Ethiopia Insight published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray's Liberation Must End in Freedom" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare.
The author concludes that Tigrayan nationalism has failed not because it lacks the capacity to mobilize a people in defense of its survival but because it has never converted mobilization into a political order that citizens, rather than a party or battlefield command, actually govern.
Ethiopia Insight published on 24 August 2026 a commentary titled "Minority Protection Is Ethiopia's Federal Test" by Abdi Edriss, a human rights advocate in Toronto.
As Ethiopia engages in its national dialogue process, the author emphasizes that smaller ethnic and religious communities need institutions they can rely on when their interests diverge from those of the majority. A state becomes stronger when its minorities do not have to fear the majority.
Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2026 a commentary titled "Pretoria's Unfinished Peace Is Fueling Tigray's New Crisis" by Fikru Kidane, a Tigrayan analyst living in the United States.
The new tensions in Tigray Region are rooted in the aftermath of the Pretoria Agreement that ended the last war in Tigray. Key elements of the agreement remain unimplemented. The author argues that pressure to engage in new dialogue does not replace the need to put pressure on all parties to implement the Pretoria Agreement.
Foreign Affairs published on 26 May 2026 an article titled "The War in Ethiopia Isn't Over" by Hilary Matfess, University of Denver.
As Ethiopia prepares to hold national elections on June 1, Tigray Region remains combustible, and insurgencies continue in several other regions.
Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.
The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.
This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.
Ethiopia Insight published on 15 December 2025 a commentary titled "Medieval Myths to Modern Ethiopia" by Muktar Ismail.
The author disputes the myth of the Solomonic dynasty. He concludes that Ethiopia faces a critical challenge in creating a shared narrative that embraces its diverse population. This requires moving away from its Solomonic mythology towards a more inclusive fact-based dialogue.
Ethiopia Insight published on 18 October 2025 a commentary titled "Only in Shards: Ethiopia's Three Decades of Ethnic Federalism" by Kinfu Adam.
The author argues that Ethiopia's experiment in ethnic federalism has been a high-risk venture in state fragmentation. It has fueled displacement, hardened divisions, and strained state capacity. Ethnic federalism entrenches insecurity rather than alleviating it. If there is a path forward, it lies in a courageous reimagining of the federal order.
Ethiopia Insight published on 3 October 2025 a commentary titled "Medemer at the Crossroads" by Abdulfetah Khalil, socio-economic researcher based in Toronto.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's political philosophy known as Medemer is at a crossroads. The author asks if Medemer complements or undermines Ethiopia's system of ethnic federalism. The author concludes that Medemer "must be reimagined not as a state ideology imposed from above, but as a process of consensus-building within the federal framework." He adds that "Medemer can become either a tool of central domination or a practice of federal renewal."
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Federal Future Tested in Western Tigray" by Batseba Seifu, co-founder of GEMTigray.
Western Tigray has become the fault line that will decide whether Ethiopia holds together as a federal state, or fractures following the divisions left by the war between Tigray Region and the central government. This commentary focuses on history, cartography, and demography related to the issue of Western Tigray.
Ethiopia Insight published on 28 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's National Dialogue Seeks to Smooth the Path to Constitutional Reform" by Leul Estifanos.
The commentary discusses the status of Ethiopia's three-year-old National Dialogue Commission with a focus on the prospects for amending the constitution.
Ethiopia Insight published on 13 September 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Endless Constitutional Chasm and Authoritarian Abyss" by Leul Estifanos, freelance court reporter.
There seems to be a consensus that Ethiopia needs to make changes in its 1995 constitution, but there is no consensus on what the final document should look like. Finding a consensus is even more difficult in Ethiopia's current political environment. The situation today is exacerbated because even the existing constitution is not being fully implemented.
Ethiopia's The Reporter published on 3 February 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Eroding Political Transition: Can Multiple Interlocking Crises Be Overcome?" by Bereket Tsegay, University of London.
Interlocking political, security, and economic crises threaten the future of Ethiopia. The author argues that Ethiopia must embrace a robust and holistic strategy if it expects to get back on track to a path of prosperity.
Ethiopia Insight published on 29 January 2024 a commentary titled "Is Ethiopia's Disintegration an Inevitable and Necessary Evil?" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University.
The author begins by stating that "the real question is not if Ethiopia will disintegrate, but when and how." He argues that the international community should help organize "a smooth and orderly birthing of new democratic states." He adds: "Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process."
Comment: It appears that the author bases his analysis largely on Ethiopia's post-World War II history and tends to ignore the previous 2,000 years. While Ethiopia is a deeply troubled country today and possibly at a crossroads, there is no inevitability about its disintegration. It has weathered equally difficult periods in the past, albeit not with the same international borders as today. The idea that outside powers could help birth an undetermined number of independent, economically viable, democratic states strikes me as fantasy.
The Rift Valley Institute and the Peace Research Facility published in 2023 a study titled "Religion in Contemporary Ethiopia: History, Politics and Inter-Religious Relations" by Jorg Haustein, Abduletif Kedir Idris, and Diego Maria Malara.
Religion has made a political comeback in Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and is once again part of the political discourse. Religious affiliation in Ethiopia is part of a multi-layered nexus incorporating ethnicity and other, secondary, social characteristics, such as occupation or class.
The study provides an overview of the politics of religion since the making of the modern Ethiopian nation state in the nineteenth century. It surveys the four most important faith groups in Ethiopia--Orthodox Christianity, Islam, Protestantism/Pentecostalism, and traditional religions. Finally, it explores inter-religious relations.
Ethiopia Insight published on 8 January 2024 a commentary titled "Peace in Ethiopia's Oromia Will Only Come Through Genuine Self-rule" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter living in Burayu, Oromia.
This is a detailed, if complex, discussion of the politics of Oromia that offers suggestions for dealing with the current conflicts, which seem to be dominated by extreme ethnic nationalism among Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.
Ethiopia Insight published on 7 December 2023 a commentary titled "Hararis in Harar Are Being Erased and Dispossessed" by Abdullah Sherif, a leader of the Harari community in Toronto.
The author argues that Oromo extremism poses an existential threat to Hararis in Harar. Given their small numbers (well under one percent of Ethiopia's population), constant intimidation, and abandonment by the central government, Hararis in Harar are suffering in silence. Harari culture is being appropriated, its land and property stolen, and politics undermined.
Joseph Pisenti, an American YouTuber in Dallas, Texas, who uses the name RealLifeLore recently posted a 50-minute video titled "Why Ethiopia Is Preparing to Invade Eritrea Next."
This is a summary of Ethiopian history, demography, religion, and ethnicity leading up to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's expression of the need for landlocked Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea.
The Conversation published on 26 November 2023 a commentary titled "What Is Federalism? Why Ethiopia Uses This System of Government and Why Its Not Perfect" by Bizuneh Yimenu, University of Birmingham.
The primary aim of Ethiopian federalism is to accommodate the country's diverse ethnic groups. The author argues that federalism, in spite of its imperfections, remains the best political system for Ethiopia.
The International Crisis Group posted on 16 November 2023 a 38 minute podcast titled "End of One War, Start of Another in Ethiopia" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.
Conflict has ended in Tigray Region but many Tigrayans remain under arms, borders among ethnic groups are not defined, some Eritrean forces remain in Tigray, and many humanitarian problems continue to fester. Subsequent rebellions in Amhara Region and Oromia threaten peace again in Ethiopia. Eritrea remains concerned about the continuing presence of the TPLF and slow pace of demobilization in Tigray. There has been a widening gap between Asmara and Addis Ababa, exacerbated by Abiy Ahmed's desire for access to the Red Sea.
African Arguments published on 31 October 2023 a commentary titled "Will the Rebellion in Amhara Unravel the Ethiopian State?" by Mohamed Kheir Omer, African-Norwegian researcher and former member of the Eritrea Liberation Front.
The author argues that the conflict in Amhara Region could have devastating consequences in unraveling the country. Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki allegedly backs the Amhara with training and arms.
