House Foreign Affairs Committee Hearing on Ethiopia

 The US House of Representatives Subcommittee on Africa held on 30 November 2023 a one hour and 20 minute hearing titled "Ethiopia: Promise or Perils, The State of U.S. Policy."  The two witnesses were Mike Hammer, special envoy to the Horn of Africa, and Tyler Beckelman, deputy assistant administrator for Africa in USAID.  Nine members of Congress made comments and asked questions.  

This was a wide ranging discussion of US policy towards Ethiopia.  Some of the questioning suggested deep concerns about developments in Ethiopia and the US policy response.  Hammer emphasized that the US believes there is no military solution to the ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia and that Washington will continue to press for accountability of human rights violations.  He also noted that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has assured the US that Ethiopia is seeking a peaceful way to achieve access to the sea.  

Ethiopia: Analysis of Recent Conflict in Western Oromia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2023 a paper titled "Ethiopia Conflict Trend Analysis: Western Oromia" by Damena Abebe.

The paper provides an analysis of the conflict trends in the western part of Ethiopia's Oromia regional state over the second half of 2022 and first two months of 2023.  It highlights the potential for negotiations between the regional and federal governments and the Oromo Liberation Army.  

Food Insecurity in South Sudan

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in January 2023 a study titled "Facing Food Security: Promises and Pitfalls of the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus in South Sudan" by Kristina Tschunkert, Caroline Delgado, Vongai Murugani, and Marie Riquier.  

The study explores the potential for donor governments and institutions to support the operationalization of the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding nexus to respond to the food insecurity crisis in South Sudan.  

Ethiopia: Finding a Future for Tigrayan Soldiers Is Important Part of Peace Process

 The Washington Post Monkey Cage published on 18 November 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Peace May Depend on Post-Conflict Plans for Tigray Soldiers" by Sally Sharif, Simon Fraser University.  

Disarming, demobilizing, and reintegrating (DDR) Tigrayan soldiers into Ethiopian society will be one of the most important and challenging factors facing the peace process.  The DDR program is unlikely to succeed without technical support and funding from international sources.  

Lessons from a Decade of South Sudanese Independence

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 29 June 2021 an analysis titled "Lessons from a Decade of South Sudanese Statehood" by Luka Biong Deng Kuol.  

So much went wrong in South Sudan over the past 10 years of independence but many South Sudanese are still proud that they at least have a country of their own that they can fix one day. 

Ethiopia's 2018 Deal with Oromo Fighters Backfires

 Ethiopia Insight published on 24 April 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Bungled 2018 Deal with Oromo Rebels Is the Cause of Current Turmoil" by Marew Abebe Salemot, Debark University.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's 2018 decision to grant amnesty to exiled Oromo fighters (most of them in Eritrea) on the promise they would lay down their arms resulted in some of them now engaging in a separatist campaign in Oromia.

Ending Wars in Sudan

The Institute for Security Studies published on 19 November 2019 a report titled "Negotiations to End All Wars in Sudan."

The report argues that the most immediate challenge to ensuring peace in Sudan is the lack of trust among major stakeholders, who do not believe their counterparts are negotiating in good faith. African Union mediators should undertake confidence-building measures that address the immediate challenge the peace process is facing, namely the lack of trust among the conflicting parties.

South Sudan: The Perils of Payroll Peace

UK Aid and the London School of Economics and Political Science published in March 2019 a paper titled "South Sudan: The Perils of Payroll Peace."

Payroll peace is the practice of putting large numbers of soldiers and civil servants on the state payroll as an incentive for them, and the belligerent parties, to accept a peace agreement. This has become standard practice in South Sudan. The paper argues that at best it is corruption, at worst it is violently explosive.