China-US Competition in Africa: Who's Winning?

 iStocks posted on You Tube on 15 June 2025 a 23-minute video titled "Africa Is Becoming the New Battleground: US vs China -- Who's Winning?"

There is a full-on competition between the United States and China for influence in Africa.  This is a story of power and leverage between Washington and Beijing.  The engagement models used in Africa by China and the US are very different. Beijing provides loans, construction companies, and often its own labor to build infrastructure projects across the continent.  They are fast and avoid political conditionality but add to African debt.  The US is transactional and wants to make deals by mobilizing the private sector.  But they are slow, and the private sector often has difficulty raising financing. 

For many years the US was the preferred partner of most African countries, but recent polls show that China is now the preferred partner.  Recent US policy decisions affecting Africa have also harmed its reputation as a reliable partner.  In the final analysis, Africans don't want to choose between China and the US, but they want the best deal they can get from both partners and others, including the European Union, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea.  

China Benefits Most from Forum on China-Africa Cooperation

 The Conversation published on 2 September 2024 a commentary titled "China Reaps Most of the Benefits of Its Relationship with Africa: What's Behind the Imbalance" by Bhaso Ndzendze, University of Johannesburg.  

At the 8 previous meetings of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, China has reaped most of the benefits.  The fault lies with Africa's lack of a strategy for engagement with China.  The forum is a platform for China to dole out aid and loans to African countries, and to articulate priorities that serve its own broader ambitions.  Africa's voice is minimal in the agenda setting.  

Africa needs a concerted approach towards China and all of its so-called strategic partnerships.  The African Union Commission should negotiate and set the overall direction in these forums.  China has had a long-standing Africa strategy; Africa has none for China. The result is the imbalanced terms of trade between China and African countries.   

Illegal Fishing on Chinese Vessels in African Waters of Southwest Indian Ocean

 The London-based Environmental Justice Foundation published in April 2024 a report titled "Tide of Injustice: Exploitation and Illegal Fishing on Chinese Vessels in the Southwest Indian Ocean."

China's distant-water fleet (DWF) is by far the world's largest.  This report maps the presence and activities of the Chinese DWF in the Southwest Indian Ocean, which includes the exclusive economic zones of the coastal states Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique and the Indian Ocean islands of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles.  Illegal fishing and human rights abuses were found to be commonplace on Chinese vessels throughout the region.

Chinese vessels were linked to 86 unique cases (relating to 177 suspected or confirmed offences) of illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing or human rights abuses within the Southwest Indian Ocean region between 2017 and 2023.  

Podcast on Industrialization in Ethiopia

 The Nanyang Technological University posted on 30 January 2023 a 30 minute podcast on its Singapore-Africa Conversation titled "State Intervention and Industrialisation of Ethiopia" with Arkebe Oqubay, former special adviser to the Ethiopian prime minister.

Oqubay explained that Ethiopia is following the East Asian (China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, South Korea) model of economic development.  He said the "Washington consensus" model is not appropriate for Ethiopia.  Oqubay discussed the role of state intervention in an economy where the private sector is the primary actor.  Ethiopia's most important economic advantage is its demography, especially its young population and investment in skills training.

Comment:  This is a highly positive conversation.  There was no mention, for example, of the impact of conflict on the Ethiopian economy.  

Ethiopia and COVID-19

Ethiopia Insight posted on 4 April 2020 an article titled "Ethiopia Inaction Will Lead to Another COVID-19 Catastrophe" by Chris Preager, resident in Addis Ababa.

The author urges Ethiopia to learn the lessons of other countries, especially Iran and South Korea, in its efforts to combat COVID-19.

China, Africa, and Distant Water Fishing

The Environmental Security Program at Stimson published on 1 November 2019 a report titled "Shining a Light: The Need for Transparency across Distant Water Fishing."

China has the world's largest distant water fishing fleet. From 2015 to 2017, it accounted for about 38 percent of all distant water fishing. Coastal waters off West African and Indian Ocean countries are the location of much of this fishing, which increasingly constitutes illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Based on case studies in waters off Mozambique and Seychelles, Asian countries (China, Taiwan, and South Korea) appear to be the major cause of IUU fishing.

China's Maritime Silk Road, Energy, and the Indian Ocean

The National Bureau of Asian Research published in November 2017 a series of essays titled "Asia's Energy Security and China's Belt and Road Initiative."

One of the contributions is titled "China's Maritime Silk Road and Energy Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean: Motivations and Implications for the Region" by Christopher Len, National University of Singapore. This essay examines how the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road under China's Belt and Road Initiative relates to Beijing's quest for energy security and draws implications for Japan, India, South Korea and the United States. It also discusses the role of Africa, especially China's engagement in Djibouti.

Ivory Market Shifts to Laos and Chinese Buyers

Nairobi-based Save the Elephants just published a report titled "The Ivory Trade of Laos: Now the Fastest Growing in the World" by Lucy Vigne and Esmond Martin.

Now that China is phasing out the legal sale of ivory, the retail business has moved to Laos where many of the shops are owned by traders from China. Chinese buy more than 80 percent of the ivory being sold in Laos. There are also a few buyers from South Korea and other Asian countries.

African Studies in East Asia

Cornell University's Institute for African Development spring 2017 issue contains an article titled "African Studies . . . . . . in East Asia" by Dae-Un Hong, a doctoral candidate in international law at Cornell Law School.

The article provides a brief description of the development of African Studies in China, Japan and South Korea.

The Indian Ocean and Deep Seabed Mining

Young Diplomats posted on 3 February 2017 my comments titled "The Indian Ocean and Deep Seabed Mining."

The posting argues that deep seabed mining, which is still five to ten years from reality, poses a number of serious environmental and geopolitical issues that have not yet been resolved satisfactorily. Although there has been more interest in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the Indian Ocean is fast becoming a focus for deep seabed mining, especially for China and India.

The Young Diplomats' editorial team consists of young international relations experts from around the world. The website at www.young-diplomats.com covers a wide variety of international issues.

Japan and China Compete in Africa

South Korea's TBS eFM This Morning radio program titled "Issue Today: Japan's African Investment" interviewed me for 10 minutes on 13 September 2015 concerning Japan's recently held TICAD in Nairobi, Kenya and the competition in Africa between Japan and China. The interview focused on Japan's trade, aid, and investment in Africa.

You have to scroll to the entry in the right-hand column dated 0913 and cited as Issue Today: Japan's African Investment.

North Korea's African Allies

The Diplomat published on 4 June 2016 a good update of North Korea's relations with Africa titled "North Korea's African Allies" by Samuel Ramani, a MPhil student at St. Antony's College, University of Oxford. The piece emphasizes North Korea's relations with Uganda, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, DRC, and Burundi.

Western Africa's Missing Fish

London-based Overseas Development Institute published in June 2016 a report titled "Western Africa's Missing Fish: The Impacts of Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing and Under-Reporting Catches by Foreign Fleets" by Alfonso Daniels, Miren Gutierrez, Gonzalo Fanjul, Arantxa Guerena, Ishbel Matheson, and Kevin Watkins.

The report concludes that overfishing in the world's oceans has reached catastrophic levels. Many major fish stocks are in decline. Some species are being pushed towards extinction. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is heavily implicated in overfishing. As much as one fifth of the world's fisheries catch may originate from IUU activity. Western Africa is at the epicenter of the tragedy. About 84 percent of the fish exported from western Africa leave the region in large refrigerated containers. China has the world's largest refrigerated fleet followed by Japan, Spain, South Korea, Russia, and Taiwan. The catches of the Chinese distant-water fleets are almost completely undocumented and unreported.

Bloomberg published on 18 July 2016 a short article titled "Cameroon Impounds Chinese-manned Vessel for Illegal Fishing" by Divine Ntaryike Jr. The article underscores the nature of the problem.

Africa's Changing Partnerships over the Next Decade

The Institute for Defense Analyses, National Intelligence University, and Office of the Director of National Intelligence hosted a conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on 7 June 2016 titled "The United States and Africa: Looking toward the Next Decade." I gave a presentation on "Africa's Changing Partnerships over the Next Decade." It focused on Africa's present and future trade, aid, investment, and security relationships with partner countries.

South Korea's Charm Offensive in East Africa

Chatham House published on 25 May 2016 a commentary titled "Regional Competition Could Obstruct South Korea's Charm Offensive in East Africa" by Adjoa Anyimadu and Daragh Neville.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye is visiting Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya in an effort to revive relations with Africa, which have in recent years had a low priority in Seoul's foreign policy.

FOCAC in Perspective

The United Nations Development Program published on 1 December 2015 an issue brief titled "South-South Cooperation China: FOCAC in Perspective."  It is a brief summary of the FOCAC process and identifies other coordination efforts with Africa by Japan, France, India, Turkey, South Korea and the US. 

Russian Academy of Sciences Papers on Africa

The Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences published in 2014 conference papers titled Africa's Growing Role in World Politics.  Click here to see the table of contents.

The section on China-Africa relations contains the following papers:

--China's Role in Africa in the 21st Century by Tatiana Deych.
--Ethiopia and China: Two Former Empires Connect in the 20th Century by David Shinn.
--Can Africa Benefit from its Booming Cooperation with China? The State Capacity Factor in Comparative Perspective by Mamoudou Gazibo.
--China's Relationship with Sub-Saharan Africa: Despite Convergence with Industrialized Countries, Drivers or Structural Transformation? by Alice Nicole Sindzingre.
--China and Africa: Mutual Interest by Yury Smertin.

South Korea's Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa

Chatham House published in October 2014 a research paper titled "South Korea's Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa: Fortune, Fuel and Frontier Markets" by Vincent Darracq and Daragh Neville, both at Chatham House. 

South Korea's renewed engagement in sub-Saharan Africa is driven primarily by three factors: the pursuit of food and energy security; the establishment of new markets for its manufactured goods; and the enhancement of its credentials as a prominent global power, particularly in order to counter the diplomacy of North Korea. 

Asian Investment and Africa's Textile Industry

The Center for Global Policy at Carnegie-Tsinghua published on 5 August 2014 a study titled "The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa's Textile Industries" by Tang Xiaoyang, resident scholar at Carnegie-Tsinghua.  The author argues that as African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian, primarily Chinese, investors and African companies become more complex.  Asian investors present both a challenge to an opportunity for local industries.

Ethiopia: History of Participation in the Korean War

South Korea's Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs has posted online in English a 205 page history of Ethiopia's participation in the Korean War titled "The Eternal Partnership: Ethiopia and Korea."  This account documents the actions of the brave Kagnew Battalions that fought in Korea between 1951 and 1954.

This research came to my attention in, of all places, the January-March 2014 issue of "Menelik's Journal" published by the Ethiopian Philatelic Society.  This is an essential journal for all collectors of Ethiopian stamps.