Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations and Scenarios for the Future

 The Emirates Policy Center, an independent think tank based in Abu Dhabi, UAE, published on 27 December 2023 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions and Likely Scenarios."  

The Center believes Ethiopia's approach to relations with Eritrea is based on two principles: First, Asmara's significant political influence in Ethiopia needs to be curbed.  Second, Eritrea is the most fitting neighbor to fulfill Addis Ababa's geopolitical maritime ambitions.  For its part, Eritrea believes that Addis Ababa acts like a hegemon, trying to isolate Eritrea politically.

There are three potential scenarios for the future of Ethiopia-Eritrea relations: sliding into war, soft containment, or stalemate.  

Ethiopia: Amhara Nationalists Finding Few Allies

 Ethiopia Insight published on 7 June 2023 a commentary titled "Amharas Turning on Abiy Are Short of Ethiopian Allies" by Abel Tesfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

The author argues that Amhara factionalism and friction with fellow government opponents elsewhere in Ethiopia are likely to constrain opposition to the Abiy government.  

Ethiopia: Ethnic Claims in Western Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 November 2022 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalist Claims over Western Tigray Are a Smokescreen for Ethnic Cleansing" by Jan Nyssen, University of Ghent.  

The author argues that as many as 723,000 Tigrayans have been forced from Western Tigray by Amhara militia, the Ethiopian National Defense Force, and Eritrean forces.  Parts of Western Tigray have been disputed for centuries by Tigrayans and Amhara.  The author sheds some historical light on the dispute.  

Timing is "Ripe" for Peace in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 July 2022 a commentary titled "After Twenty Months of Devastation, the Time for Negotiation Has Come" by Kallu Messay.  

The central government and the TPLF have an obligation to commit to peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ethiopia, which the author says is "ripe" for settlement.  It is also essential to neutralize the spoilers on both sides.

Conflicting Signals on Ethiopian Peace Prospects

 The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 10 January 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Conflict Dynamics Shift as New U.S. Envoy Takes Over" by Michelle Gavin.  

Recent developments in Ethiopia concerning the civil conflict suggest the possibility of a way forward to achieve a sustainable peace but, at the same time, there are negative developments that threaten to interrupt any progress.  

Ethiopia: Amhara Nationalism and Upcoming Elections

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 7 June 2021 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalism at the Polls in Ethiopia" by an anonymous author. 

This account describes the recent evolution of Amhara nationalism and how it might play out during elections in Ethiopia later this month.  

Amhara Move into Western Tigray

 Foreign Policy (subscription only) posted on 28 April 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Tigray War Is Fueling Amhara Expansionism" by Kjetil Tronvoll, Bjorknes University College in Oslo.

The commentary reviews the disputed land claims in Western Tigray by Amhara and Tigrayans, concluding that Amhara militia have used the conflict in Tigray Region to remove most Tigrayans from land claimed by Amhara and incorporate it into Amhara Region.  

Eritrea's Goals in the Red Sea Basin

 The International Crisis Group posted on 6 April 2021 a 45-minute podcast titled "What Eritrea Wants" with Alan Boswell and Harry Verhoeven, a scholar on international politics in Africa.

Following the political transition in Ethiopia and Eritrea's alliances with Gulf states across the Red Sea, Asmara is looking to shape the region in its favor.  According to Verhoeven, Eritrean President Isaias believes the current conflict in Tigray Region is creating new political and security imbalances in the Horn of Africa that open the door to even more conflict.  Isaias is a realist who primarily acts to protect what he has built in Eritrea.

Tension in Northern Ethiopia

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 12 June 2020 an analysis titled "Bridging the Divide in Ethiopia's North."

The ICG analyzes a bitter land dispute between Amhara and Tigray regions in northern Ethiopia that is exacerbated by Ethiopia's delayed elections.  The ICG fears the dispute could escalate into conflict. 

Podcast on Ethiopia's Democratic Renewal

Global Dispatches Podcast ran a half hour interview on 1 August 2019 by Mark Leon Goldberg with William Davidson, senior Ethiopia analyst with the International Crisis Group titled "Ethiopia Is in the Midst of a Rapid Democratic Renewal. Can It Succeed?"

The discussion is a review of events leading up to the election of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and thoughts on where Ethiopia is heading.