Assessment of Chinese Financed and Built Light Rail Project in Addis Ababa

 The Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives journal published in March 2026 an in-depth assessment titled "The Road Divides: When Funding Shapes Form - Assessing the Connectivity Impacts of China-financed Light Rail in Addis Ababa" by Guibo Sun, The University of Manchester, and Kristen Zhao, Manchester Metropolitan University.  

Chinese loans provided $475 million for financing most of the Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit (AALRT), a system that rings the capital city.  Completed by Chinese companies almost ten years ago, the system was designed to move up to 60,000 passengers per hour.  AALRT was promoted as a showcase project for the Belt and Road Initiative.

The assessment concludes that AALRT fell far short of its promises.  Chronic service disruptions and limited maintenance funding mean only about a third of its 41 trains are operational, transporting just 55,000 passengers a day, a fraction of its projected capacity.  Instead of alleviating congestion in Addis Ababa, the system has contributed to the creation of new traffic bottlenecks, with daily life in Addis Ababa being impacted by both reduced connectivity and inadequate transfer capacity.

Growing Gap Between Ethiopia's Rich and Poor

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 April 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Capital Problem" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University in Baltimore, Maryland.

The author argues that as the capital city of Addis Ababa rapidly develops, "much of the nation is suffering and decaying."  The gap is growing between the wealthy few and the poor majority and the current trajectory is unsustainable.  

Chinese Stadium Diplomacy in Ethiopia: Cost Overruns and Delays

 The Diplomat published on 31 January 2025 a commentary titled "Chinese Stadium Diplomacy in Africa, Pt 2: Adey Ababa Stadium in Ethiopia" by Istvan Tarrosy and Zoltan Voros. 

The 62,000-seat capacity stadium in Addis Ababa has faced problems since its initiation in 2016.  Chinese State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) was supposed to finish the stadium in September 2022.  Cost overruns and currency devaluation caused disagreements that led to termination of the contract with CSCEC in February 2023.  Ethiopia signed a new contract with China Communications Construction Company.  Although the project has restarted, cost questions remain, and progress is slow.  

Impact of Red Sea Crisis on Chinese Investment in Djibouti

 The South China Morning Post published on 28 December 2024 an article titled "China's Faith in Djibouti Is Paying Off, But Could Red Sea Crisis Muddy the Waters?" by Enoch Wong.

The article notes that Chinese investments in Djibouti are generally profitable, but continuing Yemen-based Houth attacks on Red Sea shipping raise questions concerning the future of trade through Djibouti.  A Houthi-created crisis that continues for an extended period of time could have negative consequences for Chinese investments in the region.

Climate Change to Impact Addis Ababa Negatively

 The Conversation published on 13 September 2023 a commentary titled "Addis Ababa Faces Growing Climate Change Risks Like Heat, Drought and Floods, Study Warns" by Abay Yimere, Addis Ababa University.

Due to climate change, Addis Ababa will likely face increased heatwaves, extreme drought, and severe flooding in the future.  

Chinese-financed and Built Light Rail in Addis Ababa Faces Maintenance Problems

 The South China Morning Post published on 17 February 2023 an article titled "China Hands a Lifeline to Ethiopian Capital's Crumbling Light Rail" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

With more than half of the train cars out of service due to maintenance issues, China has agreed to provide spare parts for the Addis Ababa light rail system financed and built by China.  The system opened in 2015.  Maintenance of Chinese-built rail projects has been an issue elsewhere in the region.  

China-built Light Rail in Addis Ababa Faces Problems

 The Diplomat published on 3 February 2023 a report titled "China and Ethiopia: The Addis Light Train Stuck in Slow Motion" by Istvan Tarrosy and Zoltan Voros, both at University of Pecs in Hungary.

Since opening in 2015, the Chinese-built light rail system in Addis Ababa has experienced electrical outages, most of the trains no longer function, and ridership has fallen from a high of 105-110,000 daily passengers to 56,000 today.  Repairs and maintenance have posed a challenge.

Comment: It sounds like the Metro system in Washington except that the Addis Ababa light rail began operating in 2015 and part of the Washington system has been around since 1976.

China Sponsors Horn of Africa Peace Conference: Engineers Not Weapons?

 China is convening a Horn of Africa peace conference in Addis Ababa on June 20-21.  In an earlier article titled "Xue Bing: Beijing Will Send Engineers, Not Weapons, to Horn of Africa" by Aggrey Mutambo, The East African interviewed Xue Bing, China's special envoy for the Horn of Africa. 

In the interview, Xue Bing said in connection with Beijing's peace initiative "China will send out engineers and students.  We don't send out weapons."

Comment:  There seems to be a disconnect here.  According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's Arms Transfers Database, China transferred from 2010 through 2021 the following dollar amounts of conventional weapons to countries in the Horn of Africa:  Sudan $254 million, Ethiopia $81 million, Kenya $40 million, Djibouti $37 million, South Sudan $12 million, and Somalia $2 million.  These figures do not include transfers of small arms and light weapons.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Goes to Battlefront Wherever It Is

 The Associated Press published an article on 24 November 2021 titled "Ethiopia Says PM, a Nobel Peace Laureate, Is at Battlefront."  

As rebel forces slowly approach from the north Ethiopia's capital of Addis Ababa, the government of Ethiopia announced that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived at the battlefront on 23 November to lead Ethiopian National Defense Force troops.

Comment:  The government has not yet shown any pictures of Abiy at the battlefront and it is not entirely clear where exactly the battlefront is located.  For that matter, it is not certain that the rebel forces even intend to try to take Addis Ababa.  It is a multiethnic city.  How would they control or govern it even if they had a military victory?  

Ethiopia: Calls for Ceasefire, State of Emergency Declared, Voluntary Departure for US Embassy Staff

 Reuters published on 4 November 2021 an article titled "Calls for Ceasefire in Ethiopia Grow Amid Deepening Conflict."

As the civil war widens in Ethiopia, Tigrayan forces are reportedly 200 miles from the capital of Addis Ababa.  Calls are increasing for a ceasefire from African leaders and the international community.  The central government has declared a six month state of emergency.  The US embassy has authorized the voluntary departure of family members and non-essential personnel.  

Aljazeera Interview on Situation in Ethiopia

 Aljazeera interviewed me on 2 November 2021 concerning the situation in Ethiopia.  The five minute segment focused on the current fighting in Amhara Region.  

Ethiopian Civil War Widens

 The Washington Post published on 2 November 2021 an article titled "Ethiopians Mobilize as Advance of Rebel Groups Toward Capital Threatens Wider Civil War" by Max Bearak.

The article reports the apparent linking up of Tigrayan forces and those from the Oromo Liberation Army in an effort to topple the Abiy government.  This would be an historic, albeit likely temporary, alliance.  

Addis Ababa City Officials Warn of Possible Attack

 Agence France Presse published on 2 November 2021 an article titled "Addis Ababa Orders City to Prepare as Fighting Rocks North."

Addis Ababa city officials have instructed residents to prepare to protect their neighborhoods from a possible invasion by Tigrayan forces.  

Ethiopia's Changing Economy Through the Eyes of Street Hustlers

Ethiopia Insight published on 14 November 2019 a commentary titled "Hustling at 'the End of History'. Development and Inequality in Inner Addis" by Marco Di Nunzio.

The author looks at the transition of the Ethiopian economy from Meles Zenawi's statism to Abiy Ahmed's market economy through the eyes of Addis Ababa street hustlers.

Addis Ababa to Djibouti: Riding the Rails

The New York Times posted on 8 April 2019 a story titled "A Remarkable Rail Journey Into the Horn of Africa's Past, and Future" by Henry Wismayer.

This is a travel account of a trip on the new Chinese-built railway from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to the coast of Djibouti.

Ethiopia: Should the Capital of Oromia Move Out of Addis Ababa?

Ethiopia Insight posted on 29 March 2019 a commentary titled "Rival Capital Camps Must Face Finfinnee Facts" by Olaana Abbaaxiiqi, a pen name for a lawyer who lives in the United States.

This is the author's response to criticism that he received when he suggested Oromia state in Ethiopia should build a new capital outside the federal capital of Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Is a Federal District and Not an Oromo City

Ethiopia Insight posted on 10 February 2019 a commentary titled "Let's End Finfinnee Saga, and Shoot for the Stars" by Olaana Abbaaxiiqi, a pen name for a lawyer who lives in the United States.

The author explains that according to the Ethiopian constitution, Addis Ababa is a federal district and not an Oromo city as many Oromo believe, in part because it is surrounded by ethnic Oromos. Rather than claim Addis Ababa as the capital of Oromia, the author suggests the leaders of Oromia build a new planned city as the capital of Oromia in order to get beyond disagreements over the status of Addis Ababa.

Djibouti-Addis Ababa Railway and Role of China

The New York Times published on 7 February 2017 an article titled "Joyous Africans Take to the Rails, with China's Help" by Andrew Jacobs.

The article credits China for its financing and building a new railway between Djibouti and Addis Ababa, noting that the United States did not have the vision to take on the project. Actually, the problem in the United States is less about vision and more about lack of financing.

Should All African Union Summits Take Place in Addis Ababa?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published a provocative commentary on 20 June 2014 titled "Should All African Union Summits Take Place in Addis Ababa?" by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS consultant.  The author suggests that for cost and other reasons, all African Union summits should be held at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa.