The Pros and Cons of Diplomatic Recognition of Somaliland

 Newsweek posted on 9 September 2025 an article titled "This Aspiring Nation Wants to Be Trump's New Weapon Against China in Africa" by Tom O'Connor.  

The author examines the arguments for and against recognition of the breakaway Somaliland government, which now hosts almost a dozen liaison offices but has not been officially recognized by any country.  One theme in the argument favoring US recognition of Somaliland is that it would provide an ally for Washington in its competition with Beijing in Africa.   

Senator Cruz Calls for Recognition of Somaliland

 Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas and chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa, sent a letter to President Trump on 14 August 2025 urging that the administration formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state.

Somalia's Forum on Political Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 August 2025 an article titled "The National Consultative Forum and the Future of Somalia's Political Landscape."

In mid-June, the Somali government hosted the National Consultative Forum in an effort to build national consensus and resolve the current political stalemate.  The Forum failed to receive the level of regional or international endorsement the Somali government had anticipated.  Puntland and Jubaland states boycotted the Forum. 

China's Third Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 3 August 2025 an article titled "China in the Horn of Africa."

Uganda hosted on 29 August the 3rd Conference on Peace and Development with attendance by officials from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and China's Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Xue Bing.  China provided its analysis of the Horn of Africa's security challenges. 

Comment:  As with the previous two conferences, this appears to have been a talk shop with no tangible programs agreed upon for actually resolving conflict in the Horn of Africa.  

Somaliland and Taiwan Sign Coast Guard Cooperation Agreement

 Focus Taiwan published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Taiwan, Somaliland Sign Coast Guard Cooperation Deal."

Somaliland's foreign minister met with Taiwan's president in Taipei last week when they signed a coast guard cooperation agreement involving training and exercises.  

Somalia's State-building Program under Pressure

 The Economist published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Somalia's State-building Project Is in Tatters."

For the past 8 months local forces from the federal state of Puntland, backed with airstrikes by the US and UAE, have been waging an all-out and successful war against the Islamic State. On the other hand, the central government has been losing ground in its battle with al-Shabaab and relations between Mogadishu and the federal states have deteriorated.  

Tigray Secession Movement in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 July 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Needs Democracy Before Secession" by Abrar Fitwi, St. Mary's College in Indiana.  

The author comments on the agenda of the recently created Tigrayan diaspora advocacy group called Voice of Independent Tigray (VIT) based in Maryland.  While the author does not oppose self-determination, he argues that it must be based on a democratic foundation or it will become something hollow or worse, oppressive.  

Comment:  Tigrayans need to ask themselves at least one more question.  Would a democratic and independent Tigray be economically viable or just another small, landlocked state largely dependent on foreign assistance?   

Ethiopia: Unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 July 2025 a commentary titled "Red Sea Reckonings: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Unraveling of Pretoria" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.

The Pretoria Agreement, signed in 2022, has not resulted in stability in Ethiopia.  Instead, alliances are fraying, old rivalries are reigniting, and fragile new fault lines are emerging.  A deterioration in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea follows an effort by Addis Ababa to develop an outlet to the Red Sea.

Gulf State Engagement in East Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 8 July 2025 a study titled "Mapping Gulf State Actors' Expanding Engagements in East Africa."

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have become the leading sources of capital, private sector engagement, and weapons flows into East Africa in recent years.  The UAE is by far the most engaged actor in East Africa with $47 billion in projects and about 60 percent of all Gulf region capital inflows. Saudi Arabia is second with an estimated $16 billion in investments across East Africa.

Turkiye's Growing Presence in Somalia Results in Supporters and Detractors

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 16 June 2025 a commentary titled "Stakes and Potential Consequences of the Growing Turkish Engagement in Somalia."

Turkiye has been steadily increasing its security, political, and economic engagement in Somalia.  This has resulted in a debate among Somalis.  Some view Turkiye's presence favorably, while others express concerns over its depth and implications.   

Somaliland: Diplomatic Recognition Remains Elusive

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 June 2025 a 30-minute podcast titled "Somaliland's Moment?" with Guleid Ahmed Jama, lawyer and political commentator based in Hargeisa, and host Alan Boswell.  

The Somaliland-Ethiopia memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in 2024 was never clear to most Somalilanders.  There was subsequently a change of government in Somaliland, making the situation even less clear although Hargeisa continues to seek diplomatic recognition.  In any event, the MOU is now on a back burner and negotiations with Ethiopia concerning the MOU have not yet resumed under the new government in Hargeisa.

The more recent question is whether the Trump administration is willing to give Somaliland diplomatic recognition in exchange for military use of air and port facilities at Berbera on Somaliland's coast.  The US military has expressed interest but there has been no movement so far by the Trump administration.  

China Pressures South Africa to Downgrade Taiwan Office

 The South China Morning Post published on 24 May 2025 an article titled "South Africa Downgrades Taiwan's Representative Office as It Deepens Ties with Beijing" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Under pressure from Beijing, South Africa has asked Taiwan to move its office from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial capital of Johannesburg and downgrade it from a liaison office to a trade office.  Taipei has resisted the move so far.   

Somaliland, US, China, and Taiwan

 The China Global South Project posted on 16 May 2025 a 55-minute podcast titled "Somaliland's Strategic Gamble: Betting on Trump, Backing Taiwan, Defying China" hosted by Eric Orlander and Cobus van Staden with Moustafa Ahmad and Sacad Muhumed, both Somaliland foreign policy researchers in Hargeisa.

Most of the podcast, which also includes a written transcript, focuses on the complex nexus of Somaliland's relationship with Taiwan, Beijing's reaction to that relationship, speculation that the Trump administration might recognize Somaliland, and how all of this would play out in the Horn of Africa and in China.  It's complicated.  

Security Concerns in Somalia

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 29 April 2025 an analysis titled "Assessment of Somalia's Security Landscape and Prospects of Counterterrorism Efforts."

Somalia is likely to face a continuing back-and-forth conflict situation with al-Shabaab terrorists.  This prospect decreases Somalia's ability to recover politically and economically.  It also raises the possibility of "Afghanization" should the balance of power shift in favor of al-Shabaab.  

Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations: Try Soft Power

 Ethiopia Insight published on 25 April 2025 a commentary titled "Give Soft Power a Chance" by Nebiyu Daniel Meshesha, former Ethiopian diplomat. 

While Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea is economically and strategically justified, its reliance on confrontational rhetoric and unpredictable hard power risks alienating neighbors, destabilizing the Horn of Africa, and threatening to make Addis Ababa diplomatically vulnerable.  Ethiopia should seek Red Sea access through persuasion and not coercion.  

Somaliland To Press Trump Administration for Recognition

 The New York Times published on 12 April 2025 an article titled "African Breakaway State Offers U.S. a Chance to Stick It to China" by Abdi Latif Dahir and Joao Silva.

Somaliland, which unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has reportedly offered the United States the option of establishing a military base in exchange for diplomatic recognition.  Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi plans to visit Washington in the coming months when he will make the case for recognition, which is already supported by some Republican members of Congress.  

Implications for the Region of Ethiopia-Somalia Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 26 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Somalia Rapprochement and Its Potential Geopolitical Implications."

Somalia's recent rapprochement with Ethiopia could lead to a more balanced foreign policy, reducing Mogadishu's involvement in regional power struggles.  Ethiopia has strengthened its military presence and security role in Somalia while Egypt will have a smaller presence than originally projected.  Ethiopia has frozen but not abandoned its MOU with Somaliland.  

Somalia Offers Port Deal to US

 Semafor published on 28 March 2025 an article titled "Somalia Offers US 'Control' over Strategic Ports" by Amanda Sperber.  

Somalia's government has offered the United States "exclusive operational control" over strategic ports on the Gulf of Aden in an effort to preclude a decision by Washington to recognize the independence of Somaliland.  The offer includes the port of Berbera under the control of Somaliland and Bosaso under the control of Puntland.  

Edging Towards Another Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict?

 World Politics Review published on 27 March 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Are Back on a War Footing" by Fred Harter, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

A power struggle in Tigray Region between Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda is the proximate cause of the current crisis in Ethiopia, but a more explosive dynamic is the escalating rivalry between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara.  In February, Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization, and Ethiopia has been moving military equipment and troops to its border with Eritrea.

Resettle Gazans in Horn of Africa? Really Bad Idea

 Reuters published on 14 March 2025 an article titled "Somalia and Somaliland Say No Talks on Resettling Palestinians from Gaza."

The Associated Press quoted US and Israeli officials as saying their governments had contacted officials from Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland to discuss their reaction to resettling Palestinians from Gaza.  Sudanese and Somali officials responded they were unaware of any such contact but quickly rejected any such proposal.  Somaliland officials also were unaware of any contact about resettlement.  

Comment:  Whether contact was or was not made, this is a really bad idea.  War-torn Sudan and al-Shabaab-threatened Somalia are no place to go. Resettling Gazans in Somaliland would further complicate the fraught relationship between Somalia and Somaliland.  And what about the Gazans?  They do not appear to have any interest in being forcibly moved to the Horn of Africa.