Journalist Martin Plaut posted on 28 September 2026 a summary titled "A Brief Update on Ethiopia's 2026 War."
Fighting is escalating in Ethiopia. On the Afar front, Tigray Defense Forces and allied Afar militants have gained the upper hand. The military situation remains fluid along the Amhara-Tigray front. Eritrean forces have established an alliance with the ruling party in Tigray. Regional alliances are in flux.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopian Rebels Launch Major Offensive" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched an offensive against federal forces in northern Ethiopia. The fighting has expanded to the Tigray/Afar border region. The offensive likely aims to consolidate the TPLF's control of Tigray region and its rear supply lines.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Tigray on the Precipice" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces engaged in western Tigray on 1 August, each accusing the other of initiating the conflict. The battle ended quickly but tension remains high in the region.
Foreign Affairs published on 26 May 2026 an article titled "The War in Ethiopia Isn't Over" by Hilary Matfess, University of Denver.
As Ethiopia prepares to hold national elections on June 1, Tigray Region remains combustible, and insurgencies continue in several other regions.
Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.
This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.
The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia - Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
The Ethiopian Federal Government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) by one year on 8 April. This may buy time for both sides and avert a return to war in Tigray Region.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign. Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region. In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces,
The International Crisis Group posted on 3 February 2026 a commentary titled "Flare-up in Tigray Highlights Risk of More War in Northern Ethiopia" by Magnus Taylor.
A new outbreak of conflict between Tigray Defense Forces, on one side, and Amhara militias and federal troops, on the other, underscores an escalating standoff between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The federal government accuses the TPLF of forming a secret pact with Eritrea amid growing tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The article describes Tigray Defense Force efforts to take territory held by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Amhara militias. The heightened tensions could spark a broader conflict with Eritrea. Should war break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Egypt and the UAE would likely get pulled into it.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.
Growing political tension in Tigray Region is expanding into neighboring Afar Region. Tigray Defense Forces linked to the Tigray People's Liberation Front are trying to degrade the opposition Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), based in Afar Region near the border with Tigray.
Ethiopia Insight published on 21 October 2025 a commentary titled "Guns Over Governance: The Militarization of Tigray's Politics" by Gebreselassie Kiros Hailu, Mekelle University and member of the Tigray Independence Party.
The author argues that while Tigray's Defense Forces achieved significant battlefield victories during the war with central government forces, their lack of political and diplomatic engagement undercut broader strategic goals.
Military leaders then dominated the Tigray People's Liberation Front following the Pretoria Agreement that ended the war. Tigray's reconstruction and democratization have stagnated ever since then. The military has been synonymous with corruption and political opportunism. Tigray is at a perilous crossroads; the dream of a peaceful and democratic Tigray risks vanishing altogether.
Ethiopia Insight published on 11 October 2025 a commentary titled "'National Unity for Survival': From Words to Action" by Abrar Fitwi, Saint Mary's College in Indiana.
The author argues that Tigrayans can achieve unity only if they pursue a path that includes a reformed political program, credible leadership, a non-partisan army, and independent judiciary, media, and other institutions.
Ethiopia Insight published on 30 October 2025 a commentary titled "A Rejoinder to Abrar Fitwi's 'National Unity for Survival'" by Ermias Amare, an Ethiopian-American architect in New Jersey.
The author concludes that the "TPLF is too deformed to be reformed."
World Politics Review published on 28 August 2025 a commentary titled "In Post-War Ethiopia, Tigray's Female Veterans Fear Being Left Behind" by Mehret Berhe and Hilary Matfess.
Women comprised 20 to 30 percent of the Tigrayan Defense Forces during the recent civil war. Female veterans are concerned that they will not receive help in reintegrating into civilian life while victims of sexual violence doubt the perpetrators will be brought to justice.
The Sentry published in June 2025 an extensive report titled "Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Tigray."
This account documents Eritrean Defense Force support for the Ethiopian National Defense Force in their joint war to topple the Tigrayan Defense Force in Tigray Region from late 2020 until the signing of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022. The study concludes that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has emerged as the clear winner of the post-conflict status quo.
The Reporter published on 28 June 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Between Two Fires: Ethiopia's Red Sea Ambitions, Eritrea's Proxy Games and the TPLF's Last Stand" by Mulat Gebreslassie, independent consultant and attorney.
The continued presence of Eritrean troops in Tigrayan border areas has become a flashpoint with Ethiopia. The Eritrean troops have been there since Asmara supported the Ethiopian federal government in its war with Tigray Region that ended in 2022. Now there are concerns that Eritrea is engaging with a faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Tigray Defense Forces, using them as proxies to counter the Ethiopian federal government, which seeks an outlet through Eritrea to the Red Sea. Consequently, tension is rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 15 May 2025 an analysis titled "Reorganizing Power in Tigray Region: Likely Implications for Peace and Conflict Dynamics in Ethiopia."
The analysis concludes that the toughest challenge for Tigray's interim administration is its ability to develop a unified and coherent strategy to advance an ideological assessment and internal reform of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Successfully aligning political objectives with the central priorities of the Ethiopian state and the urgent needs of the Tigrayan people will be critical for long-term stability.
Ethiopia Insight published on 14 May 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray's Hijacked Transition" by Weldeslassie Hailai Abera, University of KwaZulu-Natal.
The author argues that a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael led an "illegitimate power grab" of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. He concludes that Tigray's future depends on a fundamental shift: bringing the Tigray Defense Forces under civilian control, dismantling ethnic-based patronage, and empowering youth and the diaspora.
Ethiopia Insight published on 10 April 2025 a commentary titled "The Battle for Tigray" by Ella Atsbeha, a Tigrayan writer based outside the region.
The author revisits the war in Tigray, the Pretoria Agreement, and recent political developments in Tigray Region and within the TPLF. He argues that the TPLF's resurgence in Tigray reduces the prospect of war with Eritrea.
The Economist published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "A Coup Attempt in Tigray Raises Tensions in the Horn."
A coup attempt by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Tigray Defense Forces in early March triggered a political crisis in Tigray Region. Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki is reportedly arming the Ethiopian opposition and aligning with the Tigray coup plotters.
Ethiopia Insight published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy and Isaias Fight over Tigray" by Ermias Gebregziabher, who now resides in the United States.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hoped the war in Tigray would weaken the Tigray People's Liberation Front and neutralize the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. The end of the conflict in Tigray has divided the previous unity of Tigrayans and reportedly resulted in both Eritrea and the government in Addis Ababa aligning with one of the Tigrayan factions. It also raises the possibility of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
