Implications for the Region of Ethiopia-Somalia Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 26 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Somalia Rapprochement and Its Potential Geopolitical Implications."

Somalia's recent rapprochement with Ethiopia could lead to a more balanced foreign policy, reducing Mogadishu's involvement in regional power struggles.  Ethiopia has strengthened its military presence and security role in Somalia while Egypt will have a smaller presence than originally projected.  Ethiopia has frozen but not abandoned its MOU with Somaliland.  

Turkey Mediates Ethiopia-Somalia Crisis but Al-Shabaab May Still Benefit

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published on 18 December 2024 an analysis titled "Africa File Special Edition: Ankara Declaration Reduces Ethiopia-Somalia Tensions but Leaves Unresolved Gaps" by Kathryn Tyson and Liam Karr.

Ethiopia and Somalia agreed on December 11 to work toward securing Ethiopian commercial access to the sea as part of a Turkish-mediated Ankara Declaration.  Ethiopia will likely withdraw from or at least pause its controversial naval base deal with breakaway Somaliland.  This, in turn, may result in a reversal by Somalia to exclude Ethiopian troops from the new African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia.  Nevertheless, the al-Shabaab terrorist organization could still benefit from these developments.