Somali States Align Against Mogadishu

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Puntland Standoff with the Federal Government of Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.

Ties between the Somali government in Mogadishu and Puntland state continue to deteriorate as Mogadishu implements its constitutional and electoral agenda.  The national Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition, which includes Puntland and Jubaland states and leading Somali opposition figures, has threatened to hold parallel elections and establish new government structures if Mogadishu continues to implement its agenda.  

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Parliamentary Elections

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."

The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.

Status of the UN Mission in South Sudan

 The Stimson Center published on 24 June 2026 a report titled "The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics."

The report concludes that the combined effects of a fragile peace process, heightened political tensions, economic deterioration, the spillover of conflict from Sudan, the emerging Ebola crisis in the neighboring DRC, and growing humanitarian pressures have created a volatile environment in South Sudan.

South Sudan continues to grapple with unresolved questions surrounding the political transition and the lack of implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which remains the primary political framework for addressing the conflict and advancing sustainable peace.  

Somalia, Al-Shabaab, and the Future

 The International Crisis Group published on 30 June 2026 an analysis titled "New Chapter, Same Stalemate: Somalia's War with Al-Shabaab."

This analysis describes the ebb and flow of al-Shabaab's war with the Somali government since 2022.  It concludes that while Mogadishu faces several big challenges, it retains the military capability, in terms of personnel and resources, to hold the line, provided that external support does not abruptly disappear.

Meanwhile, despite al-Shabaab's pragmatic shifts in its approach to ruling areas under its control, its unpopularity among those it governs remains a roadblock for its attempts to supplant the Somali government.  

With neither side able to defeat the other, the war in Somalia is fundamentally at a stalemate with no end in sight.

Kenya's President Reaches Out to Somali Minority

 Foreign Policy published on 25 June 2026 an article titled "Will Kenya's Ruto Finally Reconcile with the Country's Somali Minority?" by Joseph Maina. 

Kenyan President William Ruto has reached out to the country's minority Somali population to bring them more effectively into Kenyan society.  Some Kenyans are skeptical that Ruto's outreach to the Somalis is sincere.  

Ethiopian Politics after the 2026 National Elections

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans in the Washington area, posted on 18 June 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Road Ahead: Politics After the 2026 Election."

This commentary provides an overview of the national elections that took place in Ethiopia earlier this month.  It assumes a landslide victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party but highlights several problems that occurred during the elections.  Abren predicts the acceleration of market liberalization and a continuing effort by the government to obtain access to the sea.  

Zambia's Reasons for Cancelling Major Human Rights Summit

 Just Security published on 2 June 2026 a commentary titled "In Addition to Chinese Pressure, a Backsliding Democracy May Explain Zambia's Decision to Cancel a Major Human Rights Summit" by Jane Munga and Steve Feldstein.

Days before 2,600 human rights defenders, technologists, and policymakers were expected in Lusaka, Zambia, on April 30, the Zambian government called off RightsCon, the world's largest conference on digital rights.  

According to the summit organizers, the cancellation was due to foreign interference from China "because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person."  But a closer look reveals a more complicated picture linked to Zambia's democratic decline and more repressive policies.  

Turkey Tries to Mediate Somali Political Dispute

 Facility for Talo and Leadership Somalia, a policy institute and training center, posted on 9 June 2026 an article titled "Turkish Delegation Works to Ease Somalia Election Standoff."

A Turkish delegation visited Mogadishu in an effort to facilitate direct negotiations between President Hassan Sheikh and his political opponents concerning a postponed election.  Turkey has frequently intervened to mediate disputes in Somalia.  

Fighting Erupts in Somalia's Capital

 The New York Times published on 4 June 2026 an article titled "What to Know About the Fighting in Somalia's Capital, Mogadishu" by Hussein Mohamed and Matthew Mpoke Bigg.

On 4 June, government forces began fighting militia groups loyal to two of the president's rivals in Mogadishu, resulting in the worst violence there in years.  The clashes stemmed from Parliament's contentious decision to extend President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term of office for another year beyond its expiration date.

Censorship in Runup to Ethiopia's Elections

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 29 May 2026 an article titled "'Under the Shadow of Fear': Censorship Is Ethiopia's Real Election Story, Journalists Say."

Intimidation of the press is becoming the norm in the runup to Ethiopia's national elections.  Numerous reporters have experienced a variety of challenges as they attempt to cover the elections. 

Local Militia in Amhara Region Disrupts Ethiopian Elections

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 28 May 2026 an article titled "Fano Disrupts Ethiopian Elections" by Michael DeAngelo.

Fano militia has stepped up its attacks in Amhara Region as Ethiopia approaches national elections on June 1.  The federal government announced it will not hold elections in at least 8 of Amhara's 138 constituencies due to insecurity.

Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Has Wide Implications

 The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2026 an analysis titled "Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray: Averting a Return to War" by Magnus Taylor.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of Debretsion Gebremichael has seized control of the federal government supported Tigrayan administration in Mekele in a power grab.  This is a direct challenge to the federal government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  

The situation is further complicated because the TPLF has the support of neighboring Eritrea and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) government in Khartoum.  For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government has been supportive of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is engaged in a civil war with the SAF.  Egypt may also join the fray on the side of the TPLF in order to complicate life for Addis Ababa as it builds dams on the Blue Nile, raising concerns in Cairo.  

Podcast on Situation in Somalia and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 30 April 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Election Standoff and New Inflection Point" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.  

Issues discussed include Somalia's latest electoral crisis, tensions with federal member states, the future of the African Union mission in Somalia, the fight against al-Shabaab, and the growing role of external powers, especially Türkiye in Somali politics, and Israel in Somaliland.  

Omar Mahmood offers an especially clear explanation of the current electoral situation in Somalia.  Technically, 15 May is the end of the current government's term, but the situation is actually more complicated.  The current government argues it has one more year in power; the opposition says it ends on 15 May.  In any event, there will not be elections on 15 May.  

Instability in the Kenya--Somalia-Ethiopia Borderlands

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 15 April 2026 a paper titled "Instability in the Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia Borderlands" by Christopher Hockey, Timothy Kimaiyo, and Martine Zeuthen.  

The paper provides critical insights into the complex dynamics of instability in the Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia borderlands.  It highlights the interconnected challenges of violent extremism, gender-based violence, ethnic tensions, political instability and resource pressures, offering practical recommendations for future interventions.

Ethiopia: Tigray Since the Pretoria Agreement

The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2026 a study titled "Peace and Instability: Tigray since the Pretoria Agreement."

The analysis examines the post-2022 period in Tigray following the Pretoria Agreement, which halted large-scale fighting but left key drivers of conflict unresolved.  It highlights how territorial disputes, political exclusion, and stalled processes have created a fragile peace, with the risk of renewed large-scale conflict remaining.  

War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Averted for Time Being

 The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia - Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Ethiopian Federal Government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) by one year on 8 April.  This may buy time for both sides and avert a return to war in Tigray Region.  

Are June Elections Viable in Ethiopia?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 28 March 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Heads to Elections Amid War and Instability" by Eyob Tilahun Abera, Mekelle University.

Ethiopia is scheduled to have national elections in June.  Scattered conflict in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions poses serious challenges to organizing and campaigning.  The author argues that elections held under such conditions could deepen divisions within the country.

Ten African Security Trends in 2025

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published in December 2025 an infographic titled "Ten African Security Trends from 2025 in Graphics."

The paper covers the following issues:

--Sudan Fragmentation Strains Region

--Militant Islamist Group Momentum

--Impunity and Abuses of Power

--China and Russia Expand Foothold

--Growing Gulf Actor Competition

--Escalated Fighting in the DRC

--Regional Instability Impacts Nigeria

--Evolving Warfare Technology

--Urbanization and Youth Protests

--Progress toward Agenda 2063

Tanzania's Election Violence: US and EU Reassess While China and Russia Expand Ties

Chatham House published on 4 December 2025 an analysis titled "Tanzania's Election Violence: Deflecting Blame Will Only Do More Harm" by Fergus Kell. 

Tanzania held elections last October that resulted in extensive violence and hundreds of civilian deaths.  Key opponents to President Samia Suluhu Hassan were prevented from competing.  Polling stations were nearly empty on election day.  The government declared Samia the winner with 98 percent of the vote and a turnout of nearly 33 million in a country where the entire voting age population is 35 million.  Violence quickly broke out.

The United States and European Union have been critical of the election and are reassessing their relationship with Tanzania.  China and Russia have remained uncritical.  China is moving forward with a $1.4 billion project to refurbish the Tanzania-Zambia Railway while Russia continues to pursue its $1.2 billion uranium project.  

Navigating Federalism and Elections in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a policy brief titled "Somalia's 2026 Mandate Test: Navigating Elections and Federal Tensions."

This policy brief examines the federal government's evolving role in Federal Member States' elections, the competing interpretations of constitutional authority, and the political and logistical obstacles to direct voting.