Pro-democracy Protests Resume in Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 6 April 2022 an article titled "Sudanese Take to the Streets in Anti-coup Protests: 1 Killed" by Samy Magdy.

After several weeks of relative quiet in Sudan, pro-democracy protests against the military coup d'etat last October have again broken out in several cities in Sudan.

Sudan's Juba Peace Agreement

 The Rift Valley Institute published in January/February a briefing paper titled "What Next for the Juba Peace Agreement? Evolving Political and Security Dynamics in Darfur."

The paper focuses on the future of the Juba Peace Agreement and the evolving political and security dynamics in Darfur.  Implementation of the agreement has been complicated by the actions of Sudan Revolutionary Front leaders before, during and after the 25 October 2021 coup.  Two key Darfuri signatories--the Sudan Liberation Army-Minni Minnawi (SLA-MM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)--benefitted from the agreement and supported the coup.  Since then, JEM and its leaders have stayed close to the military, while SLA-MM has grown somewhat disenchanted.  

Sudan's Juba Peace Agreement on Life Support

 The Rift Valley Institute published in December 2021 an analysis titled "What Next for the Juba Peace Agreement?"

The Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) is a problematic document that bestowed power on the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) without taking into account the other groups in regions of Sudan that have experienced years of conflict.  The October 25 military coup that removed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok succeeded in part because of the overt participation or tacit support of the SRF leaders, most of whom aligned themselves with the military coup.  The future of the JPA is now in serious doubt.  

Obstacles to Sudan's Peace Deal

 African Arguments published on 12 October 2020 an analysis titled "The Obstacles to Sudan's Landmark Peace Deal" by Yaseen Mohmad Abdalla, journalist and researcher.

The government of Sudan recently signed in Juba a peace agreement with 3 armed groups: the Justice and Equality Movement, Sudan Liberation Movement, and Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North.  Two other important armed groups refused to endorse the pact, which puts in question its ability to bring peace.  

Sudan's Juba Peace Accord Likely to Fail

 War on the Rocks published on 22 September 2020 an analysis titled "A Chance for Peace? The Impact of the Juba Peace Deal on Sudan's Fragile Transition" by Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, independent researcher.  

The author argues that the Juba peace accord on conflict in Darfur, Southern Kordofan, and Blue Nile regions of Sudan will not bring peace because it offers no solution to the intercommunal conflicts that define the new patterns of violence in Sudan's peripheries and is silent on key issues of implementation.

Sudan: What Next?

African Arguments published on 13 August 2015 an analysis titled "Sudan: What Next?" by Magnus Taylor, Sudan and Uganda analyst for the International Crisis Group.

He concluded that attempts to encourage an end to Sudan's worsening conflicts and to halt the deterioration of economic conditions for the impoverished majority, continues to suffer from the political vacuum within the NCP--a lack of agreement among the NCP's diverse internal constituencies and especially the military's resistance to concessions to the Sudanese Revolutionary Front--and an absence of credible alternatives. 

Will Sudan's Elections Derail National Dialogue?

The Institute for Security Studies in South Africa published on 26 March 2015 a commentary titled "Navigating a Bump in the Road: Will Sudan's Elections Derail National Dialogue?" by Peter Fabricius, foreign editor of South Africa's Independent Newspapers.  Fabricius offers a fairly negative account for Sudan's political prospects.

Prospects for National Political Dialogue in Sudan

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 11 March 2015 a briefing titled "Sudan: The Prospects for 'National Dialogue'".  The ICG concludes that the prospects for a soft-landing to end Sudan's internal political differences are fading because the ruling National Congress Party is unwilling or unable to make necessary concessions.

National Dialogue Process in Sudan

Enough published in December 2014 an analysis of the national dialogue process in Sudan titled "Starving War, Feeding Peace, and Setting the Table for National Dialogue in Sudan" by Akshaya Kumar and John Prendergast.   They conclude that the process at the moment is imbalanced, exclusive, and restrictive.  They suggest this could change if the Sudanese government decides to engage meaningfully and demonstrates its commitment by meeting six preconditions laid out by Enough. 

The six preconditions aimed at the National Congress Party (NCP) and the government of Sudan do beg the question:  are there no preconditions for those groups that oppose the NCP and the government?

Mobilization of Sudan Armed Forces in Nuba Mountains

The Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) published on 25 April 2014 a warning concerning the mobilization of Sudan Armed Forces in the Nuba Mountains, South Kordofan.  SSP suggests the mobilization is designed for an assault on Sudan Revolutionary Front bases in the Kauda Valley. 

Sudan's Tortured Peace Process

The Enough Project published on 1 April 2014 a commentary titled "Sudan's Tortured Peace Process" by Omer Ismail and Akshaya Kumar.  They argue the current effort that continues to support fragmented negotiations for each of Sudan's regional conflicts is counterproductive.  What is needed is a holistic approach

Enough Project Warns of Expanding War in Sudan

The Satellite Sentinel Project and Enough, based on satellite data, warn that the build-up of aerial assets across Sudan, particularly in El Obeid, Dilling and the surrounding area, signals a major military offensive against the Sudanese Revolutionary Front, which is trying to topple the government in Khartoum.  The satellite data has been published in a 22 November 2013 report titled "Situation Report: Expanding War in Sudan Threatens Civilians."

Sudan's Approach to Darfur

Amin Hassan Omer, Sudan's Minister of State for Darfur, and Al Tijani Seisi, chairman of the Darfur Regional Authority and leader of the Liberation and Justice Movement, made a presentation at Chatham House in London on 8 May 2013.  A summary of their remarks appeared under the title "Sudan's Approach to Darfur: Resolving a Decade of Conflict." 

They spoke about the government of Sudan's approach to Darfur after ten years of conflict and the displacement of more than two million Darfuris.  The speakers described Sudan's plans for an effective and inclusive political process, and the role of the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur as a basis for achieving a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Dialogue in Sudan

The US Institute of Peace (USIP) in Washington published on 13 August 2013 a brief paper titled "Pathway to National Dialogue in Sudan" by Princeton Lyman and Jon Temin.  It analyzes the prospects for genuine national dialogue and reform in Sudan, concluding that any meaningful process will be lengthy.  If a genuine, inclusive process is underway, elections in 2015 may need to be delayed.

Lyman is a special adviser to the president of USIP and the former US special envoy for Sudan and South Sudan.  Temin is the director of the Horn of Africa program at USIP.

Conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 18 June 2013 an extensive report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (II): War in Blue Nile."  It covers all aspects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State.

The ICG concludes that Blue Nile State has become a major battleground for the ideological competition between two opposed models: Khartoum's attempts at unifying and centralizing the country with a dominant Arab-Islamic identity, which South Sudan's separation is paradoxically reviving, versus the rebel SPLM/A's and now Sudan Revolutionary Front's agenda for a more inclusive and devolved Sudan.  Attempts to resolve Blue Nile's past and current conflicts reflect Sudan's existential dilemma as to how best it should define itself.

Report on Conflict in Sudan's South Kordofan

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released on 14 February 2013 a detailed report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (I): War in South Kordofan."  It points out that the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), which is based in the Nuba Mountains, is well armed and has an alliance with a Darfur rebel group, the Sudan Revolutionary Front.

ICG concludes that the conflict between the SPLM-N and the Sudan government forces have reached a strategic stalemate.  The SPLM-N has as many as 30,000 soldiers while the number of government troops in South Kordofan is estimated at between 40,000 and 70,000.  ICG states that "neither side is strong enough to win militarily."

Sudan's Opposition Groups

Writing on the Good Governance Africa web site, Simon Allison recently provided a commentary on the various opposition groups that oppose the National Congress Party (NCP) and Omar al-Bashir.

Click here to read the commentary.

Sudan: Major Reform or More War

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released on 29 November 2012 a report titled "Sudan: Major Reform or More War."

It concluded that the government in Khartoum is in crisis, faced with multiple challenges that, combined, profoundly threaten its existence and Sudan's stability.

ICG argued that the international community should learn the lessons of past failed settlement initiatives. Sudan needs a truly comprehensive peace agreement, not a partial settlement that serves the government's divide-and-rule tactics and perpetuates the unacceptable status quo. ICG wisely added that the National Congress Party (NCP) needs to be part of the transition.

Click here to read the analysis.

Who's Who in Sudan's Opposition

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs published on 26 July 2012 a brief, but useful update on the current opposition groups in Sudan. Click here for a summary of these groups.

Sudan: Situation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile

The Enough Project published in June 2012 a balanced account of the current situation in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states of Sudan. The author, Jenn Christian, notes that both regions are critical to peace between Sudan and South Sudan.

The conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile provide Juba with a rationale it believes it can destabilize the government in Khartoum by providing support to the SPLM-N and, by extension, to the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF). Continued conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile has, however, galvanized President Bashir's power base in Khartoum against the rebels and, by extension, South Sudan. While southern officials continue to deny their support of the SPLM-N and the SRF, most observers believe they they are providing some assistance.

Khartoum views the SRF rebellion as a threat to the NCP regime's domestic stability and characterizes southern support for the insurgency as the underlying cause of the violence. So far, Khartoum has publicly refused to negotiate with the SPLM-N and other members of the SRF.

Click here to read the brief report.