US Evacuates Embassy in Khartoum, Sudan

 President Biden issued a statement on 22 April 2023 on the "Situation in Sudan" in which he announced the evacuation of U.S. government personnel from Khartoum by the U.S. military.  He thanked Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia for their assistance and announced the United States is "temporarily suspending operations" at the embassy in Khartoum.  He called on the belligerent parties in Sudan to implement an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.

The Washington Post published on 23 April 2023 an article titled "Special Forces Swiftly Evacuate US Embassy Staff from Sudan" by Matthew Lee, Tara Copp, and Aamer Madhani.

About 100 U.S. troops in three MH-47 helicopters positioned in Djibouti airlifted about 70 American employees from a landing zone at the embassy compound in Khartoum to a location in Ethiopia, which also provided overflight and refueling support.  

The Washington Post published on 23 April 2023 an article titled "Embassies Rush to Evacuate in Sudan's Chaos, But Thousands of Foreigners Remain" by John Hudson and Katharine Houreld.

The article describes the efforts of other embassies in Khartoum to evacuate their nationals, noting that most foreign nationals remain in the country.  While the United States does not plan to conduct additional air evacuations of U.S. nationals, it is considering the use of surveillance and reconnaissance to provide information on potentially safe land routes out of Khartoum. 

The Washington Post published on 22 April 2023 an article titled "U.S. Evacuates Embassy Personnel and Families from Sudan, Biden Says" by Claire Parker, Katharine Houreld, Ellen Francis, John Hudson, and Shane Harris.

This article provides additional background on the evacuation of US embassy staff from Khartoum, adding that it is not safe to undertake a US government -coordinated evacuation of private citizens scattered throughout Khartoum.  

Comment:  The US embassy is located on a large compound in the Soba district on the east side of Khartoum near the Blue Nile River.  It is a safer location than many parts of Khartoum from which to conduct an evacuation of this kind.  

Worst Case Scenario Is Playing Out in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 19 April 2023 an article titled "Western Governments Look to Escapte the 'Nightmare' in Sudan" by Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch.

A worst case scenario is unfolding in Sudan whereby neither the Sudan Armed Forces nor the Rapid Support Forces seems to believe that any outcome less than total victory is acceptable.

What's Behind the Fighting in Sudan?

 The US Institute of Peace published on 20 April 2023 a commentary titled "What's Behind the Fighting in Sudan?" by Susan Stigant.

Sudan Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo were antifipating and gearing up for a confrontation.  Both appear to have lost confidence in the political process, shifting instead to war and violence.  

Sudan Meltdown: When in Doubt, Just Blame the United States

 Foreign Policy published on 20 April 2023 a commentary titled "In Sudan, U.S. Policies Paved the Way for War" by Justin Lynch.

The author points out that Sudan is facing state collapse.  He puts much of the blame on U.S. policy.  He does acknowledge that Sudan's feuding generals have primary responsibility for the current fighting.  He then adds that the precipitating event of the current war in Sudan was a reconciliation agreement and security sector reform plan that was pushed by the United States and the UN mission in Sudan.

Comment: It is easy to Monday morning quarterback and criticize from the sidelines after the results are known.  And it is probably unrealistic to think the current military leaders in Sudan are prepared to give up power to a civilian government.  They have too much to lose.  These guys are not the successors of General Rahman Swar al-Dahab, who did voluntarily turn over power to civilians in 1986.  But the United States, United Nations, and all other interested parties must work with what they have.  While the plan never had a high likelihood of success, it was a sincere effort and no one else offered a more credibile plan.  

Sudan Conflict and International Humanitarian Law

 Just Security published on 20 April 2023 a commentary titled "The Fighting in Sudan Is an Armed Conflict: Here's What Law Applies" by Jelena Pejic, Lieber Institute at West Point.

The author describes the fighting in Sudan as a non-international armed conflict under international humanitarian law (IHL). Sudan is party to the main IHL treaties.  It could be argued that the Rapid Support Forces is a dissident force under IHL.  

Sudan: Collective Action Required

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 20 April 2023 a commentary titled "Stopping Sudan's Descent into Full-blown Civil War."

The ICG is calling on all Sudanese and outside countries and organizations that have influence with the Sudan Armed Forces and/or the Rapid Support Forces to demand they agree to a ceasefire, especially during the Eid al-Fitr celebration marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

Sudan's Conflict Is a Test for China's Peacemaking Skills

 The South China Morning Post published on 18 April 2023 an article titled "Violence in Sudan a Test for China's Ambitions in Africa: Analysts" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China has significant, albeit declining, economic interests in Sudan and stands with the rest of the international community to lose them.  While China has called for an end to the fighting and encouraged dialogue among the warring factions, it has otherwise been surprisingly quiet on the conflict.  

U.S. Readies Sanctions for Sudan's Warring Factions

 Foreign Policy published on 19 April 2023 a commentary titled "U.S. Readies New Sanctions on Warring Sudanese Forces" by Robbie Gramer.

The United States is preparing sanctions on both the warring Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, although they may be too little, too late to have any significant impact.  

Power Sharing by Generals in Sudan Is Not the Answer

 The Washington Post published on 18 April 2023 an opinion piece titled "The Eruption of Violence in Sudan Shows the Generals Can't Be Trusted" by Jeffrey Feltman, Brookings Institution and former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa.

An end to the violence in Sudan predicated on power sharing by the two contending military leaders, Sudan Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, will not result in a sustainable end to the conflict.  Feltman argues that the two generals "are not reformers--and that they will never be reformed." 

US Organizes to Deal with Messy Situation in Sudan

 CNN published on 18 April 2023 an article titled "US State Department Establishes Special Taskforce to Deal with Sudan Crisis" by Jennifer Hansler.

The U.S. Department of State has established a Sudan Military Conflict Task Force to oversee developments related to Sudan as law and order breaks down in the country.  

Lawlessness Expands in Sudan; Will Cease Fire Hold?

 The Washington Post published on 18 April 2023 an article titled "Sudan Rivals Signal Cease-Fire after U.S. Convoy, Aid Workers Attacked" by Katharine Houreld, Ellen Francis and John Hudson. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said aid workers and a U.S. diplomatic convoy came under attack in Sudan.  A 24-hour cease fire reportedly will go into effect Tuesday evening.

Axios published on 18 April 2023 an article titled "US Convoy Attacked in Sudan, Blinken Says" by Barak Ravid.  

This more detailed account of the attack on the U.S. diplomatic convoy indicated it was conducted by the Rapid Support Forces.  

Sudan and Its Troubled Past

 The Conversation published on 17 April 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan Crisis Explained: What's Behind the Latest Fighting and How It Fits Nation's Troubled Past" by Christopher Tounsel, University of Washington.  

The author concludes that neither Sudan Armed Forces leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan nor the head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, has any intention of relinquishing power; they are locked in a power struggle that is an obstacle to any chance of Sudan transitioning to civilian democracy.  

My Take on the Military Power Struggle in Sudan

 The Middle East Institute published on 17 April 2023 my brief titled "Military Power Struggle Explodes in Sudan."

My remarks offer a brief background of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and efforts by the Biden administration to encourage a return to civilian government in the country.  This conflict would seem to doom any prospect for a return to civilian rule in the foreseeable future.    

Background Behind Military Power Struggle in Sudan

 The New York Times published on 15 April 2023 an article titled "Rival Generals Unleash Fighting in Sudan, Dashing Dreams of Democracy" by Declan Walsh.

The Washington Post published on 16 April 2023 an article titled "69 Civilians Killed in Sudan as Military and Rival Group Fight for Control" by Katharine Houreld and John Hudson.  

The articles in the two newspapers provide useful background on the struggle between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to control Sudan, ending any immediate hope for a democratic transition in the country.  

Sudan: National Army and Rapid Support Forces Battle for Power

 The BBC published on 15 April 2023 a report titled "Sudan: Army and Paramilitaries Battle Over Key Sites" by Zeinab Mohammed Salih and Emmanuel Igunza.

National army forces under President /General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan are battling for control of Sudan against the Rapid Support Forces led by Vice President/General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.  There are conflicting claims as to which forces are in charge of what facilities.

Reuters published on 15 April 2023 an article titled "US Secretary of State Blinken Calls for Immediate End to Violence in Sudan."

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Vietnam, called for an immediate end to hostilities. 

Tension Builds between Rapid Support Forces and National Army in Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 13 April 2022 an article titled "Sudan's Military Warns of Conflict after Rival Force Deploys" by Jack Jeffery.

Sudan's national army warned of potential clashes with the powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which it said deployed troops in Khartoum and other cities.  Tension between the national army and the RSF is at an all time high.  

Sudan Talks On Civilian Government Hit Roadblock

 Reuters published on 30 March 2023 an article titled "Sudanese Talks Hit Roadblock Over Security Sector Reform."

Talks in Sudan aimed at reaching a final agreement to name a civilian government and hold elections hit a wall over the issue of restructuring the military, which currently controls the government.  Disagreement over integrating the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into the regular military is the apparent problem.  The regular army wants this integration to take place within 2 years; the RSF wants 10 years.   

Sudan: Division Among Generals on Transition to Civilian Rule

 The Associated Press published on 7 March 2023 an article titled "Sudan General Says Military Leaders Clinging to Power" by Samy Magdy.

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces, claims that he opposes the unwillingness of other military leaders to hand over power to civilians.  Dagalo is trying to portray himself as a defender of the transition to democracy.  

Sudan: Generals and Pro-democracy Group Sign Agreement, But Will It Last?

 The Associated Press published on 5 December 2022 an article titled "Sudan's Generals, Pro-democracy Group Ink Deal to End Crisis."

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and the Leaders of the Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change agreed to the broad outlines of a deal to resume Sudan's movement to democracy.  The agreement does not have the support of key political forces, including the grassroots pro-democracy Resistance Committees.  The lack of detail in the agreement also raises serious questions about its prospects for success.  

Building Democracy in Sudan

 The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 3 November 2022 a policy brief titled "Back to Barracks: Building Democracy after the Military Coup in Sudan" by Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a Sudanese politician in Khartoum.

The author concludes that the international community has failed to find a viable political pathway to end Sudan's military coup because it is too focused on working with elites.  It needs to grasp that both military and civilian elites are responsible for failing to open politics to the people of Sudan.  Violence, repression, and unrest are widespread and splits in the military camp threaten to spill over into civil war.  These splits also result in drawing Sudan into regional conflicts in neighboring countries.