Democracy Index 2024 and Africa

The Economist Intelligence Unit has just released its "Democracy Index 2024."   The index provides a snapshot of the state of democracy in 165 independent states and two territories.  The index is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties.  Each country is classified as one of four types of regime: full democracy (25 countries), flawed democracy (46), hybrid regime (36), or authoritarian regime (60).

The index ranks 50 African countries.  The only one in the full democracy category is Mauritius (#20).  Six are flawed democracies: Botswana (#35), Cabo Verde (#37), South Africa (#43), Namibia (#58), Ghana (#65), and Lesotho (#70).  Sixteen are hybrid regimes and 27 are authoritarian regimes.  In Africa, the Central African Republic (#164) is at the bottom and Sudan is not much better (#162).

By comparison, the United States is a flawed democracy at number 28 and China is an authoritarian regime at number 145.

Fixing Somalia's Political System

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2024 a report titled "18 Months to Fix Somalia's Broken Political Trajectory."

Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2026, giving Somalia 18 months to restore trust in the political system.  Without urgent reforms, Somalia risks further political instability.  The paper offers recommendations for building political consensus and international confidence.  

Peaceful Somaliland Elections but Serious Neighborhood Strains

 The International Crisis Group published on 11 December 2024 an analysis titled "Somaliland's Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains" by Omar Mahmood.  

Somaliland held presidential elections in mid-November, ending in victory for the opposition and a swift concession by the incumbent.  While the peaceful transfer of power marked a welcome outcome, the run-up to the vote was far from smooth.  Serious issues also remain involving neighboring Somalia, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.  

South Sudan: A Road to Recovery?

 The October 2024 issue of the Foreign Service Journal has an article titled "South Sudan at 13: Reflections on Crisis, Aid, and the Road to Recovery" by Julius Kaut.  

South Sudan remains in crisis and dependent on humanitarian aid.  The civil war in Sudan has interrupted the flow of oil and elections scheduled for December may not take place.  Yet, the author remains optimistic about South Sudan's future.  

Podcast on Africa and US Elections

 This is a one hour and 15-minute Beyond Africa podcast with me hosted by Bernard Ngalim.  The major issues discussed are the impact of the upcoming election in the United States on Africa policy, Project 2025 and Africa, trade, aid, investment, and the role of the U.S. private sector.  

Is South Sudan Approaching Point of No Return?

 The International Crisis Group published on 11 September 2024 an analysis titled "High Stakes for the South Sudan Talks in Kenya" by Daniel Akech.  

Kenya is mediating talks in Nairobi between Salwa Kiir's South Sudan government and exiled opposition leaders.  National elections scheduled for December are in doubt, South Sudan is facing a humanitarian crisis as oil revenue falls, divisions have developed in the Kiir government, and Riek Machar's party has withdrawn from the talks. The negotiations in Nairobi are imperiled.

Ethiopian-American to Head Harris Transition Team

 NBC News published on 23 August 2024 an article titled "Harris Transition Team Takes Shape with a Biden Official in Key Post" by Aaron Gilchrist.

The Kamala Harris campaign tapped Ethiopian-American and current ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Yohannes Abraham, to head the presidential transition team if she wins the upcoming election against Donald Trump.  In 2020, Yohannes was the executive director of the Biden transition team.  He was born in Virginia; his parents immigrated from Ethiopia.  

Podcast on US Elections, Africa Policy, and Horn of Africa

 Tigrai Press posted on 28 July 2024 a one-hour podcast with me hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  The conversation focuses initially on the election campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, implications of the election for Africa policy, and Project 2025.  The remainder of the podcast deals with many of the ongoing issues in the Horn of Africa.   

Can Somalia Implement Universal Suffrage?

 World Politics Review published on 7 June 2024 an analysis titled "Somalia's Constitutional Revision Is Deepening Political Divisions" by Omar Mahmood, International Crisis Group.

The author argues that Somalia's leaders are signaling their seriousness to hold parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for February 2026 under a universal suffrage model in line with the country's constitutional review.  Given security challenges and the enormous technical work required, previous attempts to do so repeatedly fell short in a country that hasn't conducted an open universal suffrage election in over fifty years.

US-Niger Relations: Countering Russia

 War on the Rocks published on 3 June 2024 a commentary titled "Why Washington Failed in Niger" by Nathaniel Powell, Oxford Analytica.

Some 1,000 U.S. troops will complete their pullout from Niger at the request of the Nigerien government by 15 September.  A small number of Russian troops has arrived as replacements for the U.S. troops.  Rather than prioritizing security assistance in Africa, the author argues the United States would be better advised to fill shortfalls in humanitarian funding and providing better access to U.S. markets for the continent's agriculture.

War in Sudan Disrupts South Sudan's Oil Exports

 The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2024 a commentary titled "South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbor's War Disrupts Oil Exports."

The civil war in Sudan has severely disrupted oil transported by pipeline from South Sudan to Port Sudan, depriving southerners of petrodollars, the government's main source of revenue.  One of these pipelines, responsible for about two thirds of South Sudan's oil exports, broke down in February and will require months of complex repairs that must be made amid active combat.

South Sudan's government will run out of money and the national currency's value will plunge.  Chronic food shortages will worsen, presaging renewed instability and fighting.  

South Africa's Inkatha Freedom Party and US-China Competition

 The Hudson Institute posted on 26 April 2024 an hour plus podcast titled "South Africa's Historic Election: A Conversation with Inkatha Freedom Party National Spokesperson Mkhuleko Hlengwa" and Hudson Senior Fellow Joshua Meservey.

The discussion between minute 37 and 1 hour and 2 minutes dealt with US-China competition in Africa and the Inkatha Freedom Party's (IFP) relations with China.  (The IFP is South Africa's fourth largest political party.)  The spokesperson criticized China's lack of transparency but emphasized that China is an economic powerhouse with money.  Hence you have to take it seriously.  He added it is important that South Africa pursue its own interests vis-a-vis both China and the United States, including a concern about human rights.

The IFP interacts with the Dalai Lama and Taiwan, both anathema to China, because of its historical relationship with them.  The Chinese embassy in South Africa has expressed its unhappiness with the IFP.  But the IFP also deals with China on a range of other issues and does not have an antagonistic relationship with China.  The embassy extended a standing invitation to the IFP to visit China and Tibet.  When pressed why African countries, including South Africa, have not been critical of China's policy in Xinjiang, the spokesperson replied that you dare not antagonize Beijing on such issues.  

China Should Pay Attention to Africa's Year of Elections

 The Ghana-based Africa-China Centre for Policy & Advisory published in April 2024 a commentary titled "The Year of African Elections & Why China Should Not Lose Sight" by Hagan Sibiri.

In 2024, 25 African countries are scheduled for presidential, general, or local elections; 19 are presidential or general.  The author warns that Chinese policymakers should not overlook growing dynamics in African domestic politics and the potential ramifications of African elections on future interaction with China.

Any perception held by Chinese policymakers that Africa constitutes a relatively cohesive coalition in its partnership with China should be reevaluated as it risks overlooking the growing concerns toward Chinese partnerships in numerous African countries.  Given the rising manifestation of anti-Chinese sentiment across Africa, the outcomes of African elections should interest Chinese policymakers in terms of how they may shape China's relations with the continent moving forward.  

US Special Envoy for Sudan Discusses Prospects for Peace

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 April 2024 a 38-minute podcast titled "New U.S. Envoy on Ending Sudan's War" with Tom Perriello, U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, and Alan Boswell.  

Perriello said the immediate goal is to resume talks in Jeddah hosted by Saudi Arabia and the United States with key actors in the dispute and to seek agreement for an end to the fighting and eventually a return to establishing a civilian government in Sudan.  The talks need to be inclusive and consolidate earlier peace processes.

A split or divided Sudan would not be a good outcome.  The major challenge to peace is the lack of trust among the belligerents and ensuring that Sudan's civil society is part of the process.  Perriello is hopeful the sharply deteriorated humanitarian situation will serve as an incentive for all actors to make a more concentrated effort to end the fighting.

State Building in a Somali Region: Galmudug

 The Heritage Institute published in March 2024 a study titled "Galmudug: Governance, State Formation, Conflict Dynamics, and Reconciliation" by Yusuf Sheikh Omar and Ahmed Barre.

The study investigates factors shaping the processes of state formation in Galmudug such as clan politics, economic considerations, conflict dynamics, governance, elections, the condition of internally displaced persons, peace, and reconciliation processes.  

UN Human Rights Report on South Sudan

 The UN Human Rights Council published on 29 February 2024 an unedited version of its "Report of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan." 

The report details a range of human rights violations, abuses, and related crimes, including systematic political repression and economic predation by political elites.  Women continue to endure pervasive discrimination, inequality, sexual violence, and sexual slavery.  Children suffer egregious violations, arising from the ongoing insurgency and resurgent subnational violence, fueled by local and national elites.

Podcast with Somalia's Deputy Prime Minister

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosted on 26 February 2024 a one-hour podcast titled "Security in the Horn of Africa: A Discussion with Somalia's Deputy Prime Minister" Salah Jama, moderated by Mvemba Phezo Dizolele.  

This is an informative and wide-ranging discussion of developments in the Horn of Africa with an emphasis on their implications for Somalia.

The Rise of Somaliland

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 25 January 2024 a backgrounder titled "Somaliland: The Horn of Africa's Breakaway State" by Mariel Ferragamo and Claire Klobucista.  

This is a useful update and background piece on the situation in Somaliland since its unilateral declaration of independence in 1991.

Ethiopia: Threat to Harari Culture

 Ethiopia Insight published on 7 December 2023 a commentary titled "Hararis in Harar Are Being Erased and Dispossessed" by Abdullah Sherif, a leader of the Harari community in Toronto.  

The author argues that Oromo extremism poses an existential threat to Hararis in Harar.  Given their small numbers (well under one percent of Ethiopia's population), constant intimidation, and abandonment by the central government, Hararis in Harar are suffering in silence.  Harari culture is being appropriated, its land and property stolen, and politics undermined.  

Avoiding Conflict in Somalia's Galmudug State

 The International Crisis Group published on 25 September 2023 an analysis titled "Avoiding a New Cycle of Conflict in Somalia's Galmudug State."

The Somali federal member state of Galmudug has experienced recurrent strife during its eight-year existence.  The causes are elite infighting, clan rivalries and battles with non-state armed groups.  Interference from Mogadishu often worsens matters.  Though Galmudug is quiet at present, elections likely coming in 2024 could increase tensions.  The al-Shabaab insurgency is also strong in the area.