Aljazeera published on 22 November 2023 an article titled "Fears of All-out Ethnic War Rise in Sudan's Darfur" by Mat Nashed.
The on-going fighting in Darfur will most likely turn into an all-out ethnic based conflict. Five mostly non-Arab armed militia known as the Joint Protection Forces have banded together to protect the last remaining part of Darfur region from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
African Arguments published on 5 June 2023 a commentary titled "The Sudan Crisis Viewed from Juba: A Path Towards Resolution" by Mayiik Ayii Deng.
The author makes the argument that South Sudan's President Salva Kiir is well positioned to mediate an end to the crisis in its northern neighbor.
The Rift Valley Institute published on 27 March 2023 a paper titled "Resistance in the Peripheries: Civil War and Fragile Peace in Sudan & Ethiopia's Borderlands."
The government of Ethiopia has historically supported the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) while the government in Sudan has supported the Benishangul People's Liberation Movement (BPLM) in Ethiopia. At the moment there is not a military relationship between the SPLM/A and the Ethiopian government. Since 2020, however, the BPLM has received military support from the Sudanese government and its military.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 23 January 2023 a statement titled "A Critical Window to Bolster Sudan's Next Government."
Sudan's military government has concluded a framework agreement with dozens of civilian leaders for a transitional government, but several important groups refused to take part in the process. The ICG argues that it is now essential to expand support for the agreement.
The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 3 November 2022 a policy brief titled "Back to Barracks: Building Democracy after the Military Coup in Sudan" by Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a Sudanese politician in Khartoum.
The author concludes that the international community has failed to find a viable political pathway to end Sudan's military coup because it is too focused on working with elites. It needs to grasp that both military and civilian elites are responsible for failing to open politics to the people of Sudan. Violence, repression, and unrest are widespread and splits in the military camp threaten to spill over into civil war. These splits also result in drawing Sudan into regional conflicts in neighboring countries.
The US Institute of Peace published on 20 April 2022 a report titled "Darfur after Bashir: Implications for Sudan's Transition and for the Region" by Jerome Tubiana.
The report examines the role of Darfur in Sudan's domestic politics and international relations since the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. It traces how Darfur's importance has shifted with the growing aspirations and power of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and the Rapid Support Forces that he controls.
Just Security published on 16 February 2022 a detailed analysis titled "A Transitional Period Constitutional Question in Sudan" by Nasredeen Abdulbari, Sudan's former minister of justice.
This is a detailed legal analysis of the transitional constitutional agreement and the Juba Peace Agreement that eventually led to the military coup d'etat on 25 October 2021.
The Rift Valley Institute published in January/February a briefing paper titled "What Next for the Juba Peace Agreement? Evolving Political and Security Dynamics in Darfur."
The paper focuses on the future of the Juba Peace Agreement and the evolving political and security dynamics in Darfur. Implementation of the agreement has been complicated by the actions of Sudan Revolutionary Front leaders before, during and after the 25 October 2021 coup. Two key Darfuri signatories--the Sudan Liberation Army-Minni Minnawi (SLA-MM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)--benefitted from the agreement and supported the coup. Since then, JEM and its leaders have stayed close to the military, while SLA-MM has grown somewhat disenchanted.
The US Institute of Peace published on 1 February 2022 testimony titled "Sudan's Imperiled Transition: U.S. Policy in the Wake of the October 25th Coup" by Joseph Tucker.
In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Joseph Tucker urges strengthening and making more inclusive the UNITAMS mediation initiative. He concludes it is not possible to return to the pre-October 25 military coup situation. There will be no stability in Sudan until there is a genuine civilian government and the role of the security sector is firmly decided and implemented.
The Rift Valley Institute published in December 2021 an analysis titled "What Next for the Juba Peace Agreement?"
The Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) is a problematic document that bestowed power on the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) without taking into account the other groups in regions of Sudan that have experienced years of conflict. The October 25 military coup that removed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok succeeded in part because of the overt participation or tacit support of the SRF leaders, most of whom aligned themselves with the military coup. The future of the JPA is now in serious doubt.
