 2026 an article titled "Tanzania and Angola Agree to Link Atlantic and Indian Ocean Rail Corridors."

Tanzania and Angola have agreed to link Angola's Benguela railway that connects to the Atlantic Ocean with the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA) that connects to the Indian Ocean.  China originally built and continues to support TAZARA while the United States and European Union support the Lobito Corridor project in Angola, the DRC, and Zambia.

This decision by Angola and Tanzania effectively links the competing Western and Chinese railway projects into a single network that does not force the African countries to choose between the West and China.

Africa-China Climate Cooperation

 The Diplomat published on 23 October 2026 an article titled "The Next Chapter of Africa-China Climate Cooperation" by Yike Fu.

The author says China is shifting from contractor-led cooperation in Africa toward longer-term investment partnerships.  Africa-China climate cooperation is increasingly extending beyond individual renewable energy projects toward the development of integrated green industrial value chains.  Climate cooperation is also increasingly being built through and reinforcing African initiatives and institutions.

Africa Advances Its Interests in a Competitive World

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 22 October 2026 an analysis titled "Africa in Demand: How the Continent Is Advancing Its Interests in a Competitive World" by Fonteh Akum.

Africa is in high demand as interest-driven external powers seek partnerships that enhance their diplomatic, economic, and technological edge.  At the same time, African actors are increasingly hedging and diversifying partnerships according to their own security, infrastructure, and energy agendas.  These dynamics demonstrate that external actors and African stakeholders can form partnerships that advance both their interests--diplomacy is not mutually exclusive or zero sum.

Geopolitical dynamics--marked by both rising middle powers and ongoing great power competition between the United States and China--are shaping both external counterparts' approaches toward Africa and African states' engagement with the world.  The continent's mineral endowments are an object of increasing great and middle power attraction, and so are its security markets for defense cooperation.

Reshaping China's Critical Minerals Strategy in Africa

 China Africa Security Radar posted on 11 October 2026 an analysis titled "Chinese Study Shows How African Agency Is Reshaping China's Critical Minerals Strategy."

China obtains 99 percent of its cobalt, 85 percent of its manganese, 81 percent of its chromium, and 70 percent of its bauxite from Africa.  Policy shifts in African countries are forcing China to rethink its critical minerals strategy.

China-US Competition for DRC Copper and Cobalt

 Discovery Alert published on 8 October 2026 an analysis titled "Why China's Grip on DRC Copper Is Deepening, Not Loosening" by Muflih Hidayat.  

China's share of imported copper from the DRC, the world's second largest copper producing nation after Chile, climbed to 45 percent in the first seven months of 2026.  Chinese companies have spent years building vertical integration across the DRC's mining and refining sectors, controlling an estimated 70-80 percent of industrial-scale copper-cobalt production.  

The DRC this year banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrate, forcing more domestic value-added processing.  New smelter capacity in the DRC is largely backed by Chinese capital.  This has the effect of strengthening Beijing's position, making it difficult for American and European companies to compete.

Nevertheless, US imports of DRC copper surged in 2026, although it remains to be seen if the surge is durable and whether the Lobito Corridor project can change the nature of US-China competition in the DRC.

Western Mining Companies Can Compete with Chinese Companies in Africa

Reuters published on 25 September 2026 an article titled "Western Miners Can Match China's Speed If African Governments Cut Red Tape, KoBold  President Says" by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Oliva Kumwenda Mtambo.

California-based KoBold Metals says Western miners can match China's pace in developing critical minerals in Africa as long as governments streamline approvals and improve coordination among regulators.   

China and US Compete for South Africa's Platinum

 Semafor published on 21 September 2026 an article titled "South Africa Woos US and China with Platinum" by Alexis Akwagyiram, Tiisetso Motsoeneng, and Sam Mkokeli.

South Africa is the world's leading supplier of platinum and seeking to gain influence with both China and the United States.  The US needs it for catalytic converters and defense equipment while China needs it to develop green hydrogen as a form of sustainable energy.

At the political level, the Trump administration continues to alienate South Africa, while China is cultivating the South African government.  Washington's criticism of South Africa shows no signs of abating, which risks losing more ground to Beijing in the race to secure access to Pretoria's critical minerals.

Digital Diplomacy in Africa: China Moves Forward While US Stumbles

 The Atlantic Council published on 11 September 2026 a commentary titled "The US Must Become Africa's Partner on Technology and AI.  It Can Do So with Soft Power" by Troy Fitrell and Kathryn Fitrell.

China has a digital strategy for Africa, but the United States does not. It recently cancelled a useful component for such a strategy, but it is not too late to revive it. 

US Africa Assistant Secretary's Visit to Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya

 Firstpost posted on 1 September 2026 a 15-minute podcast titled "Trump Targets Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya" with Alyson Le Grange.

The podcast reviews US ties with Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya as US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Frank Garcia, makes his inaugural visit to those countries.  Le Grange discusses critical minerals in Zambia, Red Sea security with Ethiopia, and Kenya's status as the only US non-NATO ally in sub-Saharan Africa.  She asks about Washington's "trade not aid" policy and wonders what Africa wants out of its relationship with the United States.

US Critical Minerals Policy in Africa

 The Global South Policy Hub, a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank, published on 17 August 2026 a paper titled "Aligning U.S. Critical Minerals Policy with Africa's Development Agenda" by Alaka Lugonzo.  

Africa holds about 30 percent of the world's critical minerals that power renewable energy technology.  Africa's critical mineral wealth is rapidly reshaping its relationship with the United States.  The author argues that current US mineral partnerships remain heavily tilted toward securing supply chains rather than delivering shared economic benefits.  

The United States has an opportunity to rethink its approach by moving away from extractive relationships toward transparent industrial partnerships along the lines of the African Union's African Green Mineral Strategy (AGMS).  A more sustainable approach would align US strategic interests with Africa's development agenda.

Comment:  While this is sound advice, China is a much larger importer of Africa's critical minerals than the United States.  It would be useful if some organization, particularly one in Africa, could offer similar advice for Beijing.

African Leaders Welcome More Players in Continent

 Vietnam.vn published on 28 August 2026 an article titled "The Geopolitical Race for Influence, Resources, and Power in Africa" by Bao Quoc Te.  

The competition for expanding influence in Africa involves more actors than ever before and is constantly evolving. Most African countries are benefiting from the increasing attention by more external countries.   

The Decline of France in Africa's Sahel and Rise of China

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 29 July 2026 an article titled "How France's Fall Signals China's Rise in the Sahel" by Raghvendra Kumar.

China has seized on the decline of French and Western influence in Africa's Sahel to embed itself into the region's political, economic, and security structures.  The article pays particular attention to China's role in Burkina Faso.  

China and US Following Zambian Election: Critical Minerals Are the Prize

 The Associated Press published on 14 August 2026 an article titled "Zambia Awaits Presidential Election Results. Here's Why China and the US May Be Interested" by Jacob Zimba.

Zambia awaits the results of an election that will decide whether President Hakainde Hichilema wins a second five-year term.  Both China and the US are interested in Zambian copper and cobalt and hence the outcome of the election and its impact on each country.

Podcast on Horn of Africa

 The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.  

This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.

China-Sub-Saharan Africa Ties and U.S. Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 6 August 2026 a report titled "China-Sub-Saharan Africa Ties and U.S. Policy" by Nicolas Cook, Lauren Ploch Blanchard, and Michael D. Sutherland.

This is a comprehensive overview of China's relations with Sub-Saharan Africa and guidance for US policymakers.