Showing posts with label freedom of navigation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label freedom of navigation. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

What Next for Houthi Red Sea Attacks?

 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published on 16 July 2025 an analysis titled "Lethal Attacks Show Strengthened Houthi Control over Red Sea Transit" by Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi.  

The latest Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that resulted in the sinking of two commercial ships constituted an escalation of their tactics.  The scale and boldness of the attacks was unprecedented.  Moving forward, Houthis have the will and the ability to sink more ships.  

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Yemen's Houthis Attack Second Ship in the Red Sea

 The New York Times posted on 8 July 2025 an article titled "Attack on Cargo Ship in the Red Sea Kills 2 Crew Members" by Vivian Nereim and Nick Cumming-Bruce.  

Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked a second Liberian-flagged and Greek-owned ship this week in the Red Sea.  On this occasion, they killed 2 crew members and injured 2 others.  

Thursday, June 26, 2025

An Assessment of US Airstrikes on Houthi Rebels in Yemen

 The CTC Sentinel published in June 2025 an analysis titled "Feature Commentary: An Assessment of Operation Rough Rider" by Gregory Johnsen, an expert on Yemen.  

The United States carried out more than 1,100 airstrikes over 52 days this past spring against Houthi rebels in Yemen.  This article provides an assessment of that campaign known as Operation Rough Rider.  The US intelligence community reportedly concluded that the airstrikes caused "some degradation" but the Houthis were in a position to easily reconstitute, regroup, and rebound.  The Red Sea crisis is far from over.  

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

What Has the US Understanding with the Houthis Accomplished?

 The reason.com, a libertarian magazine, posted on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Trump Gets Bored with the War in Yemen" by Matthew Petti.  

President Trump claimed victory over the Houthis on 6 May, ensuring freedom of navigation through the Red Sea. A Houthi leader said, however, that direct attacks on Israel would continue.

Sourcing Journal posted on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Trump Says Houthis Will Cease Attacks on Red Sea Shipping" by Glenn Taylor.

President Trump said the Houthis have told us that "they don't want to fight anymore."  He added "they have capitulated."  It remains unclear, however, if the Houthis will stop attacks on all international shipping or just American and UK-flagged vessels. There was no mention of ending attacks on Israel.  

Friday, April 25, 2025

US Airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen: How Does It End?

 Vox published on 24 April 2025 a commentary titled "The US Has Quietly Gotten into Another War in the Middle East" by Joshua Keating.

In the current campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, there have been at least 250 US airstrikes.  The Trump administration says it is satisfied with the results so far.  On the other hand, there is a widespread belief among regional analysts that airstrikes alone will not defeat the Houthis.  While it is too early to declare the United States has entered a quagmire, it is also unclear how this US engagement ends.  

Where Is the War against the Houthis Leading?

 The New York Times published on 24 April 2025 a commentary titled "A Beleaguered Hegseth Wanders into His Forever War" by W.J. Hennigan.

The cost of the US military operation against the Houthis in Yemen is expected to reach $2 billion in May.  The Houthis have shot down 6 $30 million MQ-9 Reaper drones and continue to resist.  The author argues that the US will soon confront the same no-win decision that bedeviled Trump's predecessors in the Middle East: retreat or escalate.  

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

What Has Been Accomplished with War on Houthis?

 Foreign Policy published on 22 April 2025 titled "Trump's War on the Houthis Is Going Nowhere" by Keith Johnson.

 The Trump administration has spent more than $1 billion in airstrikes on the Houthis, who remain as defiant as ever.  The Houthis charge that the administration has waded into a "quagmire."  There has been little transparency from the US side concerning the airstrikes, which are burning through precision munitions at a rapid rate. 

 

Thursday, April 17, 2025

Is US Preparing to Support Yemeni Militias in Ground War Against Houthis?

 The Wall Street Journal published on 14 April 2025 an article titled "U.S. Strikes Spur Plans for Yemeni Ground War Against Houthis" by Benoit Faucon, Nancy A. Youssef, and Saleh al-Batati.

Yemeni militias sense an opportunity to relaunch a ground war against the Iranian-backed Houthis as a component of continuing US airstrikes on Houthi targets.  According to this report, the US is open to supporting a ground operation by Yemeni militia forces.

Comment:  Saudi Arabia, drawing heavily on Sudanese mercenaries, and troops from the United Arab Emirates tried without much success to take control of Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen in a war that lasted from 2015 to 2022.  If this new offensive goes forward, one hopes it learned the lessons of the largely unsuccessful earlier effort.  

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Visual Explainer of Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The International Crisis Group has just posted a visual explainer titled "The Houthis' Red Sea Attacks Explained."  It provides a nice visual summary of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea up to the recent response by the Trump administration.

Friday, March 28, 2025

US Airstrikes Weaken but Do Not Break Houthis in Yemen

 The Wall Street Journal published on 27 March 2025 an article titled "Houthis Weakened but Not Broken by First Round of Trump Strikes" by Saleh al-Batati, Carrie Keller-Lynn, and Sudarsan Raghavan.  

The Trump administration's airstrikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen have not yet achieved the US goal of deterring the US-designated terrorist group.  Since the US airstrikes began on 15 March, the Houthis have launched missiles and drones at the USS Harry S. Truman, an aircraft carrier stationed in the Red Sea.  Houthi missile launches are down but the Houthis have demonstrated in the past an ability to adapt to new challenges.  

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Will the US End the Threat Posed by Yemen's Houthi Rebels?

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "The Siege of the Red Sea" by Michael Froman.

Large scale US air strikes on the Houthi rebels in Yemen by the Trump administration have escalated the attacks beyond what was done during the Biden administration.  Nevertheless, the Houthis remain defiant, and the outcome of this campaign remains uncertain.  

Monday, March 24, 2025

Will Enhanced Air Attacks on Houthis Neutralize Threat?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 March 2025 a commentary titled "Trump Dramatically Escalates Military Strikes on Yemen's Houthis" by Keith Johnson and Rishi Ivengar.

Drawing on the views of military analysts, the authors question whether naval airpower can subdue the land-based Houthi movement in Yemen.  You probably have to use ground forces, and the US has no stomach for that.

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Do US Air Strikes Signal Game Over for the Houthis?

 Foreign Policy published on 19 March 2025 an analysis titled "Is This Game Over for the Houthis?" by Burcu Ozcelik and Baraa Shiban, both at the Royal United Services Institute.

The shift in US policy under the Trump administration from targeted air strikes to a more aggressive campaign marks a significant escalation in the attacks on the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthis see themselves as playing the role that Hezbollah once played.  

Most observers agree that a ground operation by US forces is unlikely, which means there is a clear limitation to how much the US can achieve through airstrikes alone.  The Houthis are counting on the US losing interest over the course of a protracted air campaign.  

Friday, March 21, 2025

Seeking Stability in the Red Sea Region

 The International Crisis Group published on 21 March 2025 an analysis titled "Calming the Red Sea's Turbulent Waters."

The lengthy study concluded: "Now that the ceasefire has collapsed, renewed salvos between the U.S. and the Houthis, as well as the Houthis and Israel, amid rising tensions between Western states and Iran, and the potential for a fresh upsurge in fighting in Yemen have cast a darkening pall over the region.  Lasting stability in the Red Sea will depend on steering these conflicts toward a peaceful conclusion." 

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

US Designates Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization

 The US Department of State posted on 4 March 2025 a press statement titled "Designation of Ansarallah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization."

The United States designated Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis (Ansarallah) as a foreign terrorist organization, noting that their activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade.

The State Department also announced a reward of up to $15 million and possible re-location for information leading to the disruption of financial mechanisms of Ansarallah.

The Associated Press published on 4 March 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration again Labels the Houthis a 'Foreign Terrorist Organization'" by Matthew Lee.

This article adds context to the State Department announcement.  


Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Houthis Appear to Be Observing Freedom of Passage Through Red Sea

 Reuters published on 3 February 2025 an article titled "Oil Tanker Attacked Last Year Crosses Red Sea as Houthi Ceasefire Holds."  

The Liberian-flagged crude oil tanker, Chrysalis, which was attacked last year in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels in Yemen, sailed safely through the waterway this week.  Following the ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthis announced an end to attacks on shipping not linked directly to Israel.  Disruption of shipping through the Suez Canal cost Egypt about $7 billion in revenue in 2024.  

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

The Red Sea Campaign against the Houthi Rebels Is Not Working

 Foreign Policy published on 6 January 2025 an article titled "The Houthis Are Undeterred" by Beth Sanner and Jennifer Kavanagh.

The US is burning through billions of dollars' worth of production of scarce munitions to combat the continuing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping using cheap drones and missiles.  Washington may be spending as much as $570 million per month on a mission that has had limited success.  

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Impact on Shipping of Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 24 November 2024 a paper titled "Blue Economy and the Mediterranean: How the Red Sea Crisis is Shaping the Region's Maritime Future (and What Is Next)" by Mario Mattioli.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping reduced transit through the Suez Canal by about 50 percent in 2023 and 70 percent in the first half of 2024.  Transit around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 3,000 to 3,500 nautical miles to voyages connecting Europe and Asia, increasing travel time by about 10 days.  This results in higher costs for fuel, wages, insurance, and freight borne by shipping companies.

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Egypt Linked to Horn of Africa Challenges

 World Politics Review published on 31 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt's Future Increasingly Passes Through the Horn of Africa" by Francisco Serrano.  

With both its water resources from upstream Nile River countries such as Ethiopia and Suez Canal revenue now dependent on events in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, this region has become a strategic focus for Egypt.  

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Yemen's Houthi Rebels Target Greek Ships

 Reuters published on 3 October 2024 an article titled "Houthis' Email Alert to Red Sea Ships: Prepare for Attack, with Best Regards" by Renee Maltezou and Jonathan Saul. 

Yemen's Houthi rebels sent on 2 October to at least six Greek shipping companies an email warning that their ships travelling through the Red Sea are at risk of attack, as if they did not already know that.  The Houthis have conducted about 100 attacks on ships in the Red Sea, sunk two, and seized another.  Almost 30 percent of the attacks have been against Greek ships.  The Houthis claim they are only attacking ships with ties to Israel, the United States, and United Kingdom, although this is clearly not the case.  

The Associated Press published on 1 October 2024 an article titled "Yemen's Houthi Rebels Launch Drone Boat that Hits Ship in Red Sea as Missile Strikes Another" by Jon Gambrell.

The Houthis attacked and hit with a drone boat on 1 October a Panamanian-flagged vessel in the Red Sea and fired a missile at a Liberian-flagged ship.