Podcast on Situation in Somalia and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 30 April 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Election Standoff and New Inflection Point" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.  

Issues discussed include Somalia's latest electoral crisis, tensions with federal member states, the future of the African Union mission in Somalia, the fight against al-Shabaab, and the growing role of external powers, especially Türkiye in Somali politics, and Israel in Somaliland.  

Omar Mahmood offers an especially clear explanation of the current electoral situation in Somalia.  Technically, 15 May is the end of the current government's term, but the situation is actually more complicated.  The current government argues it has one more year in power; the opposition says it ends on 15 May.  In any event, there will not be elections on 15 May.  

Navigating Federalism and Elections in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a policy brief titled "Somalia's 2026 Mandate Test: Navigating Elections and Federal Tensions."

This policy brief examines the federal government's evolving role in Federal Member States' elections, the competing interpretations of constitutional authority, and the political and logistical obstacles to direct voting.  

Somalia Risks Becoming a Jihadist State

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 November 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State" by Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a policy and research center focused on the Horn of Africa.

The author has extensive experience in Somalia and Somaliland.  He says al-Shabaab now controls about 30 percent of Somalia's territory, far more than the federal government in Mogadishu, and poses a serious threat of taking the capital.  The federal government is heavily reliant on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission for security.  

Somalia's economy is fractured and heavily dependent on three major ports of Kismayo, Mogadishu, and Bossaso while Berbera supports Somaliland.  The ports, in turn, empower different federal states that often defy central government authority.  The author concludes that Somalia faces a prospect that it may become an illiberal Islamist state.   

Somali Arms Flows Hinder Peace

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 September 2025 a commentary titled "Weapons of Discord" by Adam Daud Ahmed, Horn of Africa security analyst.

Somalia's federal system of government has resulted in the indiscriminate flow of arms to clan militias, which has exacerbated conflict in the country.  The author suggests the United Nations needs to introduce conditional arms controls.  

Avoiding Turmoil in Somalia's Electoral Reform Process

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 24 September 2025 an analysis titled "Electoral Showdown in Somalia: Avoiding Another Round of Turmoil."

Somalia's political opposition sees the government's electoral reform package as an effort to tilt the scales in the incumbent president's favor.  The ICG calls on the government and its opponents to accept a compromise.  

Ethiopia's Gedo Region Is New Flashpoint

 Ethiopia Insight published on 19 August 2025 a commentary titled "The Gedo Stratagem: Ethiopia's High-Stakes Proxy Politics" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.

Straddling the tri-border area of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, the Gedo region has become the epicenter of proxy wars, clan rivalries, and al-Shabaab resurgence, threatening to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. 

Somalia's Forum on Political Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 August 2025 an article titled "The National Consultative Forum and the Future of Somalia's Political Landscape."

In mid-June, the Somali government hosted the National Consultative Forum in an effort to build national consensus and resolve the current political stalemate.  The Forum failed to receive the level of regional or international endorsement the Somali government had anticipated.  Puntland and Jubaland states boycotted the Forum. 

Somalia's State-building Program under Pressure

 The Economist published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Somalia's State-building Project Is in Tatters."

For the past 8 months local forces from the federal state of Puntland, backed with airstrikes by the US and UAE, have been waging an all-out and successful war against the Islamic State. On the other hand, the central government has been losing ground in its battle with al-Shabaab and relations between Mogadishu and the federal states have deteriorated.  

Turkiye's Growing Presence in Somalia Results in Supporters and Detractors

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 16 June 2025 a commentary titled "Stakes and Potential Consequences of the Growing Turkish Engagement in Somalia."

Turkiye has been steadily increasing its security, political, and economic engagement in Somalia.  This has resulted in a debate among Somalis.  Some view Turkiye's presence favorably, while others express concerns over its depth and implications.   

Implications for the Region of Ethiopia-Somalia Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 26 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Somalia Rapprochement and Its Potential Geopolitical Implications."

Somalia's recent rapprochement with Ethiopia could lead to a more balanced foreign policy, reducing Mogadishu's involvement in regional power struggles.  Ethiopia has strengthened its military presence and security role in Somalia while Egypt will have a smaller presence than originally projected.  Ethiopia has frozen but not abandoned its MOU with Somaliland.  

Fixing Somalia's Political System

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2024 a report titled "18 Months to Fix Somalia's Broken Political Trajectory."

Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2026, giving Somalia 18 months to restore trust in the political system.  Without urgent reforms, Somalia risks further political instability.  The paper offers recommendations for building political consensus and international confidence.  

Somalia to Wage New Offensive Against Al-Shabaab

 Critical Threats published on 1 February 2024 an analysis titled "Somalia Aims to Expand Stop-Start Offensive Against Al-Shabaab" by Liam Karr.  

The Somali government says it is preparing to begin an all-out offensive against al-Shabaab in southern Somalia.  The goal is to eliminate al-Shabaab by the time the African Union peacekeeping force completes its scheduled withdrawal at the end of 2024.  The Somali government's inability to consolidate its control over central Somalia could undermine its efforts to take control of al-Shabaab-held areas in the south.

Land At the Center of Somali Conflict

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2023 a report titled "Somalia: Land Governance Review" by Surer Qassim Mohamed, Cambridge University.  

Land is a central point of contention in Somalia's fragmented political landscape and remains a significant driver of contemporary conflict.  Somalia's land governance architecture is a patchwork of unclear and overlapping authorities, overlapping claims to land use, large-scale land grabbing, and unclear land tenure.

This report aims to provide an overview of the current state of land governance in Somalia, examining the historical context, hybrid legal framework, and current practices around land ownership, access, and control.  

Is Ethiopian Prime Minister Using Best Tactics in Somali Region?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 June 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Abiy May Have Opened the Door to Al-Shabaab" by Muktar Ismail, an adviser to the Somali regional government.  

Ethiopia successfully repelled an al-Shabaab attack in Somali Region last year, but the jihadi group has more recently taken advantage of disgruntled Ethiopians and, according to one account, infiltrated between 600 and 1,000 into Somali Region.  Abiy has deployed more forces in Somali Region but their tactics are reportedly alienating local Somalis and contributing to al-Shabaab's ability to recruit more jihadists.  Abiy's timing of the dissolution of the controversial Liyu police in Somali Region may also be counterproductive.  

Somalia: A Review of 2022

 The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute just published a report titled "State of Somalia 2022 Year in Review." 

The report documents key developments that shaped Somalia throughout 2022 and provides analysis to support peace and state building in the country.  

View of Somalia's Campaign Against Al-Shabaab

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 24 March 2023 a 42-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Latest Battles Against Al-Shabaab" with Richard Atwood speaking to Omar Mahmood, ICG's senior analyst for East Africa.

The podcast reports that the Somali National Army's campaign, mostly in central Somalia, has reversed some of al-Shabaab's gains of the past few years, forcing the militants out of several areas, including some important towns.  Al-Shabaab continues to mount resistance in parts of central Somalia and still holds much of southern Somalia.  In recaptured areas, the government must ensure disputes among clans do not flare up again and demonstrate that the Somali government can deliver aid and over time reestablish services like health and education.  The al-Qaeda-linked insurgency has weathered previous offensives only to bounce back.  

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Demonstrates Resilience

 Reuters published on 7 March 2023 an article titled "Somalia's Al Shabaab Recaptures Base It Lost to Military Offensive."

The al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab overran a military base in southern Jubaland near Kismayu that it lost to the Somali National Army in January.  

Somalia: An Analysis of the Offensive against Al-Shabaab

 CTC Sentinel published in January 2023 an analysis titled "Can Somalia's New Offensive Defeat Al-Shabaab" by Stig Jarle Hansen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences.  

Somali government and regional forces have defeated al-Shabaab forces before only to see them reemerge as strong actors.  The key is to erode al-Shabaab's ability to infiltrate government-controlled areas and its ability to govern, tax, and implement "justice" in these areas.  

Podcast with Focus on Somalia

 The Horn of Africa Policy Center in Minneapolis broadcast an hour long podcast on Karamara TV on 10 July 2022 with Faisal Roble, an official with the city of Los Angeles, and me.  Ismail Qodax moderated the discussion.  

The focus of the discussion was on Somali internal political developments but included Somali relations with Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Gulf States, Turkey, and the West.  

Somalia: Podcast on Prospects for New President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud

 The International Crisis Group posted on 2 June 2022 a half hour podcast titled "How Somalia's Election Reshapes the Region" with Abdi Aynte, former journalist and former Somali minister of planning and international cooperation from 2015 to 2017 during President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's first term.

The author offers a positive account of the prospects for Hassan Sheikh's presidency.  He says Hassan Sheikh intends to repair relations with neighbors and pursue a pragmatic foreign policy.  He discussed Hassan Sheikh's approach to relations with neighbors, the wider region, and the West.