Ethiopia: Amhara Nationalism and Upcoming Elections

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 7 June 2021 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalism at the Polls in Ethiopia" by an anonymous author. 

This account describes the recent evolution of Amhara nationalism and how it might play out during elections in Ethiopia later this month.  

Ethiopia-Sudan Border Conflict

 World Politics Review published on 1 March 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia-Sudan Border Skirmishes Spark Fears of a Wider War" by Yasir Zaidan, National University of Sudan.  

A border conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan could serve as a useful distraction from internal conflict in both countries but would also be catastrophic.  The author urges the Biden administration to make a project of reducing tension along the Ethiopia-Sudan border.  

Ethiopia: Argument Against Elections in 2020

Ethiopia Insight published on 24 September 2019 a commentary titled "Breaking an Electoral Suicide Pact" by Olaana Abbaaxiiqi, a lawyer living in the United States who uses a pen name.

The author suggests there are dangers in going forward with scheduled national elections in 2020, especially when there are now about 140 political parties and a postponement of the national census.

Musing on Ethiopian Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 24 July 2019 a long commentary titled "Election in End Times" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, a specialist in constitutional law and political theory.

The author argues better that Ethiopia hold a sham election in 2020 than no election at all. The choice is between civil war and peace.

Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution

The Journal of Democracy published in July 2019 an article titled "Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution" by Jon Temin and Yoseph Badwaza, both at Freedom House.

The authors concluded that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces major challenges before possible elections in 2020. He draws positive headlines around the globe, but is not always helped by his messaging at home. He and his government need to do more to lay out their vision of a comprehensive reform process with clear bench-marks and goals, and they need to set up mechanisms that can monitor progress and ensure accountability.

Ethiopia: The Genie Is Out of the Bottle

Foreign Policy published on 4 July 2019 an analysis titled "Abiy Ahmed's Reforms Have Unleashed Forces He Can No Longer Control" by Nizar Manek, Addis Ababa correspondent for Bloomberg News.

The author argues that following the opening up of Ethiopia's political system fractious forms of ethnonationalism are emerging across the country with its more than 80 ethnic groups, raising the prospect of a Yugoslav-style breakup.

Ethiopia after the Assassinations

The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 25 June 2019 a commentary titled "Restoring Calm in Ethiopia after High-profile Assassinations."

The ICG lays out several steps that it says the Ethiopian government and EPRDF need to take to restore calm in the country.

Ethiopia: Local Elections May Show Way Forward

Ethiopia Insight posted on 29 May 2019 a commentary titled "Political Shake-up and Localism Can Edge Ethiopia Forwards" by Rene Lefort.

The ruling EPRDF is paralyzed. Local elections could mark an important step forward and possibly lead to a new political settlement in Ethiopia.

Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia

Foreign Policy posted on 15 January 2019 a commentary titled "Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia" by Florian Bieber, University of Graz in Austria, and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu, Addis Ababa University.

Similar to the former Yugoslavia, Ethiopia is a federal state with nine units organized along ethnic lines. Empowering ethnic groups through territorial autonomy has been a double-edged sword. While allowing self-government has reduced tensions stemming from the dominance of a particular group, it places ethnic belonging at the center of politics, links it to territory, and therefore risks an eventual increase in ethnic tensions. The Yugoslav scenario offers a cautionary tale.

Ethiopia: Parties Struggle to Gain Political Advantage

Ethiopia Insight posted on 9 January 2018 a commentary titled "TPLF Hegemony Has Ended, But EPRDF Power Struggle Is Just Beginning" by Mastewal Dessalew, a US-based software engineer.

The author argues that the ruling EPRDF parties have lost a unifying political ideology. In the meantime, the author says the EPRDF "is a collection of factions engaged in medieval-like political intrigue in order to become the country's dominant force."

Ethiopia Faces Political Uncertainty

Ethiopia Insight published on 21 October 2018 an analysis titled "Ethiopia: Climbing Mount Uncertainty" by Rene Lefort, who has written on African issues since the 1970s.

The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made three huge strategic errors as he announced his reform program. There are now four future scenarios, all of which are steep and tortuous as Ethiopia faces a mountain of uncertainty.

Ethiopia: A Look at the State of Political Parties

Ethiopia Insight posted on 19 October 2018 a commentary titled "Rising Allies May Breach Frontier Despite EPRDF Stalling on Expansion" by Elias Gebreselassie, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

The author suggests the the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition may face more significant competition from smaller ethnic-based political parties in future elections.