A Retrospective on Sudan-South Sudan Separation and the Future

 The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2026 an hour-long podcast titled "Sudan's Separation Fifteen Years Ago and Today's Disaster" with Alan Boswell, Alex de Waal, and Abdul Mohammed.  

Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed review the background of South Sudan's independence from Sudan and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.  They explained why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today's fragmented regional geopolitics.

Efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan and South Sudan today are experiencing greater involvement from the Gulf States and involve a larger number of competing actors.  Mediation today is extremely difficult.  The global environment is highly transactional.  The situation also has the possibility of becoming a regional war.  It is time for the African Union to step forward and play a stronger role in ending the conflicts.  

Sudan: No Place for People Like Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan

 Aljazeera published on 11 January 2024 a commentary titled "Sudan Should Avoid the Mistakes that Kept Angola in Conflict for 27 Years" by Tafi Mhaka, Aljazeera columnist.

Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo recently toured East Africa and met with President Cyril Ramphosa in South Africa in an effort to portray himself as a reasonable statesman.  The author argues that, at best, Dagalo is a political reincarnation of his former boss, ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, or, at worst, a rebel without a cause, palpable ideology, or moral compass.  

The author compares Dagalo to Jonas Savimbi, leader of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, who was killed in battle.  He concludes that a democratic Sudan will have no place for people like Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo or Sudan Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.  

Derailed Political Transition Responsible for War in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 29 October 2023 a commentary titled "The War in Sudan Is a Consequence of a Derailed Transition" by Dirdeiry M. Ahmed, briefly a former foreign minister in Sudan and now at the University of Khartoum.  

The author lays most of the blame for the ongoing war in Sudan on the derailed political transition and actions of the international community following the toppling of the Omar al-Bashir government.  He argues that the top priority of the international community has been the sidelining of the Islamists while the focus should have been economic recovery and elections.  

Sudan's Conflict and the Importance of Social Media

 The Atlantic Council published on 8 August 2023 a study titled "Sudan's Precarious Information Environment and the Fight for Democracy" by Tessa Knight and Lujan Alsedeg.

This report examines the state of digital affairs on Sudan in the lead-up to the current conflict, focusing on the period from the October 2021 coup through December 2022.  Although only one third of the country has internet access, the government imposed constant internet disruptions.  

Severe Setback for Women in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 4 August 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan's Failed Democracy Is a Disaster for Women" by Neha Wadekar.

Sudanese women witnessed an opening of possibilities when Omar al-Bashir fell from power in 2018.  But it ended in 2021 with the military coup, a declaration of a state-of-emergency, and then the war between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Can China Broker Peace in Sudan?

 The Diplomat published on 9 May 2023 a commentary titled "Can China Broker Peace in Sudan?" by Matai Muon, University of Oxford, and Brian Wong, Balliol College, Oxford.  

The authors argue that China could hold the key to any future peace in Sudan, but caveats limit the extent to which Beijing can play a constructive role: (1)  China's long-standing preference to steer clear of internal, civil strife in conflict-prone nations; (2) China's diminishing socioeconomic and political interests within Sudan; and (3) the complex geopolitical nature of the conflict.  

Explaining Sudan's Collapse

 The Washington Post published on 7 May 2023 an article titled "How the Democratic Hopes of the Sudan Spring Went So Horribly Wrong" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.  

The article looks at the reasons for the breakdown of law and order in Sudan.  The key question is how do you get the men with the money and guns to give up their weapons?

Revolution and War in Sudan

 African Arguments published on 5 May 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan: Revolutionary Reflections, Amid a Raging War" by Robert Kluijver, Centre for International Research.

The author concludes that Sudanese civil society must form the basis for a national settlement of the crisis in Sudan.  This will require a long-term commitment by the international community.

Challenges Facing Protesters in Sudan

 African Arguments published on 1 July 2022 a commentary titled "Why Sudan Protest Movement Has Toppled One but Not Yet Two Dictators" by Justin Lynch, writer and researcher living in Sudan.

The author explains why the Sudan protest movement was able to remove Omar al-Bashir from power in 2019 but has so far failed to do so with the current military leadership.  He cites three reasons:

--The goals of the protest movement have changed from specific interests in 2019 to much broader political change.

--The organization has changed from a grass roots movement to local resistance committees engaged in infighting.

--Protesters moved from demanding the removal of military leaders to getting the entire army out of politics.  

Impact of Darfur on Sudan and Regional Politics

 The US Institute of Peace published on 20 April 2022 a report titled "Darfur after Bashir: Implications for Sudan's Transition and for the Region" by Jerome Tubiana.

The report examines the role of Darfur in Sudan's domestic politics and international relations since the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir in 2019.  It traces how Darfur's importance has shifted with the growing aspirations and power of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and the Rapid Support Forces that he controls. 

A Critical Analysis of US Policy in Sudan

 Foreign Affairs posted on 4 February 2022 a commentary titled "America's Failure of Imagination in Sudan: Washington Should Have More Faith in the Forces of Democracy" by Michelle Gavin.

Washington tends to focus too much on key individuals in Sudan at the expense of systems.  The Sudanese ruling system will never dismantle itself.  The Sudanese protesters in the street demand systemic change; Washington needs to take stronger actions than legitimizing dialogues or transitional frameworks that empower the military to dictate the agenda.  

Reversing Sudan's Coup

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 26 October 2021 a statement titled "Reversing Sudan's Dangerous Coup."

The ICG urges that the African Union lead an effort to reverse a coup in Sudan that could tip the country into sustained unrest and chaos.  

Huge Pro-democracy Protests in Sudan

 Reuters published on 22 October 2021 an article titled "Mass Protests Held in Sudan against Prospect of Military Rule" by Khalid Abdelaziz.

Huge crowds marched in Sudan's capital and several other cities on 21 October in demonstrations against the prospect of military rule.  Reuters journalists estimated that hundreds of thousands of protestors turned out. The US embassy in Khartoum issued a statement expressing strong support for Sudan's democratic transition to civilian government.

Competing Protests in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 21 October 2021 an article titled "Crowds Take to Khartoum Streets after Calls for Rival Protests."

Thousands of supporters of Sudan's transitional government took to the streets of Khartoum Thursday to show support for the civilian government while pro-military protestors continued their sit-in outside the presidential palace.

Sudan's Fragile Path to Democratic Rule

 The US Institute of Peace published on 22 September 2021 an analysis titled "Reported Coup Attempt Complicates an Already Tenuous Transition in Sudan" by Joseph Tucker.

The author concludes that regardless of who engineered the coup attempt, it reveals Sudan's competing, disjointed centers of political and security authority and the contested nature of the political transition.  

Attempted Coup in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 21 September 2021 an article titled "Sudan Transitional Government Says Coup Attempt Has Failed."

Early on 21 September, Sudan experienced an attempted coup according to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.  The Sudanese government said military elements loyal to former President Omar al-Bashir were behind the attempt.  Whatever occurred, it underscores the fragility of the current political situation in Sudan.

The Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 24 June 2021 an analysis titled "Containing the Volatile Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute."

Ethiopia and Sudan are locked in a dangerous military standoff over a piece of fertile borderland farmed by Ethiopian farmers but claimed by Sudan.  External partners should urge the two countries to find a land-use compromise similar to an earlier soft border arrangement without linking the issue to other contentious issues.  

Sudan's New Government Confronts Old Problems in Darfur

 Foreign Policy posted on 25 May 2021 a commentary titled "Darfur Is Bleeding Again: Sudan's New Government Confronts Old Problems" by Jerome Tubiana.  

The article suggests that the spiraling cycle of violence in western Sudan is not a redux of the earlier Darfur crisis.  Rather, it is a byproduct of the political transition currently underway in Khartoum.

Sudan: Typical of Africa's Challenges?

 The Brenthurst Foundation published in April 2021 a discussion paper titled "Sudan: A Metaphor for Africa?" by Greg Mills.

The author concluded that Sudan will prosper or falter depending on its ability to manage its demography, democracy, and dependency on its neighbors as it faces a yawning gap between its elites and ordinary people.  Is this the same challenge facing many other African countries?

Social Media and Conflict in Sudan: Hate Speech

 PeaceTech Lab just published a report titled "Social Media and Conflict in Sudan: A Lexicon of Hate Speech Terms" by Will Ferroggiaro.  

The lexicon of hate speech identifies key terms in Sudan's online discourse and analyzes their origins, context, and influence at a pivotal moment in the country's transition from a popular revolution to elections and civilian rule.