Podcast on Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict

 The International Crisis Group posted on 13 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On the Cusp of War" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.

The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is gaining control over larger parts of Tigray Region while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has faced reversals and appears to be moving towards asymmetric warfare.  The TPLF is more divided today that it was during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.

There are credible reports that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) have joined the TPLF in Tigray Region and it will now be difficult to convince the ENDF to stop pursuing both the TPLF and the EDF anywhere inside Ethiopia   It is less clear how extensive is the EDF incursion into Ethiopia.  Should this result in an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, geography and military capacity favor Ethiopia.  In the event of war, external support for both sides is problematic.  Eritrea might get some assistance from Egypt.

It is important for external powers to encourage both sides to deescalate the situation.  Eventually there needs to be dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The existence of external actors with separate agendas makes dialogue and a peaceful resolution of the dispute more difficult.  

Are Ethiopia and Eritrea Close to All-Out War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?" with Richard Atwood and Alan Boswell.

Eritrean Defense Forces are aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front forces against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and an opposition Tigrayan contingent.  The war in Tigray Region is nearing the Ethiopia-Eritrea border as ENDF troops advance and raises the possibility of extending into Eritrea.

Landlocked Ethiopia remains committed to obtaining permanent access to the Red Sea, although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says he will seek maritime access through negotiation and not force. Does the war in Tigray change the equation? 

Egypt Forms Anti-Ethiopia Coalition

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 8 October 2026 an analysis titled "Egypt Forms Anti-Ethiopian Coalition" by Liam Karr.

Egypt hosted on 3 October a regional summit with the leaders of Eritrea, Somalia, and the head of Sudan's armed forces.  The four countries agreed to the el Alamein joint declaration which did not mention Ethiopia but stated positions in direct response to Ethiopia's perceived policies in the region.

The joint declaration emphasized respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries in the region.  It stated that governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of the littoral states and denounced any action on dam construction that negatively impacts downstream countries.

Break in Ethiopia-Eritrea Ties Could Lead to Wider Conflict

 Aljazeera published on 2 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea Break Ties: Does the Conflict Risk Becoming Regional War?" by Stephen Quillen.

The severance of diplomatic ties by Ethiopia and Eritrea follows months of worsening relations, driven by landlocked Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea and allegations that Eritrea is backing the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia and Egypt have also engaged recently in tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats and continue to disagree on Nile water issues.  The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) are accusing Ethiopia of supporting the rival Rapid Support Forces in Sudan while Ethiopia accuses the SAF of supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia.

As the situation in the Horn of Africa moves increasingly out of control, the prospect for a wider regional conflict grows.  

Ethiopian Conflict Threatens to Engulf the Region

 Foreign Policy published on 30 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Return to War Threatens to Engulf the Horn of Africa" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.  

Ethiopia is facing a new civil war as a powerful El Nino threatens crop production in the country.  The author argues that Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan could be drawn in to the conflict.  

Fighting in Ethiopia Could Lead to Wider Conflict

 African Arguments posted on 26 September 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Foretold War Arrives" by Matthew de Waal.

Although the strength of Ethiopia's new anti-government alliance is questionable and the Tigray People's Liberation Front is divided, the current conflict in Ethiopia is occurring during a war in neighboring Sudan, Houthi attacks disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, and ongoing terrorist activity in Somalia.  The conflict in Ethiopia could metastasize into a regional conflagration.

Current Situation in Ethiopia

 Journalist Martin Plaut posted on 28 September 2026 a summary titled "A Brief Update on Ethiopia's 2026 War."

Fighting is escalating in Ethiopia.  On the Afar front, Tigray Defense Forces and allied Afar militants have gained the upper hand.  The military situation remains fluid along the Amhara-Tigray front.  Eritrean forces have established an alliance with the ruling party in Tigray.  Regional alliances are in flux.

Eritrea After Isaias Afwerki

 Twin Cities, Minnesota radio station Voices of Ethiopia posted on 21 August 2026 a commentary titled "After Isaias: Could Eritrea's Succession Crisis Destabilize the Red Sea?"

Since independence in 1995, Isaias Afwerki has been the center of power in Eritrea.  This commentary raises the question whether Eritrea can undergo a transfer of power without triggering a struggle among the military, security establishment, political elite, and competing regional interests--and whether a potential struggle could spill beyond Eritrea's borders.  Internal fragmentation, a proxy struggle along the Red Sea, and even normalization of relations with Ethiopia are all possible.

 

Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.  

They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war.  They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.

United States-Eritrea Rapprochement

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 21 May 2026 an analysis titled "The US-Eritrea Rapprochement: Signs and Prospects."

The United States seeks to leverage Eritrea's position on the Red Sea to address maritime tensions and threats, while Asmara is counting on American receptiveness to overcome its isolation and strengthen its capacity to navigate Ethiopian and regional pressures.

The analysis concludes that interaction between the United States and Eritrea will probably remain restricted to functional engagement rather than evolving into a comprehensive and enduring partnership.

US to Lift Sanctions on Eritrea

 Reuters published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "US to Lift Eritrea Sanctions as Red Sea Tensions Reshape Alliances, Document Says" by Giulia Paravicini.  

The United States is set to remove sanctions against Eritrea imposed by the Biden administration in 2021.  The decision is aimed at improving relations with Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, while sending a message to landlocked Ethiopia not to use military force to seek an outlet to the sea through Eritrea.  

US in Discussion with Eritrea over Possible Reset in Relations

 The Wall Street Journal published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "U.S. Seeks to Reset Ties with Reclusive but Strategically Vital African State" by Robbie Gramer and Summer Said. 

The Trump administration is exploring ways to reset relations with Eritrea, beginning with the lifting of sanctions.  The administration's special envoy for Africa, Massad Boulos, first met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki late last year in Cairo.  

The US war in Ian has elevated the importance of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, where Eritrea has a long coastline.  

China, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

 Borkena published on 11 April 2026 an article titled "Chinese Special Envoy to Horn of Africa Meets Eritrean President."

Ambassador Hu Changchun, China's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, met this week in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki.  While this appears to be a routine meeting, it follows a high-level Ethiopian visit to China to restructure its large debt.  Landlocked Ethiopia has also approached China concerning mediation with Eritrea on access to the Red Sea.

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

Is Ethiopia Preparing for War?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 25 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The analysis concludes that the Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethnic nationalist groups.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

Ethiopia Moves Troops Closer to Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign.  Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region.  In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces, 

People-to-People Solution to Tigray-Eritrea Differences?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 February 2026 a commentary titled "Can a People's Pact Heal a War of Elites?" by Giday Amare, a public servant in the health care sector.  

The author wants ordinary Tigrayans and Eritreans to come together at the people-to-people level in an effort to heal old wounds and overcome divisive actions of elites on both sides of the border.