Criticism of US Policy in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 10 May 2023 a commentary titled "How the U.S. Fumbled Sudan's Hopes for Democracy" by Robbie Gramer.

This is a sharp criticism of U.S. policy towards Sudan during the events leading up to the outbreak of conflict on 15 April 2023 between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Comment:  While there probably were U.S. policy mistakes during the events leading up to the conflict, this analysis omits one important conclusion.  Most of the blame for the catastrophe in Sudan today lies squarely with the Sudan Armed Forces led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces.  

Power Sharing by Generals in Sudan Is Not the Answer

 The Washington Post published on 18 April 2023 an opinion piece titled "The Eruption of Violence in Sudan Shows the Generals Can't Be Trusted" by Jeffrey Feltman, Brookings Institution and former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa.

An end to the violence in Sudan predicated on power sharing by the two contending military leaders, Sudan Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, will not result in a sustainable end to the conflict.  Feltman argues that the two generals "are not reformers--and that they will never be reformed." 

How To Have a Successful US Horn of Africa Envoy

 Just Security published on 20 April 2022 a commentary titled "How to Fix the Broken Position of U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa" by Cameron Hudson, Atlantic Council.

Two U.S. special envoys for the Horn of Africa--Jeffrey Feltman and David Satterfield--have come and gone over the course of a year.  The Biden administration needs a strategy that takes into account all of the Horn's crises and lays out a clear mandate for the special envoy, who also has the full backing of the National Security Council.  

Conflicting Signals on Ethiopian Peace Prospects

 The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 10 January 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Conflict Dynamics Shift as New U.S. Envoy Takes Over" by Michelle Gavin.  

Recent developments in Ethiopia concerning the civil conflict suggest the possibility of a way forward to achieve a sustainable peace but, at the same time, there are negative developments that threaten to interrupt any progress.  

China and US in Africa: No Need to Choose

 The Hill published on 7 January 2022 an article titled "State: China's Push for Diplomacy in Africa Provides 'Choices' for Countries" by Laura Kelly.

The State Department press spokesperson recently commented that we don't ask our African partners to choose between the US and any other country, including China.  What we seek is not to make Africans choose but to give them choices.  

Ethiopia Grants Amnesty to High Profile Political Detainees

 The Associated Press published on 7 January 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Grants Amnesty to High-profile Political Detainees."

Ethiopia announced on 7 January that it had granted amnesty to opposition figures Jawar Mohammed and Eskinder Nega.  The government said several senior TPLF officials would also be released soon, taking into account their age and health condition.  This development gives some hope that a national political dialogue could follow.    

US Horn of Africa Envoy Leaving Post

 Reuters published on 5 January 2022 an article titled "U.S. Special Envoy for Horn of Africa to Leave Post" by Humeyra Pamuk.

U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, is stepping down this month after 9 months in the position and will be replaced by David Satterfield, the outgoing U.S. ambassador to Turkey.  Feltman took the position with the intention to serve for less than a year.  He has faced twin crises in Ethiopia and Sudan.  Satterfield, a career Foreign Service Officer, has significant Middle East experience, but not in the Horn of Africa.  

Is US Influence Waning in Sudan?

 Foreign Policy posted on 3 December 2021 an analysis titled "The Battle for Khartoum Exposes Waning U.S. Influence" by Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer.

The authors argue that the Sudan crisis offers a window into the messy and often convoluted nature of U.S. diplomacy as the United States' unipolar moment vanishes.  Sudan is a case study in how Washington's inattention to Africa over the decades has sown the seeds of waning U.S. influence across the continent, particularly on issues at the core of U.S. foreign policy, from the promotion of democracy and human rights to the war on terror.

Comment:  The U.S. unipolar moment vanished some time ago. While U.S. influence in Sudan may have experienced a decline in recent weeks, I don't see that anyone else has stepped in to replace it.   

Ethiopian Prime Minister Goes to Battlefront Wherever It Is

 The Associated Press published an article on 24 November 2021 titled "Ethiopia Says PM, a Nobel Peace Laureate, Is at Battlefront."  

As rebel forces slowly approach from the north Ethiopia's capital of Addis Ababa, the government of Ethiopia announced that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived at the battlefront on 23 November to lead Ethiopian National Defense Force troops.

Comment:  The government has not yet shown any pictures of Abiy at the battlefront and it is not entirely clear where exactly the battlefront is located.  For that matter, it is not certain that the rebel forces even intend to try to take Addis Ababa.  It is a multiethnic city.  How would they control or govern it even if they had a military victory?  

How US Can Help End Conflict in Ethiopia

 Foreign Affairs posted on 24 November 2021 a commentary titled "How to Pull Ethiopia Back from the Brink" by Terrence Lyons, George Mason University.

The author said Washington should focus on encouraging a cease fire, even one that is implemented in stages, and seek to shape the subsequent peace talks.

US Fears Military Developments Outrunning Diplomacy in Ethiopia

 The Voice of America posted on 23 November 2021 a story titled "US Envoy Concerned Military Developments in Ethiopia May Outpace Diplomacy."

The US opposes a Tigrayan Defense Force takeover of Addis Abba or cutting the main road between Addis Ababa and Djibouti.  It fears, however, that military developments are overtaking efforts to deescalate the conflict.  

An Endgame in Ethiopia

 World Politics Review published on November 22, 2021 an analysis titled "Getting to a Sustainable Endgame in Ethiopia Will Be an Uphill Climb" by Marine Gassier.  

The author concluded that efforts to seek military solutions to Ethiopia's current political problems will be both devastating and ineffective.  

Ethiopia: Commentary that Will Upset Almost Everyone

 Canada's Macdonald-Laurier Institute posted on 19 November 2021 a commentary titled "Why the US Needs to Reset Its Approach to the Conflict in Ethiopia" by Yonas Birru, former World Bank employee. 

Some element of this commentary will anger nearly every politically aware member of the Ethiopian diaspora and a lot of outside observers.  But that may be a good thing.  Perhaps it is time that everyone consider looking at this conflict from a different perspective.   

Comment on US Africa Policy for TRT World

 Istanbul-based TRT World asked me to comment on US policy in Africa on 18 November 2021.  My brief remarks focused on Sudan and Ethiopia and US efforts to solve those conflicts.  

US Policy Challenges in Ethiopia and Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 16 November 2021 an article titled "Blinken to Africa to Boost US Response to Regional Crises" by Matthew Lee.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Kenya will likely focus on crises in Sudan and Ethiopia that are testing the limits of US diplomacy.  

Ethiopia: Terms for Talks (Maybe) with TPLF

 Agence France Presse published on 11 November 2021 an article titled "Ethiopia Sets Out Terms of Possible Talks with Tigray Rebels" by Robbie Corey-Boulet.  

The government of Ethiopia says before there can be talks with the TPLF, there are three conditions.  The TPLF must stop attacks, pull out of Amhara and Afar regions, and recognize the legitimacy of the Abiy Ahmed government.  The Ethiopian government spokesperson added, however, that even if these conditions are met, no decision has been made to enter into negotiations.  The TPLF responded that pulling out of Amhara and Afar before talks begin is "an absolute non-starter."

US Efforts to Counter Sudan's Coup

 Foreign Affairs published on 11 November 2021 an article titled "Countering Sudan's Coup: The United States Faces a Crucial Test in Khartoum" by Alex de Waal.

The Biden administration's willingness to take action aimed at restoring the democratic transition in Sudan will be crucial in shaping political outcomes throughout the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region.  

More Bite and Less Bark in US Policy towards Sudan and Ethiopia

 Foreign Policy posted on 9 November 2021 a commentary titled "In Ethiopia and Sudan, U.S. Policy Needs Less Talk and More Teeth" by Cameron Hudson, Atlantic Council.  

The author argues that the United States needs to be more forceful, without identifying how, in its policy following the outbreak of civil war in Ethiopia and the military coup d'etat in Sudan.  

Ethiopia: Is There Hope for Dialogue?

 The Associated Press published on 8 November 2021 an article titled "AU Envoy Sees Short 'Window of Opportunity' on Ethiopia War" by Edith M. Lederer.

The African Union special envoy for Ethiopia, Olusegun Obasanjo, believes there is an opening at the moment for negotiations to take place in Ethiopia between the government and rebel forces opposed to the government.  

Ethiopia Challenges US Diplomacy

 Politico published on 5 November 2021 a commentary titled "Biden's Diplomacy Push Meets Its Match as Ethiopia Unravels" by Nahal Toosi.  

The on-going civil war in Ethiopia is exposing the limits of US diplomacy in bringing an end to the conflict.