An Insider Disects the Collapse of the Tigray People's Liberation Front

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2025 a commentary titled "TPLF Insider Blows Lid Off Party's Long Road to Collapse."

An anonymous former Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leader discusses the unraveling of the party.  The insider argues that the TPLF's problems were not caused by any one person but were a cumulative disaster decades in the making.

Ethiopia: Oromia and Ethnic Nationalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 January 2024 a commentary titled "Peace in Ethiopia's Oromia Will Only Come Through Genuine Self-rule" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter living in Burayu, Oromia.

This is a detailed, if complex, discussion of the politics of Oromia that offers suggestions for dealing with the current conflicts, which seem to be dominated by extreme ethnic nationalism among Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.  

Ethiopia: Amhara Nationalism and Upcoming Elections

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 7 June 2021 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalism at the Polls in Ethiopia" by an anonymous author. 

This account describes the recent evolution of Amhara nationalism and how it might play out during elections in Ethiopia later this month.  

What Is Driving Ethiopia's Ethnic Conflicts?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 25 November 2019 a report titled "What Is Driving Ethiopia's Ethnic Conflicts?" by Semir Yusuf, ISS Addis Ababa.

The author concludes that decades of exclusivist political arrangements have contributed to a steady rise in ethnic consciousness, with the state and ruling party becoming increasingly incoherent. This has increased ethnic disagreement.

Ethiopia: Regional Land Disputes Add to Displaced Persons

Ethiopia Insight published on 8 March 2019 an analysis titled "Benishangul Conflict Spurred by Investment, Land Titling, Rumors" by Mehdi Labzae, French Center for Ethiopian Studies.

A land dispute involving the Gumuz and Oromo people in western Ethiopia has resulted in the displacement of more than 150,000 persons, mostly Oromo. A donor-sponsored land registration program and agricultural investment contributed to the conflict.

Prescription for Managing Ethiopia's Transition

The International Crisis Group published on 21 February 2019 a report titled "Managing Ethiopia's Unsettled Transition."

The report provides ideas for managing Ethiopia's democratic transition and dealing with ethnic conflict.

Can Ethiopia's EPRDF Be Saved?

Ethiopia Insight published on 3 October 2018 a commentary titled "The Old EPRDF Is Dead, Can Its System Be Saved? Five Steps To Save the Federation" by Mehari Taddele Maru, consultant to IGAD, AU and UN.

The author explains why the EPRDF federal system is in danger and suggests a way to avoid a drift towards majoritarian rule and worsening instability.

Ethiopia: Reform and Local Conflicts

African Arguments posted on 19 June 2018 a commentary titled "Strains Down South: Ethiopia's National Reforms Rouse Local Tensions" by Wolde Tadesse, Jason Mosley, and Angela Raven-Roberts.

Local conflicts in Ethiopia are being exacerbated by the reform policies of new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The authors urge the government to draw on local, cultural, and historical models in the Ethiopian context to resolve the conflicts peacefully.

Ethiopia: Background to Protests

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 20 March 2018 an analysis titled "The Many Layers of the Ethiopia Crisis" by Mohammed Ademo, a freelance journalist.

The author argues that the answer to Ethiopia's malaise is greater democratic space and national reconciliation and removal of the state of emergency. It is also necessary to address the root causes of the protests in Ethiopia: the inequity within the governing coalition and the need for legitimacy.

Resignation of Ethiopia's Prime Minister

African Arguments published on 15 February 2018 an analysis titled "Ethiopia: The Relentless Protests that Forced the Prime Minister to Resign" by Gonje De Wadla.

The author argues that the recent resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the release of some political prisoners will not end the protests in Ethiopia.

2016 Protests in Ethiopia

The Rift Valley Forum published in November 2016 a summary report titled "A Year of Protests in Ethiopia."

The report emphasized that grievances specific to the Oromo and Amhara people and regions converged into a youthful protest movement, which had no clear political agenda or leadership. A reshuffled inclusive and technocratic cabinet brought some political breathing space for the government but did not address the underlying issues driving the protests.

Protests in Ethiopia: Criticism for Consideration

African Arguments posted on 7 October 2016 a critique titled "Ethiopia: How Popular Uprising Became the Only Option" by Michael C. Mammo, PhD student at the University of Birmingham.

This is a highly critical but articulate commentary on the factors leading up to the protests in Ethiopia and the manner in which they have been handled by the government of Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's Tsadkan Gebre Tensae Initiates Important Discussion on Future of Country

Tsadkan Gebre Tensae, Chief of the General Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces from 1991 to 2001, one of the founders of the TPLF and confidant of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi until their falling out early in this century, submitted in July a comprehensive paper to HornAffairs Amharic whose title translated as "The Political Conditions of Our Country and Recommendations." This is one of the most important critiques of governance in Ethiopia since 1991 because of the person who wrote it, the fact that he remains in Ethiopia, and the general thoughtfulness of the paper. It launched a discussion among Ethiopians that continues to the present day. The paper and comments about it should also be read by non-Ethiopians who are interested in Ethiopia and want to see it succeed as a country. HornAffairs English published an abridged version of General Tsadkan's paper on 4 August 2016.

General Tsadkan argues that the fuzzy boundary between the EPRDF and the government is one of the major problems facing the political system. He is concerned about the lack of a check and balance system and calls for a more level political playing field. He urges that Ethiopia hold free, fair, regular, democratic elections with independent international observers. He is critical of some elements of the economic system but ambivalent about the theory that should guide Ethiopia except that he does not believe the neo-liberal political economy is a viable option. He concludes that Ethiopia is at a crossroads.

Professor Messay Kebede, who has been at the University of Dayton since 1998, provided one of the first and most articulate responses to General Tsadkan's paper in a review submitted to Ethiomedia on 28 July 2016.

General Tsadkan then responded to Messay Kebede on 31 July 2016 in an English-language submission to HornAffairs English.

To its credit, the EPRDF has allowed this discussion to continue. It will be even more important if it takes the discussion seriously.

Ethiopia Confronts Ethnic Protests

World Politics Review published on 30 August 2016 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Regime Prioritizes Power over Reform as Ethnic Protests Continue" by William Davison, a freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

The author questions whether the ruling EPRDF is sufficiently flexible to deal successfully with the grievances raised during the recent ethnic protests.

Analysis of Ethiopia's 2015 Elections

The January 2016 edition of Journal of Democracy published an article titled "The 100% Election" by Leonardo R. Arriola, University of California Berkeley, and Terrence Lyons, George Mason University. 

The authors concluded that "given the results of Ethiopia's 2015 general election, we cannot expect the transition from Meles Zenawi to Hailemariam Dessalegn to lead to political liberalization in the near or medium term."