A Retrospective on Sudan-South Sudan Separation and the Future

 The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2026 an hour-long podcast titled "Sudan's Separation Fifteen Years Ago and Today's Disaster" with Alan Boswell, Alex de Waal, and Abdul Mohammed.  

Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed review the background of South Sudan's independence from Sudan and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.  They explained why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today's fragmented regional geopolitics.

Efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan and South Sudan today are experiencing greater involvement from the Gulf States and involve a larger number of competing actors.  Mediation today is extremely difficult.  The global environment is highly transactional.  The situation also has the possibility of becoming a regional war.  It is time for the African Union to step forward and play a stronger role in ending the conflicts.  

Analysis of Somalia's Governance Crisis

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 13 August 2026 an analysis titled "Trends and Shifts in the Somali Landscape: From Constitutional Dispute to a Crisis of Legitimacy."

Somalia is experiencing one of its most complex political crises since the adoption of the federal system in 2012.  These tensions coincide with growing friction between the federal government and federal member states, particularly Puntland.

The analysis concludes that the current governance crisis extends far beyond electoral arrangements or constitutional amendments.  Its roots reach into the very foundation of the fragile consensus upon which the federal state has been built in the last decade and a half.

Somali Public Opinion on Somalia's Political Future

 The Somali Public Agenda and Somali Dialogue Platform published in July 2026 a study titled "Navigating Political Transition: Citizens' Views on Elections, Legitimacy, and Governance in Somalia."

This study addresses how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability by means of a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents.  

The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.

The findings show that citizens express strong support for democratic reform in principle, but their preferences become more complex when democratic goals are weighed against peace, stability, term limits, press freedom, and public participation.

Sudan's Peace Process Is Trying to End the Wrong War

 African Arguments posted on 21 July 2026 a commentary titled "Sudan's Peace Process Is Negotiating a War That No Longer Exists" by Ezzat Khairi, a Sudan political analyst.

Diplomatic assumptions for ending the war in Sudan remain where they were in April 2023.  Peace initiatives approach Sudan as a two-sided conflict between a national army and a paramilitary rebellion.  That model no longer fits the war.  The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) now contain armed movements, tribal formations, ideological brigades, local defense groups, and commanders with their own constituencies and expectations of the postwar order.  The leaders of the SAF and RSF do not fully control the coalitions supporting them.

Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.  

They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war.  They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.

Generals Fight to Finish in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 28 June 2026 an article titled "'Digging with a Needle': Generals Stall Peace as Sudan's El-Obeid Burns."

The leaders of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are demonstrating no serious interest in bringing the deadly Sudan conflict to an end. Mediation and a ceasefire seem to be the last thing on their minds as the drone war heats up.   

Update on Sudan Conflict

 UN News posted on 26 June 2026 an article titled "Sudan: Window Is Closing to Prevent Wider Escalation in El Obeid."

This is a useful update on the situation in Sudan that summarizes the fighting, use of drones, external interference, regional tensions, and status of efforts to mediate an end to the conflict.

Turkey Tries to Mediate Somali Political Dispute

 Facility for Talo and Leadership Somalia, a policy institute and training center, posted on 9 June 2026 an article titled "Turkish Delegation Works to Ease Somalia Election Standoff."

A Turkish delegation visited Mogadishu in an effort to facilitate direct negotiations between President Hassan Sheikh and his political opponents concerning a postponed election.  Turkey has frequently intervened to mediate disputes in Somalia.  

Ethiopia: Failure of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.

This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  

Iran War Complicates Situation in Horn of Africa

 Foreign Policy posted on 18 May 2026 an article titled "The Gulf's African Aftershocks" by Liam Karr.

The war against Iran is deepening preexisting regional proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa and making mediation in Sudan of ongoing conflict more difficult.  It has also resulted in a reduction of Gulf State investment in the region and beyond.

China, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

 Borkena published on 11 April 2026 an article titled "Chinese Special Envoy to Horn of Africa Meets Eritrean President."

Ambassador Hu Changchun, China's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, met this week in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki.  While this appears to be a routine meeting, it follows a high-level Ethiopian visit to China to restructure its large debt.  Landlocked Ethiopia has also approached China concerning mediation with Eritrea on access to the Red Sea.

Ethiopia Moves Forward with Dams on Blue Nile; Egypt Objects

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia-Egypt" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr. 

Ethiopia has solicited bids from international companies to build three dams on the Blue Nile upstream from the existing Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam at a total cost of $10.5 billion over seven years.  Downstream Egypt opposes the construction and sent a letter from President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi to President Trump promising "a firm and decisive response" to any future dams.  Theoretically, the United Sates is trying to mediate the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia.

Limitations of Western Efforts to End War in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 6 April 2024 an analysis titled "Horrors in Sudan Highlight Deterioration of Western Diplomatic Corps."

There is little willingness by the West to end Sudan's conflict, but there is also little ability to do anything.  Western states have minimal leverage with the two major combatants: The Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  

Chinese-built Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline Under Attack

 The South China Morning Post published on 27 February 2026 an article titled "Why Beijing's US$4.5 Billion Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline Is Being Attacked by Rebels" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

A rebel group has been attacking the oil pipeline from Niger's oilfields to an Atlantic port in Benin in an effort to restore a former elected president to power in Niger.  China financed, built, and continues to have a management role in the pipeline, which provides a significant amount of revenue for Niger's military junta.  Although the attacks are not aimed at China, the situation poses a dilemma for Beijing and its non-interference policy. 

African Union Summit and Sudan

 Chatham House published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Summit Is an Opportunity for Decisive Action to End the War in Sudan" by Hubert Kinkoh.

The author argued that the 14-15 February African Union Summit was an opportunity for decisive leadership on Sudan. The AU has been increasingly peripheral to competing diplomatic tracks.  The AU must assert its primacy and enforce diplomatic coherence.  

Podcast with Germany's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 8 December 2025 a 38-minute podcast titled "Global Disorder, Horn of Africa Turmoil.  Can Europe Keep Up?" with Alan Boswell and Heiko Nitzschke, Germany's special envoy for the Horn of Africa based in Nairobi.  

Maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden looms large in the policies of Germany and Europe.  The Horn of Africa is increasingly being impacted by multilateralism.  Europe is only one among many engaged players in the Horn.  African countries in the region ultimately will determine the role that Europe plays.  Europe's strength is the reliability of its interest and engagement.  Its priority for the conflict in Sudan is to achieve a ceasefire and ameliorate the humanitarian crisis.

US foreign aid cuts sent shockwaves through European and Horn of Africa capitals.  European countries are trying to fill some of the gaps left by the United States, but they too are turning increasingly to private investment.  US policy in the region has also become more unpredictable.  A new order is emerging in the Horn, especially with greater involvement of the Gulf States and Türkiye.  Finally, Nitzschke expressed concern there is now a serious risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 

Sudan Armed Forces Rejects Quad Ceasefire Proposal

 The Associated Press published on 24 November 2025 an article titled "Top General Rejects US-led Ceasefire Proposal, Calling It 'the Worst Yet'" by Samy Magdy.

Sudan's top general, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, called the ceasefire proposed by the US-led Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE) unacceptable and "the worst yet" because it eliminates the Sudanese Armed Forces, dissolves security agencies, and allows the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to stay where they are.  The RSF says it has agreed to the truce proposal.

Ethiopia Seeks Sea Access through Eritrea

 The East African published on 31 October 2025 an article titled "Fluid Relations as Addis Seeks Sea Route Via Eritrea" by Aggrey Mutambo.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said he may turn to international mediation as Addis Abba seeks access to the Red Sea through Eritrea.  Ethiopian military leaders pursued a more strident position.  An Eritrean spokesperson dismissed the idea.  

Ethiopia's Culture of Confrontation and Aggression

 Ethiopia Insight published on 1 October 2025 a commentary titled "The Grammar of Aggression: Ethiopia's Culture of Confrontation" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.

The author argues that aggression and confrontation are a major feature of Ethiopian society.  These characteristics eclipse behaviors such as cooperation, mediation, and restraint.  As a result, force governs Ethiopian society.

The author concludes that "only by addressing the emotional, psychological, and cultural underpinnings of aggression can Ethiopia create the conditions for lasting social cohesion."

US Role in Nile Water Dispute

 The Conversation published on 26 September 2025 a commentary titled "Trump's Dip into the Nile Waters Dispute Didn't Settle the Conflict--In Fact, It May Have Caused More Ripples" by Fred H. Lawson, Northeastern University.  

The author reviews unsuccessful efforts by the Trump administration in 2019-2020 to mediate the Nile waters dispute involving Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.  He adds there is little indication that the current Trump administration is in any better position to solve the problem.