War on the Rocks published on 24 January 2024 an analysis titled "A Port Deal Puts the Horn of Africa on the Brink" by Caleb Weiss, Bridgeway Foundation, and James Barnett, Hudson Institute.
This analysis focuses on the implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the internal situation in Somalia and Somaliland. It acknowledges that neither Somalia nor Somaliland has the ability to wage a conventional war against any potential opponent. The al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab terrorist movement in Somalia and the Somali government oppose the MOU. Al-Shabaab sees the MOU as a way to mobilize additional support for its goals from the wider Somali population. The MOU has also upended politics in Somaliland.
