Ethiopia: Tigray Since the Pretoria Agreement

The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2026 a study titled "Peace and Instability: Tigray since the Pretoria Agreement."

The analysis examines the post-2022 period in Tigray following the Pretoria Agreement, which halted large-scale fighting but left key drivers of conflict unresolved.  It highlights how territorial disputes, political exclusion, and stalled processes have created a fragile peace, with the risk of renewed large-scale conflict remaining.  

Ethiopia and Eritrea Play Cat and Mouse Along Border

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.  

Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas.  Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.

Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda. 

The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.   

A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online.  Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world.  Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"  

Waging Peace in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 19 November 2025 a commentary titled "Waging Peace in Tigray, a Land Haunted by War" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.

As the Pretoria Agreement unravels, the path forward in Tigray Region is threatened not just by the tension but by a political culture still in the grip of a stifling party-state and collective trauma.  The author calls for internal Tigrayan reconciliation as the only route to a peaceful future.  

Ethiopia's Tigray Crisis Spills into Afar Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.

Growing political tension in Tigray Region is expanding into neighboring Afar Region.  Tigray Defense Forces linked to the Tigray People's Liberation Front are trying to degrade the opposition Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), based in Afar Region near the border with Tigray.