Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 The Sentry published in June 2025 a report titled "Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Tigray."

The war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region resulted in a humanitarian crisis of immense proportions.  War crimes were perpetrated by all parties to the conflict, but the nature of atrocities and war profiteering carried out by the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) was unmatched in scale and premeditation.  The EDF engaged in massacres, widespread sexual violence, and systematic looting, including of Tigrayan factory machinery, medical supplies and equipment, and cultural antiquities.      

Is a Tigray Region-Eritrea Alliance in the Cards?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "Strategic Reversals: Abiy's Miscalculation and the Tigray-Eritrea Realignment" by Yonas Nigussie, political economist.

The author argues that Tigray Region, sidelined by the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement, is fighting for survival.  Eritrea, haunted by fears of Ethiopian expansionism, seeks a strategic buffer.  Internal power struggles have fractured the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  One Tigrayan faction has signaled its willingness to align with Eritrea in an unholy alliance against the federal government of Ethiopia.  This could spark another bloody civil war.

Ethiopia: Unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 July 2025 a commentary titled "Red Sea Reckonings: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Unraveling of Pretoria" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.

The Pretoria Agreement, signed in 2022, has not resulted in stability in Ethiopia.  Instead, alliances are fraying, old rivalries are reigniting, and fragile new fault lines are emerging.  A deterioration in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea follows an effort by Addis Ababa to develop an outlet to the Red Sea.

Eritrean President Emerges as Winner of Ethiopia's Civil War

 The Sentry published in June 2025 an extensive report titled "Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Tigray."

This account documents Eritrean Defense Force support for the Ethiopian National Defense Force in their joint war to topple the Tigrayan Defense Force in Tigray Region from late 2020 until the signing of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022.  The study concludes that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has emerged as the clear winner of the post-conflict status quo.  

Rising Tension Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 The Reporter published on 28 June 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Between Two Fires: Ethiopia's Red Sea Ambitions, Eritrea's Proxy Games and the TPLF's Last Stand" by Mulat Gebreslassie, independent consultant and attorney.

The continued presence of Eritrean troops in Tigrayan border areas has become a flashpoint with Ethiopia.  The Eritrean troops have been there since Asmara supported the Ethiopian federal government in its war with Tigray Region that ended in 2022.  Now there are concerns that Eritrea is engaging with a faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Tigray Defense Forces, using them as proxies to counter the Ethiopian federal government, which seeks an outlet through Eritrea to the Red Sea.  Consequently, tension is rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

Ethiopia: Split in Tigray People's Liberation Movement Poses Major Challenge

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 15 May 2025 an analysis titled "Reorganizing Power in Tigray Region: Likely Implications for Peace and Conflict Dynamics in Ethiopia."

The analysis concludes that the toughest challenge for Tigray's interim administration is its ability to develop a unified and coherent strategy to advance an ideological assessment and internal reform of the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  Successfully aligning political objectives with the central priorities of the Ethiopian state and the urgent needs of the Tigrayan people will be critical for long-term stability.

The Evolution of Politics in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 April 2025 a commentary titled "The Battle for Tigray" by Ella Atsbeha, a Tigrayan writer based outside the region.  

The author revisits the war in Tigray, the Pretoria Agreement, and recent political developments in Tigray Region and within the TPLF.  He argues that the TPLF's resurgence in Tigray reduces the prospect of war with Eritrea.  

Implications for the Region of Ethiopia-Somalia Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 26 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Somalia Rapprochement and Its Potential Geopolitical Implications."

Somalia's recent rapprochement with Ethiopia could lead to a more balanced foreign policy, reducing Mogadishu's involvement in regional power struggles.  Ethiopia has strengthened its military presence and security role in Somalia while Egypt will have a smaller presence than originally projected.  Ethiopia has frozen but not abandoned its MOU with Somaliland.  

Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Toward War?

 The International Crisis Group published on 27 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Closer to War amid Tigray Upheaval."

Political turmoil in Tigray Region and growing tension between Addis Ababa and Asmara over landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the Red Sea are driving the current crisis in the Horn of Africa. 

Edging Towards Another Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict?

 World Politics Review published on 27 March 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Are Back on a War Footing" by Fred Harter, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

A power struggle in Tigray Region between Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda is the proximate cause of the current crisis in Ethiopia, but a more explosive dynamic is the escalating rivalry between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara.  In February, Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization, and Ethiopia has been moving military equipment and troops to its border with Eritrea.

Ethiopia: The Plot Thickens in Tigray Region

 The Economist published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "A Coup Attempt in Tigray Raises Tensions in the Horn."

A coup attempt by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Tigray Defense Forces in early March triggered a political crisis in Tigray Region.  Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki is reportedly arming the Ethiopian opposition and aligning with the Tigray coup plotters.  

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray in the Middle

 Ethiopia Insight published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy and Isaias Fight over Tigray" by Ermias Gebregziabher, who now resides in the United States.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hoped the war in Tigray would weaken the Tigray People's Liberation Front and neutralize the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.  The end of the conflict in Tigray has divided the previous unity of Tigrayans and reportedly resulted in both Eritrea and the government in Addis Ababa aligning with one of the Tigrayan factions.  It also raises the possibility of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

Looming Civil War in Ethiopia

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 13 March 2025 an analysis titled "Looming Civil War in Africa."

A battle for legitimacy between the Tigray People's Liberation Movement (TPLF) and the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) threatens to ignite a war in Tigray Region that could escalate into a proxy or regional war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

More Concern Over a Possible Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict

 Foreign Policy published on 12 March 2025 an analysis titled "Stop the Next Ethiopia-Eritrea War Before It Begins" by Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos.

The deterioration of the political and security situation in Ethiopia's Tigray Region is dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of undermining the Pretoria Agreement that ended the war in Tigray Region and of supporting insurgent groups elsewhere in Ethiopia.  Asmara perceives landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea as a casus belli and forerunner for efforts to return Eritrea to Ethiopian sovereignty.

US Support for Regime Change in Eritrea: A Bad Idea

 The conservative American Enterprise Institute published on 6 January 2025 a commentary titled "Eritrea Is the North Korea of Africa: America Must Act" by Michael Rubin.  

The author argues that while U.S. forces have no business in Eritrea nor would their deployment be wise, "the United States should openly support regime change."  He adds that incoming President Donald Trump should empower his National Security Council and Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs "to help Eritreans rid the world of one of its worst regimes."

Comment:  While Eritrea is poorly governed and no friend of the United States, U.S. government supported regime change is not the answer.  This is a task for Eritreans themselves.  Any concerted effort by the United States to change the government in Eritrea will almost certainly end badly and even be resented by many Africans who also have a negative opinion of the regime.

Somalia Reassures Eritrea It Supports Goals of Tripartite Agreement

 The Voice of America published on 26 December 2024 an article titled "Eritrean, Somali Leaders Discuss Stability Amid Regional Tensions" by Mohamed Olad Hassan.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met this week in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.  The two leaders reaffirmed the objectives laid out in the October Tripartite Summit between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt, aimed at enhancing cooperation and promoting regional stability.

There was growing concern in Eritrea that Somalia's Turkish-brokered agreement with Ethiopia had contradicted the Tripartite Summit results.

Ethiopia-Somalia Agreement Raises Concerns in Eritrea

 The Mogadishu-based Somali Guardian published on 26 December 2024 an article titled "Somalia's President Visits Eritrea to Address Afwerki's Concerns over Ethiopia Deal."

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki on 26 December in Asmara to respond to Eritrean concerns over Ethiopia's recent Turkish-brokered agreement with Somalia concerning an outlet to the Indian Ocean.  This is Hassan Sheikh's 13th visit to Asmara in less than three years.  

Ethiopia Ends One War as Another Looms

 The Economist published on 27 October 2024 an article titled "Another African War Looms."

The end of fighting in Tigray Region in 2022 did not settle the conflicts between Tigray and the war's two other main parties, Eritrea and the militias from Amhara Region.  In addition, much of the countryside in Amhara Region is now under the control of local Fano militia groups.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reached out to the Tigrayans, his former enemies, about a possible military alliance against Eritrea, his former ally in the war against Tigray.  Some Tigrayans reportedly support an alliance with Abiy while others are interested in an alliance with Eritrea aimed at overthrowing Abiy.  

Encircling Ethiopia

 The Hill published on 28 October 2024 a commentary titled "Shifting Alliances in the Horn of Africa: An Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia Axis" by Imran Khalid.  

The author argues that the recent summit in Asmara of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia was an effort "to encircle Ethiopia."  Egypt, frustrated with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, may be positioning itself for a proxy war, using Eritrea to destabilize its neighbor.  

An Anti-Ethiopia Alliance in Northeast Africa?

 Foreign Policy published on 16 October 2024 a commentary titled "The Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

The author argues that Egypt is aligning with Eritrea and Somalia to counter Ethiopia, but a direct conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia is unlikely with the Somali National Army preoccupied by its fight against al-Shabaab.