Will China Replace US Foreign Aid?

 AidData published in March 2025 an analysis titled "Into the Breach: Will China Step Up as the U.S. Retreats from Global Development?" by Samantha Custer, Bryan Burgess, and Narayani Sritharan.  

AidData concluded that Beijing is unlikely to fully step into the breach by mimicking America's historical role as the largest aid supplier in sectors such as health, governance, and humanitarian assistance.  China might approach the US dismantlement of USAID by doubling down on three existing lines of engagement: a public-private focus on a "Health Silk Road," aid-like training and capacity building of civilian government officials and security services, and China-led leadership of South-South cooperation related to emergencies and conflict.  

Africa's Unreported Debt to China

 The Review of International Organizations published in September 2023 an analysis titled "Why Hide? Africa's Unreported Debt to China" by Kathleen J. Brown.  

Governments intentionally hide debts from international financial institutions to maximize their ability to borrow while avoiding punishment for rising debt burdens.  Half of the Chinese loans in Sub-Saharan Africa are missing from sovereign debt records.  Using data from Chinese bilateral loans to Sub-Saharan Africa, the author provides evidence that borrower governments intentionally hide debt from international financial institutions to circumvent constraints placed on their external debt.  

Estimating China's Foreign Aid

The Japan International Cooperation Agency published on 14 December 2020 a study titled "Estimating China's Foreign Aid: 2019-2020 Preliminary Figures" by Naohiro Kitano and Yumiko Miyabayashi.  

The study provides a wealth of information on China's global foreign assistance program from 2001 to 2020.  Compared to the major bilateral donors--United States, Germany, and UK--China is a modest provider of overseas development assistance.  The study does not break out China's aid figures by geographical region.  

China and Russia in Africa

The Daily Maverick published on 5 August 2020 an opinion piece titled "China and Russia in Africa: Development Allies or Geopolitical Opportunists?" by Nina Callaghan, Dzvinka Kachur, and Mark Swilling. 

The authors write that China's and Russia's interests in Africa are strategic to their national objectives, have been carefully planned, and have become more sophisticated and deliberate over the past two decades.  Russia's trade and investment in Africa are far below that of China's and focused heavily in the energy sector.  The authors conclude that Africa must come to the realization that it is in the continent's interests to negotiate fairer agreements that do not leave them saddled with more debt or the potential loss of national assets.  

 

Estimating China's Foreign Aid

The Japan International Cooperation Agency Research Institute published on 27 September 2019 a paper titled "Estimating China's Foreign Aid: 2017-2018 Preliminary Figures" by Naohiro Kitano.

The paper provides revised and updated estimates of net and gross disbursements of China's global foreign aid from 2001 to 2018. China's net foreign aid is estimated to have increased from $4.9 billion in 2014 to $6.4 billion in 2018, mainly due to an increase in grants and interest-free loans. The report does not indicate where the aid goes but historically about 50 percent of China's global aid has gone to Africa.

China, Israel, Kenya, and Bribes

Kenya's Business Daily published on 25 September 2018 an article titled "How Israel, China Firms Bribe Kenyan Officials" by Brian Ngugi.


The article reports that Chinese and Israel companies are among international contractors who regularly bribe Kenyan officials to win lucrative public infrastructure contracts according to a new report by Transparency International.

Estimating China's Foreign Aid

The IDS Bulletin published in July 2018 an article titled "Estimating China's Foreign Aid Using New Data" by Naohiro Kitano.

There is a long-running debate about the amount of China's OECD-equivalent foreign aid. In this article, Naohiro Kitano updates the estimates of China's global foreign aid from 2001 to 2014 and compares the results with the foreign aid from the OECD's Development Assistance Committee members. Kitano, who has studied this issue in recent years, estimates China's net global foreign aid decreased from $5.4 billion in 2013 to $4.9 billion in 2014. Historically, Africa has received about half of China's aid.

China's Foreign Aid and Africa

The Australian National University published in 2017 a book on China's New Sources of Economic Growth that contains a chapter titled "China's Innovative and Pragmatic Foreign Aid: Shaped by and Now Shaping Globalisation" by Lauren Johnston, University of Melbourne, and Marina Rudyak, Heidelberg University.

Just over half of China's foreign aid goes to Africa. This chapter summarizes the evolution of China's inbound and outbound foreign aid policy. It offers an especially good historical analysis of China's outbound foreign aid. The chapter also discusses the significance of China's foreign aid for recipient countries, with particular reference to Africa.

Estimating China's Foreign Aid

Japan's JICA Research Institute published on 26 May 2017 "A Note on Estimating China's Foreign Aid Using New Data: 2015 Preliminary Figures" by Naohiro Kitano.

The note presents estimates of China's foreign aid from 2001 to 2015 as defined by the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and makes comparisons with the net ODA flows of major DAC member countries and emerging providers that report to the DAC. In an earlier analysis, China reported that 52 percent of its foreign aid goes to Africa.

Aid Conditionality in Africa: Impact of Chinese Aid

The Chinese Political Science Review published online on 3 February 2017 a study titled "Does Conditionality Still Work? China's Development Assistance and Democracy in Africa" by Xiaojun Li, The University of British Columbia.

The author asks whether aid conditionality still works with China's rise as a major donor since the early 2000s. The results show that the democratizing effects of the OECD's development aid in Sub-Saharan African have diminished. The findings support the thesis that the democratizing effect of aid conditionality works only during a period when recipient countries do not have other alternative sources of aid, allowing donors to more credibly commit to enforcing conditionality.

China-Nigeria Relations

The Washington-based Stimson Center published in December 2016 a policy brief titled "Understanding the Emerging Relationship Between China and Africa: The Case of Nigeria" by Kimairis Toogood, senior adviser with International Alert in London.

The paper discusses the rationale for China providing assistance to Africa with a specific focus on Nigeria. It covers the drivers for the growing involvement of China in post-conflict reconstruction assistance in Nigeria and the consequences of these changing assistance patterns for reconstruction and peace building dynamics.

Estimating China's Foreign Aid

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute published in June 2016 a study titled "Estimating China's Foreign Aid II: 2014 Update" by Naohiro Kitano. While it does not focus on Africa, it does offer solid analysis about China's global foreign assistance program.

China's Aid to Africa

Brookings published on 19 July 2016 a brief article titled "Chinese Foreign Assistance, Explained" by Junyi Zhang, an exchange fellow at Brookings. It compares China's assistance with that of key OECD countries and emphasizes Africa.

China-Africa Agricultural Cooperation in West Africa

The South African Institute of International Affairs published in November 2015 a study titled "China-Africa Co-operation beyond Extractive Industries: The Case of Chinese Agricultural Assistance in West Africa" by Emanuele Santi and Maxime Weigert, both with the African Development Bank.

The paper offers an overview of the main trends in and obstacles to China-West African engagement in the agricultural sector, and places them in the context of West Africa's emerging needs.  The authors conclude that West Africa could learn a lot from China, which has built a strong domestic agricultural sector in the last two decades and developed it more rapidly than any other sector. 

External Financial Flows and Tax Revenues for Africa

The African Development Bank has just released its African Economic Outlook for 2015.  Chapter 2 titled "External Financial Flows and Tax Revenues for Africa" reports that private external flows in the form of investment and remittances now drive growth in external finance.  Foreign investments are expected to reach $73.5 billion in 2015.  Foreign direct investment is moving away from mineral resources and into consumer goods and services.  African sovereign borrowing is rocketing.  Remittances have increased six-fold since 2000 and are projected to reach $64.6 billion in 2015.  Official development assistance will decline in 2015 to $54.9 billion. 

Financing African Infrastructure

Brookings published in March 2015 a major report titled "Financing African Infrastructure: Can the World Deliver?" by Jeffrey Gutman, Amadou Sy, and Soumya Chattopadhyay, all at Brookings. 

The report begins with the premise that nowhere is lack of infrastructure more crucial and potentially transformational than in sub-Saharan Africa.  The three major sources of external financing are: private participation in infrastructure investments; official development finance from multilateral institutions and most of the OECD-DAC donors; and official Chinese financing.  The top recipients in sub-Saharan Africa of external financing in 2009-2012 were South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and Ethiopia.

This report offers recommendations on how to better exploit the political, technical, and financial synergies needed to address the infrastructure gap.

Russian Academy of Sciences Papers on Africa

The Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences published in 2014 conference papers titled Africa's Growing Role in World Politics.  Click here to see the table of contents.

The section on China-Africa relations contains the following papers:

--China's Role in Africa in the 21st Century by Tatiana Deych.
--Ethiopia and China: Two Former Empires Connect in the 20th Century by David Shinn.
--Can Africa Benefit from its Booming Cooperation with China? The State Capacity Factor in Comparative Perspective by Mamoudou Gazibo.
--China's Relationship with Sub-Saharan Africa: Despite Convergence with Industrialized Countries, Drivers or Structural Transformation? by Alice Nicole Sindzingre.
--China and Africa: Mutual Interest by Yury Smertin.

China's Economic Slowdown to Impact Africa

The Overseas Development Institute (ODI), a UK-based think tank, published a paper in September 2014 titled "Developing Countries and the Slowdown in China" by Judith Tyson, Jane Kennan, and Zhenbo Hou. 

The report notes that the IMF and OECD forecast a slowdown in China's gross domestic product (GDP) to 7.0 percent for 2015.  ODI estimates a slowdown towards 5 percent in GDP growth from 2015 if decisive policy action is taken and below 4 percent if it is not. 

The African countries most negatively affected will be those with relatively high exports to China by value as a percent of total exports.  African countries that export 10 percent or more of total exports by value to China include Mauritania, Zambia, Congo Republic, Cameroon, Gambia, Benin, and Ethiopia. 

Estimating China's Foreign Aid 2001-2013

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute published in June 2014 a solid analysis titled "Estimating China's Foreign Aid 2001-2013" by Naohiro Kitano and Yukinori Harada.  The JICA report deals with China's global aid and does not break it down by region.  In the past, China has said that about 45 percent of its aid goes to Africa. 

Untangling China's Aid to Africa

The IRIN Humanitarian News and Analysis, a service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, published on 17 September 2013 a piece titled "Untangling China's Aid to Africa." Although it contains some useful information, it does not "untangle" China's aid to Africa.