Africa's Global Trends

The Institute for Global Dialogue at the University of South Africa published in May 2020 its "Spotlight on Africa: Mapping Geopolitical Trends for Quarter One 2020."

It contains brief sections on:

--Growing militancy in the Sahel and beyond.
--The internationalization of the Libyan crisis.
--The hydropolitics of the Nile.
--Navigating high-wire transitions in Sudan and Ethiopia.
--The global Covid-19 pandemic: the black swan of 2020.

China's Response to Sudan's Political Transition

The US Institute of Peace published in May 2020 a report titled "China's Response to Sudan's Political Transition" by Laura Barber, political risk analyst based in London.

Beijing's public support for Sudan's transition to civilian governance in the aftermath of the coup that deposed President Omar al-Bashir has been cautious, though mostly successful in ensuring continuity in its bilateral ties with Sudan. Attempts to balance its ties between Khartoum's rival external backers, however, have limited Beijing's ability to step in and encourage its various allies to act in the interests of stability or to play any meaningful role in bringing the conflicting parties together.

Ending Wars in Sudan

The Institute for Security Studies published on 19 November 2019 a report titled "Negotiations to End All Wars in Sudan."

The report argues that the most immediate challenge to ensuring peace in Sudan is the lack of trust among major stakeholders, who do not believe their counterparts are negotiating in good faith. African Union mediators should undertake confidence-building measures that address the immediate challenge the peace process is facing, namely the lack of trust among the conflicting parties.

Sudan: Can the Revolution Succeed?

Foreign Policy posted on 9 September 2019 a commentary titled "How to Make Sudan's Revolution Succeed" by Yasir Zaidan, National University of Sudan.

The author argues that if the military ultimately dismisses the political coalition with civilian organizations and tries to rule the nation alone, Sudan could return to the repression and corruption that haunted it for 30 years.

A Season of Hope in Sudan

The New York Times published on 22 August 2019 a commentary titled "A Season of Hope in Sudan" by Jamal Mahjoub, author.

The author argues that young Sudanese have an opportunity to seize the moment and transform the country.

Sudan: Regional Implications of New Regime

The Institute for Security Studies published on 20 August 2019 a report titled "Sudan after Bashir: Regional Opportunities and Challenges" by Andrews Atta-Asamoah and Omar S. Mahmood.

The report explains the regional implications of Omar al-Bashir's removal and the role of external actors in Sudan's internal affairs.

Sudan Needs Women at the Negotiating Table

The Institute for Security Studies published on 6 August 2019 a commentary titled "Sudan Needs Women at Its Negotiating Table" by Liezelle Kumalo and Cassie Roddy-Mullineaux.

Sudanese women played a major role in the pro-democracy movement that set Sudan on a possible path to a democratic transition. The authors argue that women should now be included in the negotiating process.

Sudan: Role of Foreign Powers

World Politics Review published on 6 August 2019 an analysis titled "From the Gulf to Egypt, Foreign Powers Are Playing with Fire in Sudan" by Richard Downie, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The author concludes that foreign powers should recognize that their attempts to promote a stable future in Sudan could instead help tip the country into civil war.

How Long Will Gulf States Support Sudan Financially?

African Arguments posted on 1 August 2019 a commentary titled "Cash and Contradictions: On the Limits of Middle Eastern Influence in Sudan" by Alex de Waal.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to support Sudan's Transitional Military Council financially but the amounts required could exceed their willingness to continue the funding.

Sudan's Uncertain Transition

The Congressional Research Service published on 17 July 2019 a report titled "Sudan's Uncertain Transition."

The report suggests that Sudan could end up as the latest example of the Arab spring or become a failed transition that leads to civil war or state collapse.

Sudan: UN Security Council and African Union Fault Lines

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 17 July 2019 an analysis titled "Can the AU and UN Find Common Ground on Sudan?" by Priyal Singh, ISS Pretoria, and Daniel Forti, International Peace Institute.

Discord has developed between the security councils of the African Union and the United Nations in their efforts to stabilize Sudan. The African Union has taken a position opposed by two permanent members--China and Russia--of the UN Security Council because of their views on non-interference in member states' internal affairs. The three African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, and the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, support the position of the African Union. This sets up a potential unfortunate disconnect between the UN Security Council and the African Union.

Sudan: Power Shifts to Darfur?

Foreign Policy published on 9 July 2019 a commentary titled "How Darfur Became Sudan's Kingmaker" by Jerome Tubiana.

The Bashir regime may be gone, but its legacy of a Sudanese society fractured by strong political and tribal divides persists. The author concludes that Sudan may be in need of two transitions: one from military to civilian rule and another from a centralized to a truly national state.

Sudan's New Dictator

Foreign Policy published on 2 July 2019 a commentary titled "From Camel Herder to Dictator" by Alex de Waal, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, known as Hemeti and who first saw combat in Sudan's infamous Janjaweed, is commander of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces and deputy chairman of the Transitional Military Council (TMC). The author argues that he is the most powerful man in Sudan today. The struggle in Khartoum is not just between the military and the protest movement. It is also about control of the country from the historic center of power on the Nile River or by the people of the vast and underprivileged peripheries.

UAE Behind Removal of Former Sudanese President?

Reuters published an in-depth account on 3 July 2019 titled "Abandoned by the UAE, Sudan's Bashir Was Destined To Fall" by Khalid Abdelaziz, Michael Georgy, and Maha El Dahan.

The authors argue that former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir mishandled a critical relationship with the United Arab Emirates and at the end of 2018, as Sudan's economy imploded and protesters took to the streets, Bashir found himself without this powerful and wealthy friend.

Panel Discussion on Unrest in Sudan

China Global Television Network America ran a 25 minute panel discussion hosted by Mike Walter 3 July 2019 on the unrest in Sudan. The participants were Mohamed Ahmed and Azaz Elshami, both Sudanese activists located in Washington, Yassmin Abdel-Magied, Sudanese activist located in London, and myself.

The discussion focused on the commitment of the protesters to continue their efforts to achieve a more democratic civilian government and the role of the international community, especially the African Union, Ethiopia, Egypt, the Gulf States, US, China, and European Union.

Role of Women in Sudan's Revolution

African Arguments posted on 2 July 2019 a report titled "'I'm against All of the Laws of This Regime': What Sudan's Women Want" by Samie al-Negar, an independent Sudanese researcher, and Liv Tonnessen, Chr. Michelsen Institute.

Women have been at the forefront of the ongoing protests in Sudan. Some are demanding gender equality but others just want a better life and an end to sexual abuse.

Negotiations to Resume in Sudan

Aljazeera posted on 29 June 2019 an update on the state of negotiations between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Freedom and Change alliance titled "Sudan's Ruling generals Warn Opposition Ahead of 'Millions March'".

The article contains quotes from an interview I gave Aljazeera underlining that the international community needs to fully support the African Union and Ethiopian mediation between the TMC and Freedom and Change alliance.

Gulf Nations Support Military in Sudan

The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 20 June 2019 a commentary titled "Will Gulf Nations Tip the Balance in Sudan Crisis?" by Claire Felter and Zachary Laub.

The authors highlight the role of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt in their support for Sudan's Transitional Military Council and question whether they welcome a civilian government.

Is Sudan Ready for Departure of Peacekeeping Mission from Darfur?

The Institute for Security Studies published on 24 June 2019 a commentary titled "Is Sudan Ready for UNAMID's Exit?" by Shewit Woldemichael.

Failure to reach a political solution to the Darfur conflict, increased instability in Sudan, and its suspension from the African Union complicate UNAMID's planned exit from Darfur in 2020.

Can Sudan's Military Be Convinced to Support Democracy?

War on the Rocks published on 25 June 2019 a commentary titled "Can Sudan's Military Be Convinced To Support Democracy?" by Nathaniel Allen, US Institute of Peace, and Sharan Grewal, Brookings Institution.

The Transitional Military Council's decision to repress the protest movement has significantly increased the chances of protracted conflict, dimming hopes for a genuine democratic settlement. The most repressive elements of Sudan's security apparatus are consolidating control.