Aljazeera published on 19 October 2026 an article titled "'Weight of Responsibility': Promise and Perils of Covering Ethiopia's War" by Mohammed Taha Tawakel.
This is an account of the challenges covering the war in Tigray Region by an Aljazeera team, which was in Mekelle the day federal government troops seized the capital.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review."
The update describes security and political developments in Ethiopia's Tigray Region since 8 October. Rebel Tigray forces claim to have captured some towns in central Tigray and rebel Amhara Fano militia occupied a few villages in Amhara Region. The central government set up a caretaker government in Mekele, the capital of Tigray Region.
The International Crisis Group posted on 13 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On the Cusp of War" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.
The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is gaining control over larger parts of Tigray Region while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has faced reversals and appears to be moving towards asymmetric warfare. The TPLF is more divided today that it was during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.
There are credible reports that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) have joined the TPLF in Tigray Region and it will now be difficult to convince the ENDF to stop pursuing both the TPLF and the EDF anywhere inside Ethiopia It is less clear how extensive is the EDF incursion into Ethiopia. Should this result in an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, geography and military capacity favor Ethiopia. In the event of war, external support for both sides is problematic. Eritrea might get some assistance from Egypt.
It is important for external powers to encourage both sides to deescalate the situation. Eventually there needs to be dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The existence of external actors with separate agendas makes dialogue and a peaceful resolution of the dispute more difficult.
The International Crisis Group posted on 12 October 2026 a commentary titled "Pulling Ethiopia and Eritrea Back from War."
As Ethiopia and Eritrea slide closer to war, the International Crisis Group urges regional governments and those further away to press both sides to avoid escalation. It also seeks more engagement by the UN Security Council.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Liam Karr.
This is a summary of the fighting in Ethiopia as of 9 October.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 October 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo.
Ethiopian federal forces have almost completely reversed Afar and Tigrayan rebel gains in Afar Region. They have also continued advancing on main roads toward Mekele, capital of Tigray Region. Rebel forces have launched drone strikes on federal facilities in the vicinity of Addis Ababa and elsewhere.
Foreign Policy published on 30 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Return to War Threatens to Engulf the Horn of Africa" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.
Ethiopia is facing a new civil war as a powerful El Nino threatens crop production in the country. The author argues that Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan could be drawn in to the conflict.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 1 October 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Counteroffensive into Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
The Ethiopian National Defense Force repelled the rebel offensive in northern Ethiopia and launched a counteroffensive aimed at Mekele, capital of Tigray Region. Rebel forces continue to control parts of Afar Region's northernmost zone.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 September 2026 an update titled "Ethiopia War Security Review" by Michael DeAngelo.
Rebel Tigray and Afar forces advanced in northern Afar region while the Ethiopian National Defense Forces reversed rebel Tigray and Amhara force advances around southern Tigray Region. Ethiopia accused Egypt, Eritrea, and the Sudan Armed Forces of supporting the rebel coalition.
Journalist Martin Plaut posted on 28 September 2026 a summary titled "A Brief Update on Ethiopia's 2026 War."
Fighting is escalating in Ethiopia. On the Afar front, Tigray Defense Forces and allied Afar militants have gained the upper hand. The military situation remains fluid along the Amhara-Tigray front. Eritrean forces have established an alliance with the ruling party in Tigray. Regional alliances are in flux.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Ethiopian Rebels Launch Major Offensive" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched an offensive against federal forces in northern Ethiopia. The fighting has expanded to the Tigray/Afar border region. The offensive likely aims to consolidate the TPLF's control of Tigray region and its rear supply lines.
The International Crisis Group published on 25 September 2026 a commentary titled "Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia."
Ethiopia's Tigray Region is slipping into renewed war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and Amhara Fano militias, on one side, and the federal government and allied Tigrayan forces on the other. Fighting is concentrated in the Amhara-southern Tigray border area and along the Tigray-Afar border. The situation could escalate out of control.
Aljazeera published on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Fighting Widens across Ethiopia as Tigray Clashes Escalate" by Faisal Ali.
Officials in Ethiopia's Tigray Region claim federal government troops have launched a "full-scale offensive" against it while the central government charges that the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched the attack. Whatever the case, the security situation in Tigray Region and neighboring territory has deteriorated.
The BBC posted on 21 September 2026 an article titled "Seven Ethiopia Rebel Groups Form New Alliance" by Michael Teferi and Basillioh Rukanga.
The Fano militia in Amhara region, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and four smaller organizations in Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions have created a coalition named Alliance for Survival to oppose the Abiy Ahmed government.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The article describes Tigray Defense Force efforts to take territory held by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Amhara militias. The heightened tensions could spark a broader conflict with Eritrea. Should war break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Egypt and the UAE would likely get pulled into it.
The International Crisis Group posted on 15 January 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Alan Boswell.
Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to grow. Both countries are increasing their purchase of weapons and extending their competition into the conflict in Sudan. International pressure may be restraining direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The political space in Tigray Region continues to fragment, although the faction aligned with Eritrea now has the upper hand.
Landlocked Ethiopia is pressing its effort to gain access to the Red Sea, now focusing on Eritrea's port of Assab, which is driving the tension with Asmara. Eritrea takes the position that it cannot negotiate its sovereign territory. Both countries also compete to be seen as leaders in the region.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging in open conflict in Yemen and in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea wants Saudi Arabia to counter UAE influence in the region. Addis Ababa probably viewed Israel's recognition of Somaliland favorably while Asmara opposed it.
One development that would improve relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is an end to the conflict in Sudan. This would remove a point of contention and open the door to a rapprochement.
The Economist posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Is Perilously Close to Another War."
Political divisions within Tigray Region and worsening relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Ethiopia's goal of achieving access to the sea are raising the prospect of yet another war in the region.
Tigrai Press aired a 40-minute video interview with me on 19 November 2025. Bisrat Bahta asked the questions, all of which dealt with current issues in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia Insight published on 19 November 2025 a commentary titled "Waging Peace in Tigray, a Land Haunted by War" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.
As the Pretoria Agreement unravels, the path forward in Tigray Region is threatened not just by the tension but by a political culture still in the grip of a stifling party-state and collective trauma. The author calls for internal Tigrayan reconciliation as the only route to a peaceful future.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.
Growing political tension in Tigray Region is expanding into neighboring Afar Region. Tigray Defense Forces linked to the Tigray People's Liberation Front are trying to degrade the opposition Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), based in Afar Region near the border with Tigray.
