The International Crisis Group published on 11 December 2024 an analysis titled "Somaliland's Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains" by Omar Mahmood.
Somaliland held presidential elections in mid-November, ending in victory for the opposition and a swift concession by the incumbent. While the peaceful transfer of power marked a welcome outcome, the run-up to the vote was far from smooth. Serious issues also remain involving neighboring Somalia, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
The Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, an independent research institution, published on 1 April 2024 an analysis titled "The Ethiopian-Somali Red Sea Agreement in the Context of the Geopolitical Rivalry in the Horn of Africa" by Hakeem Alade Najimdeen, a Nigerian researcher.
A West African researcher provides an analysis of the controversial and oft discussed Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Ethiopia Insight published on 8 March 2024 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Somaliland Gambit Rattles a Shaky Horn" by Jussi Grut, a researcher focusing on the history and politics of East Africa.
The author concludes that while conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia is unlikely, this diplomatic row is further destabilizing a fragile region. It may also revive the possibility of closer ties between the Ogaden National Liberation Front in Ethiopia and an increasingly upset Somalia. Without significant investments in infrastructure, the Memorandum of Understanding is not likely to affect Ethiopia's import or export of goods.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 6 March 2024 a Q & A titled "The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal."
The Q and A with ICG experts covers a wide range of issues. The one new significant fact to come out of the discussion is that the proposed Ethiopian naval base on Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast is expected to constitute 20 square kilometers of land and sea at an undetermined location rather than the earlier stated 20 kilometers of coastline. This makes more sense as the 20 kilometers of coastline never specified how deep it would go into Somaliland or how much water area it would occupy.
The International Crisis Group posted on 7 February 2024 a 36-minute podcast titled "Somalia, Somaliland and the Explosive Port Deal" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.
The discussion focused on the reaction of Somalia, the possibility that the deal may contribute to conflict in the region, and the position of Ethiopia and Somaliland going forward. From Somaliland's perspective the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is straightforward acceptance of a 50-year lease for a naval base on its coast in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland.
Details of the MOU have still not been made public. At this point, it seems to be more of a declaration of intent. For example, there is no agreement where Ethiopia's naval base will be located, although it apparently will not be at Somaliland's current port of Berbera.
The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 January 2024 an analysis titled "On the Edge: The Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU" by Aleksi Ylonen.
This is an analysis from the perspective of an Italian think tank of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The MOU says Ethiopia will consider recognition of Somaliland in exchange for port access and a 50-year lease of land for a military base on Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast.
Somaliland's Saxafi Media published on 4 February 2024 an article titled "UN Security Council Redirects Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal Dispute to IGAD, AU."
An Ethiopian official said the UN Security Council has redirected Somalia's request to consider the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) or the African Union for resolution. Ethiopia than requested that IGAD host a summit to discuss the issue. The official added that Ethiopia's commitment to realizing sea access is second only to completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
World Politics Review published on 2 February 2024 an analysis titled "The Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Could Sink Djibouti's Economy" by Francisco Serrano.
The port of Djibouti accounts for 95 percent of Ethiopia's trade and 75 percent of Djibouti's GDP is dependent on transport services with Ethiopia. The deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, if it materializes, could have a huge negative impact on Djibouti.
The Elephant published on 23 January 2024 an analysis titled "Unveiling the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU: Hopes and Uncertainties" by Mehari Taddele Maru, European University Institute in Florence, Italy.
Although the text of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland has not been made public, based on what is known the author analyzes the significance of the document for a wide variety of interested parties.
The author concludes that, for Ethiopia, the MOU diverts attention from internal conflicts, famine, and economic woes. For Somaliland, it potentially opens doors to international recognition, legitimizing President Muse Bihi Abdi's government, but it may also intensify conflicts in areas such as Laascaanood and Sool. For Somalia, it represents a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, necessitating an outright rejection of the MOU and the seeking of support from regional allies such as Egypt, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia.
The Council on Foreign Relations published on 25 January 2024 a backgrounder titled "Somaliland: The Horn of Africa's Breakaway State" by Mariel Ferragamo and Claire Klobucista.
This is a useful update and background piece on the situation in Somaliland since its unilateral declaration of independence in 1991.
India's Observer Research Foundation published on 25 January 2024 an analysis titled "Understanding Ethiopia's Port Deal with Somaliland and Its Geopolitical Implications" by Samir Bhattacharya, Vivekananda International Foundation.
The author concluded that the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland has further increased the level of uncertainty in an already volatile region, causing dissatisfaction among multiple stakeholders.
War on the Rocks published on 24 January 2024 an analysis titled "A Port Deal Puts the Horn of Africa on the Brink" by Caleb Weiss, Bridgeway Foundation, and James Barnett, Hudson Institute.
This analysis focuses on the implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the internal situation in Somalia and Somaliland. It acknowledges that neither Somalia nor Somaliland has the ability to wage a conventional war against any potential opponent. The al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab terrorist movement in Somalia and the Somali government oppose the MOU. Al-Shabaab sees the MOU as a way to mobilize additional support for its goals from the wider Somali population. The MOU has also upended politics in Somaliland.
The South China Morning Post published on 14 January 2024 an article titled "China Set to Stay on Neutral Ground as a Red Sea Storm Brews Over Ethiopia's Port Deal with Somalia" by Jevans Nyabiage.
China supports the territorial integrity of Somalia and urges that countries in the Horn of Africa resolve their disagreement over the recent Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) through dialogue. The US position is similar. The MOU introduces, however, a new complicating factor in the politics of the countries in the Horn of Africa and those bordering the Red Sea.
The BBC published on 8 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Makes Waves in Horn of Africa" by Damian Zane.
Somaliland's defense minister resigned over the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal for access to the Gulf of Aden and a land lease for a military base. The minister complained that he had not been consulted about the deal.
The BBC published on 9 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia-Somaliland Army Chiefs Meet Amid Regional Tensions" by Hanna Temuari.
On 8 January, the army chiefs of Ethiopia and Somaliland met in Addis Ababa to discuss ways to work together.
Reuters published on 7 January 2024 an article titled "Somalia President Signs Law Nullifying Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal" by Abdi Sheikh.
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a law nullifying a memorandum of understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia to grant access to the Gulf of Aden and to lease land for a coastal military base in return for recognition of Somaliland as an independent nation. There was no immediate response from Ethiopia or Somaliland.
Comment: The legal implications of this nullification are not clear. On the one hand, Somaliland does not have international recognition. On the other hand, Somalia does not exercise physical control over Somaliland. This may be an issue for international lawyers.
The media consistently refer to this memorandum of understanding as providing Ethiopian access to the Red Sea without seeming to appreciate that the coast of Somaliland is on the Gulf of Aden. Of course, access to the Gulf of Aden will also permit access to the Red Sea, but Ethiopia's goal is not just access to the Red Sea but to cease being the world's most populous landlocked nation. Access to Somaliland's Berbera port and the Gulf of Aden would give Ethiopia access to the entire Indian Ocean and beyond.
The Washington Post published on 8 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Controversial Quest for the Sea" by Ishaan Tharoor.
The article looks at the arguments on various sides of the controversial topic without taking a strong position on any side.
African Business published on 4 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Landmark Red Sea Deal with Somaliland Sparks Diplomatic Row" by Ben Payton.
The article usefully highlights some of the outstanding questions surrounding the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland. More clarity is needed before it is possible to assess accurately the significance of this MOU.
Comment: The article comments that in 2019 Somaliland "established diplomatic relations with Taiwan." Somaliland accepted a "Taiwan Representative Office," which falls short of full diplomatic relations. The office in Hargeisa is not an embassy as Taiwan has, for example, in Eswatini.
Aljazeera published on 4 January 2024 an article titled "Ambiguous Ethiopia Port Deal Fuels Uncertainty over Somaliland Statehood" by Zecharias Zelalem.
The article emphasizes that the issue of Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland seems to have no date attached to it. Other elements of the memorandum of understanding, which has not yet been published, are also ambiguous.
The Economist published on 2 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Gambit for a Port Is Unsettling a Volatile Region."
The article lays out the implications for the wider region of the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland that gives Ethiopia access to the port of Berbera and a 50-year lease for a military base in the Gulf of Aden in exchange for recognition of Somaliland and shares in Ethiopian Airlines.
Martin Plaut, a journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, posted on 2 January 2024 a commentary titled "The Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal: Ending a Crisis or Beginning Another?" Acknowledging there is much we do not yet know about the unpublished memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Plaut notes some of the pitfalls in the deal.
