Analysis of Somalia's Governance Crisis

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 13 August 2026 an analysis titled "Trends and Shifts in the Somali Landscape: From Constitutional Dispute to a Crisis of Legitimacy."

Somalia is experiencing one of its most complex political crises since the adoption of the federal system in 2012.  These tensions coincide with growing friction between the federal government and federal member states, particularly Puntland.

The analysis concludes that the current governance crisis extends far beyond electoral arrangements or constitutional amendments.  Its roots reach into the very foundation of the fragile consensus upon which the federal state has been built in the last decade and a half.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Quietly Manipulates Political Forces in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 April 2026 a commentary titled "Abiy Is Quietly Dismantling Tigray" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu, former senior advisor at the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. 

The Tigray People's Liberation Front bears responsibility for its internal fractures, which the federal government is using to its advantage.  As a result, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured outcomes through quiet, calculated maneuvering that advance his strategic interests while avoiding the scrutiny that a return to war would incite.  Tigray remains deeply divided.  

Somalia: The Formation of Hirshabelle State

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a study titled "The Formation of Hirshabelle State: Challenges and Opportunities."  

Established in 2016 as the fifth federal member of Somalia, Hirshabelle State represented a pivotal yet contentious milestone in the country's governance process, which was widely criticized for its rushed and exclusionary decision-making.  The process exacerbated unresolved grievances among key stakeholders.  

South Sudan's Latest Crisis: Deja Vu

 World Politics Review published on 20 June 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's Latest Crisis Is Following a Familiar Script" by Lesley Anne Warner.

The fragile peace established in South Sudan in 2018 may be unraveling.  South Sudan is returning to form: erosion of power sharing, military fragmentation, and an apparent succession crisis.  

Ethiopia: Tigray's Political Transition

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 April 2025 a commentary titled "Strategic Pathways for Tigray's Political Transition" by an anonymous author with over 20 years of academic, non-profit, and government experience.  

The author believes Tigray Region is at a crossroads in its political history.  His comments suggest a pragmatic and strategic approach for Tigray's new leadership, focusing on resolving key issues such as power-sharing among factions, restoring territorial integrity, fostering diplomatic relations, and dealing with the complex socio-political dynamics in Tigray.  

The Complexities of Conflict in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.  

They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country.  They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.

Magical Policy Thinking on Ending Conflict in Sudan

 Just Security published on 12 August 2024 an analysis titled "The Year(s) of Magical Thinking on Sudan" by Payton Knopf, former US deputy special envoy for Sudan.

Three fallacies have contributed to the current crisis in Sudan.  First, power-sharing between civilian and military actors or exclusively military actors is a basis for a stable political order.  Second, ceasefires end violence or are a prerequisite for doing so.  Third, political legitimacy is less important than coercive force.  Belief in these fallacies has resulted in US policy that constitutes magical thinking.

Transitional Justice in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in January 2024 a study titled "Transitional Justice in Clan-based Societies: Case Study Somalia" by Yusuf Hassan.

After decades of civil war, Somalia stands on the precipice of recovery.  Yet, Somalia's path to recovery remains precariously balanced.  Tribal violence and extremist ideologies continue to ripple through the country, and political factions, intractably entangled in ceaseless power struggles threaten the fragile momentum.  A fundamental shift in approach is needed to solidify Somalia's path towards recovery and stability.  

Power Sharing by Generals in Sudan Is Not the Answer

 The Washington Post published on 18 April 2023 an opinion piece titled "The Eruption of Violence in Sudan Shows the Generals Can't Be Trusted" by Jeffrey Feltman, Brookings Institution and former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa.

An end to the violence in Sudan predicated on power sharing by the two contending military leaders, Sudan Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, will not result in a sustainable end to the conflict.  Feltman argues that the two generals "are not reformers--and that they will never be reformed." 

Comments to Aljazeera on Sudan

 Aljazeera asked me to comment on 25 November 2021 on the situation in Sudan in the aftermath of the reinstatement of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.  

Nurturing Sudan's Fledgling Power-sharing Accord

The International Crisis Group published on 20 August 2019 a commentary titled "Nurturing Sudan's Fledgling Power-sharing Accord."

Sudan's generals signed the power-sharing accord under pressure. All interested parties will need to remain vigilant lest they try to restore autocracy.

Musing on Ethiopian Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 24 July 2019 a long commentary titled "Election in End Times" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, a specialist in constitutional law and political theory.

The author argues better that Ethiopia hold a sham election in 2020 than no election at all. The choice is between civil war and peace.

Rethinking Stabilization Efforts in Somalia

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published on 9 May 2019 an analysis titled "Rethinking Stabilization Efforts in Somalia" by Giovanni Faleg, European Union Institute for Security Studies.

The planned withdrawal of AMISOM in 2021 from Somalia threatens all stabilization programs. Without substantial support, the Somali National Army will not be able to maintain its territorial gains. The author proposes a three part plan for stabilizing Somalia before AMISOM departs.

Playing the International Donors in South Sudan

African Arguments posted on 20 March 2019 a commentary titled "South Sudan: How Warring Parties Play International Donors" by Daniel Akech Thiong, independent consultant.

The author explains how the warring parties in South Sudan manipulate the international mediators and sources of aid and argues that power sharing is doomed to fail.

South Sudan: What Is Impact of Peace Agreement on Refugees and IDPs?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) posted on 9 January 2019 a commentary titled "South Sudan: 'Whose Power Are They Sharing Anyway?'" by Omar Mahmood, ISS Addis Ababa, and Thijs Van Laer, International Refugee Rights Initiative in Uganda.

South Sudan's 2.5 million refugees and 1.8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) are frustrated about the IGAD peace process and feel left behind. The authors argue that refugees and IDPs must be properly informed about the peace deal and more closely connected to its implementation and monitoring.

The Last Peace Deal for South Sudan?

The Institute for Security Studies published on 20 August 2018 an interview with Nicholas Haysom, UN Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, titled "The Last Peace Deal for South Sudan?"

Haysom stated that what is required from South Sudan now is to reach out to all elements of society and to make the necessary compromises and sacrifices which would make the peace agreement work. International support for the process will disappear if there is not clear evidence of sustainability of the agreement.

Situation in Eastern Sudan

The Sudan Democracy First Group released on 10 October 2017 the English-language translation of its extensive report initially released in Arabic titled "The Forgotten Territory: The Strategic Thinking for Change and Stability in Eastern Sudan."

The report begins with the assumption that since Sudan's independence, Eastern Sudan has continued to be a victim of the same development marginalization from which all of Sudan's peripheries are suffering. Despite the relative peace in Eastern Sudan, the ruling National Congress Party has aggravated the security, political and economic problems of the region, placing Eastern Sudan in a state of precarious stability and conflict.

South Sudan Power Sharing Agreement Doomed to Fail

African Arguments published on 4 October 2016 a commentary titled "Failing South Sudan: First as Tragedy, Then as Farce" by William Davison, Bloomberg News.

Davison suggests the power sharing arrangement between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar was doomed from the start. He argues that the international community must take a more thorough and honest assessment of the deep-rooted, age-old problems bedeviling South Sudan. Until policy is directed by an understanding that South Sudanese elites are unscrupulously battling for control of an under-formed state, then the remedies proposed will be insufficient. While Davison identifies the problem and suggests steps not to take, I don't see the solution in his analysis.

Kenya: Making Power Sharing Work

Princeton University published in March 2016 a study titled "Making Power Sharing Work: Kenya's Grand Coalition Cabinet, 2008-2013" by Leon Schreiber.  The author concluded that Kenya's Grand Coalition cabinet was largely able to govern according to a unified policy agenda; however, the level of political corruption remained high. 

Zanzibar: A Power Sharing Success Story?

The Washington-based Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) published in Africa Watch on 7 August 2014 a brief analysis titled "Zanzibar: A Power Sharing Success Story?" by Alexander Noyes, an adjunct research associate at IDA.  According to two recent studies, the author concludes it appears that overall the power-sharing agreement has ushered in a new, relatively peaceful era in Zanzibar's politics.