Ethiopia: Is Tigray Following the Eritrean Example?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Eritrea Script Exposes Ethiopia's Unity Farce" by Asfaw Gedamu, independent writer.

This is a critique of the National Dialogue process now underway in Ethiopia, and especially the absence of Tigray from the Dialogue.  The author discusses the increasing distance between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia and draws parallels with Eritrean independence.  He concludes that the argument for Tigray remaining within the federation is becoming harder to sustain.   

Pre-election Challenges Facing Ethiopia

 Foreign Affairs published on 26 May 2026 an article titled "The War in Ethiopia Isn't Over" by Hilary Matfess, University of Denver.

As Ethiopia prepares to hold national elections on June 1, Tigray Region remains combustible, and insurgencies continue in several other regions.

Is the Horn of Africa Destined for Another Cycle of Violence?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 24 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Looming War to Eclipse the Horn's Past Conflicts" by Nebiyu Daniel Meshesha, former Ethiopian diplomat.

The author argues that earlier dynamics in the Horn of Africa that once fractured states and redrew borders now risk drawing Ethiopia into a similar spiral, with potentially profound consequences for the region.  The Horn of Africa may once again find itself trapped in a cycle of conflict.

Ethiopia: Conflict in Oromia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Under Two Flags: Life in Dembi Dollo" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter based in Oromia.

The town of Dembi Dollo in western Oromia is at the center of the region's long conflict between the Ethiopian state and Oromo nationalism.  The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is waging an insurgency against the federal government.  Dembi Dollo town remains under government control because of heavy security while the OLA dominates the countryside.  Dembi Dollo is griped with fear.  

Ethiopia: Peace Remains Elusive in Oromia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 October 2024 a commentary titled "Peace--and Justice--Remain Elusive in Oromia" by Siyanne Mekonnen, freelance journalist based in Ethiopia.

There is no end in sight to the conflict in Oromia.  The way forward requires all stakeholders to come to the table and rectify historical privileges that have contributed to the marginalization of certain ethnic groups.  The author concludes such a harmonious outcome is a distant dream.

Ethiopia Releases 7 Oromo Liberation Front Prisoners

 The Voice of America published on 5 September 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia Releases Opposition Politicians from Prison" by Tsehay Damtew.

Ethiopia released this week 7 Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) members who have been in prison since 2020.   The United States welcomed the release of the OLF prisoners.

Is Conflict in Ethiopia's Amhara Region Leading to Civil War?

 Foreign Policy posted on 6 March 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Amhara Conflict Could Spark Civil War" by Adem Kassie Abebe, vice president of the African Network of Constitutional Lawyers, and Zelalem Moges, an Ethiopian international lawyer.  

The decentralized Amhara Fano militia has been in conflict with the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) since August 2023.  The militia proclaims to protect Amhara interests by working to transform what it perceives as an anti-Amhara sociopolitical system.  There is a common belief among Amhara today that there is a deliberate effort to undermine them.  The authors argue that the conflict between the ENDF and Fano militia is reaching a tipping point, and call for a national political dialogue to forestall such a possibility.  

Ethiopia: Oromia and Ethnic Nationalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 January 2024 a commentary titled "Peace in Ethiopia's Oromia Will Only Come Through Genuine Self-rule" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter living in Burayu, Oromia.

This is a detailed, if complex, discussion of the politics of Oromia that offers suggestions for dealing with the current conflicts, which seem to be dominated by extreme ethnic nationalism among Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.  

Ethiopia: Political Violence in Amhara Region and Aimed at Amhara

 The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) published on 10 August 2023 a fact sheet titled "Crisis in Ethiopia's Amhara Region."

Political violence in Amhara Region has reached new levels of intensity.  Persistent insecurity in Amhara Region poses a significant threat to the federal government, the Abiy administration, and Ethiopia's stability.  This report documents incidents in Amhara and those aimed at Amhara in other regions.  

Ethiopia: Progress in Tigray, Not So Much in Oromia

 World Politics Review published on 12 June 2023 a commentary titled "The Tigray War Is Over.  Ethiopia's Conflict in Oromia Is Raging On" by Bereket Diriba, researcher in peace building.

Since the formal end of the war in Tigray Region in November 2022, Addis Ababa has determined to resolve the conflict in Oromia with military force.  The conflict between the Oromo Liberation Army and the Ethiopian government is a dispute over power and both sides' competing claims of legitimacy to represent the Oromo people.  Peace talks on Zanzibar failed to reach an understanding on key political matters, although they are expected to resume.  

Ethiopia: Oromia Peace Prospects Dim

 Ethiopia Insight published on 24 May 2023 a commentary titled "Oromia Peace Prospects Dimmed by Renewed Fighting" by Ermias Tasfaye.

Peace talks on Zanzibar between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army have been dimmed by renewed fighting in Oromia.

Ethiopia: Analysis of Recent Conflict in Western Oromia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2023 a paper titled "Ethiopia Conflict Trend Analysis: Western Oromia" by Damena Abebe.

The paper provides an analysis of the conflict trends in the western part of Ethiopia's Oromia regional state over the second half of 2022 and first two months of 2023.  It highlights the potential for negotiations between the regional and federal governments and the Oromo Liberation Army.  

Ethiopia: Negotiations with the Oromo Liberation Army?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 March 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Government and the Oromo Liberation Army Edge Towards Talks" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter based in Oromia.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that a committee has been formed to negotiate with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has been seeking autonomy for Oromia.  The OLA left open the possibility of internationally-mediated peace talks.  

Ethiopia: Will US National Interests Trump Accountability?

 Foreign Policy published on 14 March 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Is Not Ready for Transitional Justice" by Seifudein Adem, Doshisha University, and Abadir M. Ibrahim, Harvard Law School.  

The authors argue that Ethiopia is unprepared for implementing a transitional justice process in the aftermath of a brutal civil war.  The United States may be setting itself up to reengage with Ethiopia on the grounds of national interest  that trump accountability for atrocities during the war.  

Ethiopian History Haunts Nation-building Efforts

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 January 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Nation-building Is Haunted by Its Troubled History" by Muktar Ismail, former advisor to the Somali Regional government and former UN staff member.

The author argues that Ethiopia has not had a history of a deliberate program to build national unity.  Internal conflicts that arose over a century ago continue to this day.  The wars in Tigray and Oromia are examples of this history.  Ethiopia needs to launch a transitional justice and reconciliation process with the aim to end its culture of impunity around past and present abuses.  

Ethiopia: Finding a Future for Tigrayan Soldiers Is Important Part of Peace Process

 The Washington Post Monkey Cage published on 18 November 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Peace May Depend on Post-Conflict Plans for Tigray Soldiers" by Sally Sharif, Simon Fraser University.  

Disarming, demobilizing, and reintegrating (DDR) Tigrayan soldiers into Ethiopian society will be one of the most important and challenging factors facing the peace process.  The DDR program is unlikely to succeed without technical support and funding from international sources.  

Ethiopia's Other War in Oromia

 Foreign Policy posted on 16 November 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Other War: As Peace Talks Progress in Tigray, Tensions Are Mounting in Oromia" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

Hostilities between the Oromo Liberation Army and Ethiopian central government forces are causing increasing casualties in Oromia Region.  The rise of Oromo nationalism and resentment of Amhara minority communities inside Oromia contribute to the mounting tension.  

Suggestions for Relaunching Ethiopian Peace Process

The US Institute of Peace published on 18 October 2022 a statement titled "Ethiopia's Civil War Is Raging.  How Can It Get on Track Toward Peace?" by Johnnie Carson and Alex Rondos.

The authors offer suggestions for restarting the peace process to end the civil war in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia: Disagreement on Persons Behind Massacre of Amhara in Oromia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 July 2022 a commentary titled "Amhara Civilians Were Massacred in Tole, But Questions Remain" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

While it is generally agreed that a massacre of Amhara took place in Oromia, there is increasing disagreement as to the party responsible for the massacre.  

Ethiopia: Oromo Activist Urges Reconciliation after Release from Prison

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 June 2022 a commentary titled "Jawar Mohammed: From 'la Luta Continua' to Peace Preacher" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

The government of Ethiopia released from prison early this year Jawar Mohammed, outspoken Oromo nationalist and political activist.  On the few occasions that he as spoken since his release, he has encouraged a democratic and unified Ethiopia.  He called for preserving the territorial integrity of Ethiopia, democratization of the political system, creation of an inclusive political community, and making Ethiopia a home for everyone.