The New York Times published on 9 May 2025 a commentary titled "The Wars We Still Can Stop" by Cameron Hudson, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
As the Trump administration steps back from the Horn of Africa and guts existing diplomacy tools, it raises the question whether Washington has abdicated its peacemaking role in the region. The author asks, "how many American warriors do we intend to commit to wars we could have stopped before they started?"
The Congressional Research Service posted on 17 April 2025 a policy brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Attacks, and U.S. Policy" by Christoper M. Blanchard.
This paper provides a nonpartisan summary of developments concerning Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, the US response, and current US policy.
Foreign Policy published on 31 March 2025 a commentary titled "Congress Has a Choice on Sudan" by Gregory W. Meeks, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
The Trump administration cancelled emergency aid for Sudan on 26 February. The author, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is calling on Congress to resume humanitarian aid to Sudan, among other steps for dealing with the catastrophe.
The Hill published on 21 March 2025 an article titled "Internal USAID List Provides Snapshot of Trump Cuts" by Laura Kelly.
A 400-page list provided to Congress offers insights on the cuts the Trump administration is making to USAID. Ending some of these programs in the health sector will result in deaths overseas and endanger Americans in the United States while cuts in food programs will have a negative impact on American farmers who grow and supply the food for humanitarian programs. The goal of the Trump administration seems to be to destroy USAID.
Comment: The remnants of USAID will be transferred to the State Department. One important issue that is receiving little attention is the fact that the State Department is ill-equipped and understaffed to manage a variety of humanitarian programs.
Brookings published on 11 March 2025 a commentary titled "Can China Fill the Void in Foreign Aid?" by Yun Sun.
China's foreign aid has consistently been a fraction of America's. The highly publicized Belt and Road Initiative is mostly a commercial activity with a small percentage of development finance. China's global foreign aid budget for 2024 was $2.85 billion. Traditionally, about half the budget goes to countries in Africa. In 2023, USAID's global budget was about $42 billion, and the State Department provided another $19 billion.
Not only has the United States provided far more aid, but nearly all of it is in the form of grants while the largest percentage of China's aid is the concessionary part of loans. The dismantlement of USAID by the Trump administration will leave China with more influence in a smaller space, but it doesn't mean China can step in to fill the void. In addition, USAID's portfolio of humanitarian assistance does not overlap with China's capabilities. China will likely seek political, diplomatic, and economic returns for any increase in its assistance. Most significantly, Beijing will work to exploit the opportunity of American withdrawal to portray the US as the irresponsible great power.
AidData published in March 2025 an analysis titled "Into the Breach: Will China Step Up as the U.S. Retreats from Global Development?" by Samantha Custer, Bryan Burgess, and Narayani Sritharan.
AidData concluded that Beijing is unlikely to fully step into the breach by mimicking America's historical role as the largest aid supplier in sectors such as health, governance, and humanitarian assistance. China might approach the US dismantlement of USAID by doubling down on three existing lines of engagement: a public-private focus on a "Health Silk Road," aid-like training and capacity building of civilian government officials and security services, and China-led leadership of South-South cooperation related to emergencies and conflict.
The International Crisis Group posted on 5 March 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "The Aid System Is Collapsing. Now What?" with Alan Boswell and Sarah Pantuliano, CEO of the Overseas Development Institute.
This is a discussion of the Trump administration's dismantlement of USAID amid a trend of broader cuts to foreign aid by Western governments. Boswell and Pantuliano examine whether the abrupt funding freeze by USAID is collapsing aid operations on the ground and why that matters. They suggest we may be moving into a post-aid world that requires a more impactful form of investment. But in the meantime, disaster looms.
The US Department of State posted on 4 March 2025 a press statement titled "Designation of Ansarallah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization."
The United States designated Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis (Ansarallah) as a foreign terrorist organization, noting that their activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade.
The State Department also announced a reward of up to $15 million and possible re-location for information leading to the disruption of financial mechanisms of Ansarallah.
The Associated Press published on 4 March 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration again Labels the Houthis a 'Foreign Terrorist Organization'" by Matthew Lee.
This article adds context to the State Department announcement.
Semafor published on 3 March 2025 an article titled "China Won't 'Replace' USAID in Africa" by Yinka Adegoke.
As the Trump administration dismantles USAID and fires most of its personnel, Semafor spoke with China-Africa analysts who generally believed there would not be any notable change in China's overall approach in Africa in the short to medium term. While the US departure offers an opportunity for Beijing, China is not in a position to replace all the assistance once provided by USAID.
Comment: Strictly speaking, I agree with this conclusion, but China will step in and replace US funding in a few highly visible and popular projects, widely publicize the effort, and obtain enormous propaganda value at little cost to China as US influence erodes even further.
KGW News in Portland, Oregon posted on 21 February 2025 a two-minute video clip titled "Former US Ambassador Questions USAID Cuts by Trump Administration."
Former US ambassador Niels Marquardt discusses the important role played in US foreign policy by the US Agency for International Development.
Foreign Affairs published on 7 February 2025 an article titled "Don't Gut USAID" by Andrew Natsios, administrator of USAID during the George W. Bush administration.
The author argues the Trump administration stop work order for USAID has paralyzed US aid programs around the world, bankrupting fragile local aid groups and small businesses and putting lives at risk. Simply slashing vital programs is a huge mistake, but a far-reaching review and restructuring of US foreign aid is overdue. If USAID disappears, the Trump administration will cede the field to China and Russia.
The Wall Street Journal published on 10 February 2025 an article titled "How Much the U.S. Spent on Foreign Aid--and Where It Went" by Gabriele Steinhauser and Ming Li.
This is a useful analysis of the money spent by the United States Agency for International Development that the Trump administration is in the process of dismantling. It explains where the money goes, how it compares to foreign aid from other countries, how it is distributed, and which countries receive most of it.
The Pew Research Center published on 6 February 2025 a fact sheet titled "What the Data Says about U.S. Foreign Aid" by Drew DeSilver.
As the Trump administration dismantles USAID, this fact sheet summarizes how and where U.S. foreign aid has been used.
The Washington Post published on 4 February 2025 an article titled "Fear, Pain and Hunger: The Dire Impact of U.S. Funding Cuts in Africa" by Katharine Houreld and Rachel Chason.
The Trump administration's decision to cancel or suspend billions of dollars in foreign aid is deepening a humanitarian crisis and putting lives at risk across Africa. Countries like Sudan, already facing the world's largest humanitarian crisis, are experiencing the worst of the pain.
The New Delhi-based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses published on 25 September 2024 an analysis titled "The Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Impact on Yemen" by Prasanta Kumar Pradhan.
The Red Sea conflict has created new obstacles in the intra-Yemeni dialogue, slowing the pace of talks and further eroding trust among the parties. The delivery of humanitarian assistance to the people is also disrupted. These developments are worsening Yemen's political, security, and economic situation, making the prospects for peace more tenuous.
Tigrai Press posted on 28 July 2024 a one-hour podcast with me hosted by Bisrat Kebede. The conversation focuses initially on the election campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, implications of the election for Africa policy, and Project 2025. The remainder of the podcast deals with many of the ongoing issues in the Horn of Africa.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in June 2024 a paper titled "Towards Humanitarian Action that Intentionally Promotes Peace in South Sudan" by Simone Bunse, Caroline Delgado, and Marie Riquier.
The paper proposes four theories of change for international peacebuilding. The first relates to livelihood opportunities and keeping children in school. The second concerns the connectedness between diverse ethnicities and communities through conflict-sensitive volunteerism. The third consists in helping socialized program volunteers transition into leadership roles for greater transformational impacts. The fourth involves vertical and horizontal integration with broader development and peacebuilding efforts.
Reuters published on 16 April 2024 an article titled "UN Raises Over $600 mln to Boost Aid to Ethiopia."
A UN-hosted pledging conference raised $629 million in humanitarian assistance for Ethiopia, well short of the $1 billion goal. The biggest donor was the United States at $253 million, followed by the United Kingdom at $125 million.
National Public Radio posted on 15 April 2024 an interview with US ambassador Linda Thomas Greenfield titled "The U.S.Announces New Aid for Sudan, Where Civil War Broke Out a Year Ago."
The United States announced $100 million in new food aid for Sudan, bringing total American aid to Sudan to $1 billion since the conflict began a year ago.
This is a two and a half hour podcast titled "Great Power Rivalry and Competition in Africa: Ramifications for the Horn of Africa" that took place on 28 November 2023 and was facilitated by the Centre for Global Governance Studies at Louvain University in Belgium. It covered a wide range of issues concerning EU, US, Russia, China and middle power relations with Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Kenya.
Uoldelul Chelati Dirar, University of Macerata in Italy, and Harry Post, University of Exeter, chaired the podcast. Panelists included: Annette Weber, EU Special Rapporteur for the Horn of Africa; Lauren Johnston, University of Sydney; David Shinn, George Washington University; Wogene Teshome, Center for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation; Kalewongel Minale, Ethiopian Civil Society Organizations Council; and Fisseha-Tsion Menghistu, Ethiopian Civil Service University.
